ATL: HARVEY - Models

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ROCK
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#501 Postby ROCK » Wed Aug 16, 2017 8:48 pm

Have to agree with a more northerly shift in the models..going off nothing but climatogy as we approach the first of Sept. if I was a Texas person I would be watching this closely IMO
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#502 Postby Alyono » Wed Aug 16, 2017 8:57 pm

very surprised NAVGEM dropped this entirely, after going for a hurricane the previous run
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#503 Postby ROCK » Wed Aug 16, 2017 9:09 pm

The NAVGEM is Dr Masters favorite and I do tend to favor it over other models. Not the EURO of course.. :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#504 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Aug 16, 2017 9:13 pm

If I lived anywhere in Texas I would keep an eye out for this the next 7 to 10 days as the steering pattern as modeled could change leading to a more northward adjustment
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Digital-TC-Chaser

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#505 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Wed Aug 16, 2017 9:20 pm

Image
Image
The @48hrs intensity forecasts is of interest atm,anywhere from a TD to low end cane.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#506 Postby hurricanehunter69 » Wed Aug 16, 2017 10:38 pm

ROCK wrote:Have to agree with a more northerly shift in the models..going off nothing but climatogy as we approach the first of Sept. if I was a Texas person I would be watching this closely IMO

We also have one other factor we can go on....Remember Franklin's genesis took place at about 12.5 latitude, whereas 91L's genesis should take place at about 15 or 16 latitude. I'm gonna be carefully looking for any at all north component to 91L's movement over the coming days.
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Digital-TC-Chaser

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#507 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Wed Aug 16, 2017 11:20 pm

Image
As a rule of thumb a system will track towards the lower pressure trough.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#508 Postby GCANE » Thu Aug 17, 2017 5:27 am

COAMPS takes it to Cat1 just before skirting the Honduran coast.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#509 Postby Thetxhurricanemaster » Thu Aug 17, 2017 5:36 am

GCANE wrote:COAMPS takes it to Cat1 just before skirting the Honduran coast.

Image

This scenario is possible because conditions are more favorable this time of year in that general area ! I expect a category 2 out of this only because small systems organize faster
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#510 Postby GCANE » Thu Aug 17, 2017 5:40 am

Thetxhurricanemaster wrote:
GCANE wrote:COAMPS takes it to Cat1 just before skirting the Honduran coast.


This scenario is possible because conditions are more favorable this time of year in that general area ! I expect a category 2 out of this only because small systems organize faster


I agree.
Actually, looking at that buoy, sustained winds are now 27 knots.
Very likely this is already 09L.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#511 Postby Thetxhurricanemaster » Thu Aug 17, 2017 5:41 am

GCANE wrote:
Thetxhurricanemaster wrote:
GCANE wrote:COAMPS takes it to Cat1 just before skirting the Honduran coast.


This scenario is possible because conditions are more favorable this time of year in that general area ! I expect a category 2 out of this only because small systems organize faster


I agree.
Actually, looking at that buoy, sustained winds are now 27 knots.
Very likely this is already 09L.

Yeah the NHC might upgrade it at 11 or wait for recon
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#512 Postby Tireman4 » Thu Aug 17, 2017 9:37 am

ROCK wrote:The NAVGEM is Dr Masters favorite and I do tend to favor it over other models. Not the EURO of course.. :lol:


How can you not trust the Navy? :)
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Models

#513 Postby ROCK » Thu Aug 17, 2017 10:41 am

06Z HWRF...further north on the Yuc.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Models

#514 Postby Alyono » Thu Aug 17, 2017 10:46 am

GFS doubling down on degeneration into a wave

despite an upper ridge over it
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stormlover2013

Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Models

#515 Postby stormlover2013 » Thu Aug 17, 2017 10:53 am

GFS, I just don't get why it's been so bad this year.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Models

#516 Postby ROCK » Thu Aug 17, 2017 11:06 am

06Z GFS wants to take an open wave into CA and then develop remains in the EPAC...guess it didn't get the memo....
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stormlover2013

Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Models

#517 Postby stormlover2013 » Thu Aug 17, 2017 11:08 am

rock, do you think this will be mexico bound no matter what? I usually go by climatology but I don't know if that will happen this time.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Models

#518 Postby Alyono » Thu Aug 17, 2017 11:22 am

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 13.1N 54.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 17.08.2017 0 13.1N 54.2W 1010 26
0000UTC 18.08.2017 12 13.5N 56.6W 1009 29
1200UTC 18.08.2017 24 13.3N 60.6W 1006 33
0000UTC 19.08.2017 36 13.4N 63.9W 1004 33
1200UTC 19.08.2017 48 13.8N 67.5W 1003 35
0000UTC 20.08.2017 60 14.2N 71.2W 1003 34
1200UTC 20.08.2017 72 14.0N 75.5W 1001 39
0000UTC 21.08.2017 84 14.3N 79.4W 997 40
1200UTC 21.08.2017 96 14.5N 82.9W 992 47
0000UTC 22.08.2017 108 15.2N 86.0W 1004 36
1200UTC 22.08.2017 120 16.0N 88.6W 1002 38
0000UTC 23.08.2017 132 16.2N 90.3W 1005 30
1200UTC 23.08.2017 144 17.3N 91.6W 1007 24

UKMET stronger and into Nicaragua
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Models

#519 Postby ROCK » Thu Aug 17, 2017 12:45 pm

12Z CMC much further up the Yuc and into BOC..

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Models

#520 Postby ROCK » Thu Aug 17, 2017 12:47 pm

stormlover2013 wrote:rock, do you think this will be mexico bound no matter what? I usually go by climatology but I don't know if that will happen this time.


eh leaning MX bound but really waiting on the 12Z EURO...
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