ATL: TEN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[nativefloridian]

Just about game over based on those shear values but you never know.

No not really - i only see one value greater than 20 kts - and this is one model run. Don't forget these values are difficult to forecast. In addition, the upper level divergence caused by shear will maintain heavy convection so when it relaxes you have conditions favorable for low pressure to develop (or redevelop). Will it struggle the next few days - no doubt. Will probably save FL from a major cane impact.

Shear doesn't look that catastrophic according to this map:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=sht&zoom=&time=

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

Just about game over based on those shear values but you never know.

No not really - i only see one value greater than 20 kts - and this is one model run. Don't forget these values are difficult to forecast. In addition, the upper level divergence caused by shear will maintain heavy convection so when it relaxes you have conditions favorable for low pressure to develop (or redevelop). Will it struggle the next few days - no doubt. Will probably save FL from a major cane impact.

Shear doesn't look that catastrophic according to this map:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=sht&zoom=&time=

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

This thing is about to get destroyed by shear

[nativefloridian]

No not really - i only see one value greater than 20 kts - and this is one model run. Don't forget these values are difficult to forecast. In addition, the upper level divergence caused by shear will maintain heavy convection so when it relaxes you have conditions favorable for low pressure to develop (or redevelop). Will it struggle the next few days - no doubt. Will probably save FL from a major cane impact.

Shear doesn't look that catastrophic according to this map:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=sht&zoom=&time=

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

This thing is about to get destroyed by shear

I guess we'll just have to wait and see what happens.....like we do with everything we track. I enjoy reading other's opinions and doing a little checking myself, despite my limited knowledge. So I really appreciate all the more knowledgeable weather people posting on this site as I've learned quite a bit over the years.

[Weatherboy1]

I would tend to agree with the comment earlier this has probably been a TD since very late yesterday/early this morning. Clearly, there is a risk you designate it and then it just gets sheared apart and you downgrade it a day later. But in my unprofessional opinion, it deserves a number. As for track, models definitely shifting more to the N today. Assuming 92 survives, not clear yet if it will be a recurve or a FL threat yet ...

[SouthFLTropics]

The shear is taking a toll...If you look on visible it looks like we are about to see the LLC be exposed on the west side of the convection. It should be noted that while the convection is blowing off, the circulation still looks pretty strong.

[p1nheadlarry]

I would tend to agree with the comment earlier this has probably been a TD since very late yesterday/early this morning. Clearly, there is a risk you designate it and then it just gets sheared apart and you downgrade it a day later. But in my unprofessional opinion, it deserves a number. As for track, models definitely shifting more to the N today. Assuming 92 survives, not clear yet if it will be a recurve or a FL threat yet ...

Wouldn't a north shift be bad for 92L? Would need to stay as far from the upper low to it's north [and possibly Harvey] as possible. Maybe due to the midlevel high to the west?

[Blown Away]

MeteoMark very optimistic about Harvey/92L...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R_w_Y0-ndOE

[sma10]

The TUTT immediately to its north is of little long - term concern I believe. 92L will be west of its influence in a matter of hours.

The ull currently developing at 30N 60W, and dropping fast, is forecast by the GFS to bump right into 92L tomorrow with an intersection point around 20N 60W. Will this evolve exactly as predicted? The GFS says they will be basically interlocked for days. I suppose if it's been modeled accurately 92L will suffer greatly. But there is definitely still room for "what if"

[hd44]

This has been a TD since yesterday evening in my opinion. Convection is sustaining over the center as well. This should be upgraded soon.

One thing is for sure shear is enhancing the convection as we thought it would.

i believe they want to give it the rest of the day, shear going up, why designate only to declassify...lets see..so far its proven to be one of these systems thats a fighter...each one of these entities is different in the way it responds

Sorry don't agree. If it is a td even for 24 hours they should say so. Lots of times this happened before look at td 10 in 2005.

[jlauderdal]

MeteoMark very optimistic about Harvey/92L...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R_w_Y0-ndOE

as bullish as they come..

[jlauderdal]

This has been a TD since yesterday evening in my opinion. Convection is sustaining over the center as well. This should be upgraded soon.

One thing is for sure shear is enhancing the convection as we thought it would.

i believe they want to give it the rest of the day, shear going up, why designate only to declassify...lets see..so far its proven to be one of these systems thats a fighter...each one of these entities is different in the way it responds

Sorry don't agree. If it is a td even for 24 hours they should say so. Lots of times this happened before look at td 10 in 2005.

fair enough..i will trust your info on td 10 from 2005

[sma10]

MeteoMark very optimistic about Harvey/92L...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R_w_Y0-ndOE

Haha, never heard of this guy

[Blown Away]

Convection still good for an Invest...

[SFLcane]

lol..guess upper level lows and shear aren't apparent to him.

[SFLcane]

ouch look at the outflow boundaries coming out of this thing. Certainly not indicative of a developing cyclone.

 https://twitter.com/gdimeweather/status/898559716753682433

[SFLcane]

I for one expect probs to be lowered this afternoon if not this evening.

[CycloneCaptain]

MeteoMark very optimistic about Harvey/92L...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R_w_Y0-ndOE

He believes 92l will become a cat 1 hurricane and hit Florida, surprising due to wind shear in my opinion.

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

I for one expect probs to be lowered this afternoon if not this evening.

I agree it's getting sheared already and the shear just started so this likely won't survive

[OuterBanker]

It does appear it’s about to decouple. But I wouldn’t write it off until the llc dissipates. Was not Gert a naked swirl until after 60w? It hasn’t even passed 55 w. Not ready to write its epitaph just yet.

[Blown Away]

Cool outflow boundaries...