ATL: TEN - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10145
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#381 Postby Blown Away » Thu Aug 17, 2017 10:44 am

SouthFLTropics wrote:I think the proximity of PTC 9 may be an issue in the early going. WXMAN mentioned this possibility on the discussion board.


PTC 9 not much better organization, per GFS, early going...
1 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Top
User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4236
Age: 50
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#382 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 17, 2017 10:46 am

60 Hours

Image
0 likes   
Fourth Generation Florida Native

Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
Top
User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4236
Age: 50
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#383 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 17, 2017 10:49 am

72 Hours...Not much change from 06z

Image
0 likes   
Fourth Generation Florida Native

Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
Top
User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23691
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#384 Postby gatorcane » Thu Aug 17, 2017 10:51 am

Despite having a small upper anticyclone over 92L and a larger one over 91L, GFS refuses to show development of both.

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4236
Age: 50
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#385 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 17, 2017 10:53 am

84 Hours...Just a gnats hair south of the 06z position

Image
0 likes   
Fourth Generation Florida Native

Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
Top
User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10145
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#386 Postby Blown Away » Thu Aug 17, 2017 10:54 am

12z GFS... Still TW through 84 hrs... Moisture envelope a little bigger than previous runs...
0 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Top
AxaltaRacing24
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1753
Age: 25
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:14 am
Location: Jupiter, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#387 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Thu Aug 17, 2017 10:55 am

The GFS does not like the North Atlantic this season...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4236
Age: 50
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#388 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 17, 2017 10:58 am

96 Hours...No love for 92L :sadly:

Image
2 likes   
Fourth Generation Florida Native

Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
Top
sma10
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1710
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2005 1:13 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#389 Postby sma10 » Thu Aug 17, 2017 10:59 am

Quite comical actually - thru 96hrs, GFS says 91L, 92L and future 93L is a whole bunch of nothing. Looks like the NHC forecasters may have to go old school the next few days and nowcast with their eyes.
0 likes   
Top
AxaltaRacing24
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1753
Age: 25
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:14 am
Location: Jupiter, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#390 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Thu Aug 17, 2017 11:00 am

sma10 wrote:Quite comical actually - thru 96hrs, GFS says 91L, 92L and future 93L is a whole bunch of nothing. Looks like the NHC forecasters may have to go old school the next few days and nowcast with their eyes.

This is the same model that did not develop Gert and then realized it was there about a day after it formed.
Last edited by AxaltaRacing24 on Thu Aug 17, 2017 11:00 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Hurricaneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7351
Age: 45
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
Location: central florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#391 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Aug 17, 2017 11:00 am

SouthFLTropics wrote:96 Hours...No love for 92L :sadly:

Image

Every other model is on board so it's probably something wrong in the GFS programming
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4236
Age: 50
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#392 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 17, 2017 11:02 am

108 Hours...And also notice that future 93L sparks to life

Image
0 likes   
Fourth Generation Florida Native

Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
Top
WeatherEmperor
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4806
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:54 pm
Location: South Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#393 Postby WeatherEmperor » Thu Aug 17, 2017 11:02 am

Hurricaneman wrote:
SouthFLTropics wrote:96 Hours...No love for 92L :sadly:

Image

Every other model is on board so it's probably something wrong in the GFS programming


The Navgem also show very little development so the GFS is not alone in what it shows


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10145
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#394 Postby Blown Away » Thu Aug 17, 2017 11:02 am

12z GFS... TW approaching SFL @114 hrs... Maybe a tad slower and S of 06z... Track is towards SFL, but fortunately intensity is a nice TW moving through... 8-)
0 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Top
User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4236
Age: 50
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#395 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 17, 2017 11:04 am

120 Hours...South Florida Landfall...of a Tropical Wave :bored:

Image
0 likes   
Fourth Generation Florida Native

Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
Top
User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9621
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: Not a state-caster

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#396 Postby Steve » Thu Aug 17, 2017 11:05 am

gatorcane wrote:Despite having a small upper anticyclone over 92L and a larger one over 91L, GFS refuses to show development of both.



GFS has the Upper Level Low deep into the Gulf backing W to the TX Coast ahead of 91L (and 92L). Pattern reversal is on the table there as it has a strong high coming down off the SE Coast and creating a block situation for 92L. It doesn't show development through 120 hours, but that's an interesting setup regardless of the proximity to 91L.

250-850mb wind shear with low centers:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=604
Last edited by Steve on Thu Aug 17, 2017 11:08 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
adam0983

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#397 Postby adam0983 » Thu Aug 17, 2017 11:07 am

Good keep it weak no one needs this storm. Just an opinion not a forecast.
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4236
Age: 50
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#398 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 17, 2017 11:07 am

132 Hours

Image
0 likes   
Fourth Generation Florida Native

Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
Top
User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9621
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: Not a state-caster

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#399 Postby Steve » Thu Aug 17, 2017 11:09 am

SouthFLTropics wrote:132 Hours

Image


That's astonishing. I'll bet anyone a $100.00 site donation that there is more activity at 132 hours than the GFS is leading on. Anybody.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4236
Age: 50
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#400 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 17, 2017 11:11 am

Steve wrote:
SouthFLTropics wrote:132 Hours

Image


That's astonishing. I'll bet anyone a $100.00 site donation that there is more activity at 132 hours than the GFS is leading on. Anybody.


I'm not taking that bet...not after seeing the cyclogenesis performance of the models on Gert.
2 likes   
Fourth Generation Florida Native

Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2017”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google Adsense [Bot], Stormybajan and 8 guests