ATL: HARVEY - Models
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
Have to agree with a more northerly shift in the models..going off nothing but climatogy as we approach the first of Sept. if I was a Texas person I would be watching this closely IMO
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
very surprised NAVGEM dropped this entirely, after going for a hurricane the previous run
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
The NAVGEM is Dr Masters favorite and I do tend to favor it over other models. Not the EURO of course.. 

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- Hurricaneman
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
If I lived anywhere in Texas I would keep an eye out for this the next 7 to 10 days as the steering pattern as modeled could change leading to a more northward adjustment
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models


The @48hrs intensity forecasts is of interest atm,anywhere from a TD to low end cane.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
ROCK wrote:Have to agree with a more northerly shift in the models..going off nothing but climatogy as we approach the first of Sept. if I was a Texas person I would be watching this closely IMO
We also have one other factor we can go on....Remember Franklin's genesis took place at about 12.5 latitude, whereas 91L's genesis should take place at about 15 or 16 latitude. I'm gonna be carefully looking for any at all north component to 91L's movement over the coming days.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

As a rule of thumb a system will track towards the lower pressure trough.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
COAMPS takes it to Cat1 just before skirting the Honduran coast.


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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
GCANE wrote:COAMPS takes it to Cat1 just before skirting the Honduran coast.
This scenario is possible because conditions are more favorable this time of year in that general area ! I expect a category 2 out of this only because small systems organize faster
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
Thetxhurricanemaster wrote:GCANE wrote:COAMPS takes it to Cat1 just before skirting the Honduran coast.
This scenario is possible because conditions are more favorable this time of year in that general area ! I expect a category 2 out of this only because small systems organize faster
I agree.
Actually, looking at that buoy, sustained winds are now 27 knots.
Very likely this is already 09L.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
GCANE wrote:Thetxhurricanemaster wrote:GCANE wrote:COAMPS takes it to Cat1 just before skirting the Honduran coast.
This scenario is possible because conditions are more favorable this time of year in that general area ! I expect a category 2 out of this only because small systems organize faster
I agree.
Actually, looking at that buoy, sustained winds are now 27 knots.
Very likely this is already 09L.
Yeah the NHC might upgrade it at 11 or wait for recon
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
ROCK wrote:The NAVGEM is Dr Masters favorite and I do tend to favor it over other models. Not the EURO of course..
How can you not trust the Navy?

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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Models
GFS doubling down on degeneration into a wave
despite an upper ridge over it
despite an upper ridge over it
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Models
GFS, I just don't get why it's been so bad this year.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Models
06Z GFS wants to take an open wave into CA and then develop remains in the EPAC...guess it didn't get the memo....
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Models
rock, do you think this will be mexico bound no matter what? I usually go by climatology but I don't know if that will happen this time.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Models
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 13.1N 54.2W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 17.08.2017 0 13.1N 54.2W 1010 26
0000UTC 18.08.2017 12 13.5N 56.6W 1009 29
1200UTC 18.08.2017 24 13.3N 60.6W 1006 33
0000UTC 19.08.2017 36 13.4N 63.9W 1004 33
1200UTC 19.08.2017 48 13.8N 67.5W 1003 35
0000UTC 20.08.2017 60 14.2N 71.2W 1003 34
1200UTC 20.08.2017 72 14.0N 75.5W 1001 39
0000UTC 21.08.2017 84 14.3N 79.4W 997 40
1200UTC 21.08.2017 96 14.5N 82.9W 992 47
0000UTC 22.08.2017 108 15.2N 86.0W 1004 36
1200UTC 22.08.2017 120 16.0N 88.6W 1002 38
0000UTC 23.08.2017 132 16.2N 90.3W 1005 30
1200UTC 23.08.2017 144 17.3N 91.6W 1007 24
UKMET stronger and into Nicaragua
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 17.08.2017 0 13.1N 54.2W 1010 26
0000UTC 18.08.2017 12 13.5N 56.6W 1009 29
1200UTC 18.08.2017 24 13.3N 60.6W 1006 33
0000UTC 19.08.2017 36 13.4N 63.9W 1004 33
1200UTC 19.08.2017 48 13.8N 67.5W 1003 35
0000UTC 20.08.2017 60 14.2N 71.2W 1003 34
1200UTC 20.08.2017 72 14.0N 75.5W 1001 39
0000UTC 21.08.2017 84 14.3N 79.4W 997 40
1200UTC 21.08.2017 96 14.5N 82.9W 992 47
0000UTC 22.08.2017 108 15.2N 86.0W 1004 36
1200UTC 22.08.2017 120 16.0N 88.6W 1002 38
0000UTC 23.08.2017 132 16.2N 90.3W 1005 30
1200UTC 23.08.2017 144 17.3N 91.6W 1007 24
UKMET stronger and into Nicaragua
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Models
12Z CMC much further up the Yuc and into BOC..
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Models
stormlover2013 wrote:rock, do you think this will be mexico bound no matter what? I usually go by climatology but I don't know if that will happen this time.
eh leaning MX bound but really waiting on the 12Z EURO...
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