ATL: TEN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[gatorcane]

I'd put my money on the northern vort. Been head faked by MLCs too many times.

Not sure actually this time. The GFS has me doubting the current 92l vort (northern) with run after run developing southern vort north of Puerto Rico. Convection building over top of that southern vort. Judging by the sat appearance trends, we are about to have two separate entities. You can see the clouds clearing inbetween the two areas:

[Alyono]

have to keep an eye on Harvey. A stronger Harvey in the BOC would likely mean more shear for this near Florida. If harvey does nothing, the chance of this developing goes up quite a bit

[SFLcane]

have to keep an eye on Harvey. A stronger Harvey in the BOC would likely mean more shear for this near Florida. If harvey does nothing, the chance of this developing goes up quite a bit

well it certainly does not look like what was Harvey is developing anytime soon.

[Blown Away]

I'd put my money on the northern vort. Been head faked by MLCs too many times.

Watch 18z GFS... You will see the area we've been tracking dissipate over Central Florida/Bahamas and the MLC near PR moves into the SE Bahamas and develops... I think the PR MLC/area is what becomes the strong vorticity down the road... JMHO

[hd44]

Both 92l/ and ex Harvey are clearly likely to form. Intensity on each remains sketchy . Btw I would focus on the mid level spin north of PR. The low level vort is supposed to diminish. This mid level vort which is what will become a tropical cyclone most likely.

[floridasun78]

have to keep an eye on Harvey. A stronger Harvey in the BOC would likely mean more shear for this near Florida. If harvey does nothing, the chance of this developing goes up quite a bit

looking ex harvey look it drying out as going central America or close to it i feel wont be ts again

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

AL, 92, 2017082100, , BEST, 0, 228N, 705W, 25, 1014, DB

[Blown Away]

00z Best Track:

AL, 92, 2017082100, , BEST, 0, 228N, 705W, 25, 1014, DB

Well that clears it up, not going with the PR area...

[Blown Away]

We will see...

[Bocadude85]

So far 92L seems to behaving just as the models forecasted.

[sma10]

I'm in the "major development unlikely" camp, but there are elements of fascination about this system that has my interest peaked this week:

1 - cyclogenesis occurring right near the coast. This is something that doesn't occur all that often in this particular area, and looks like perhaps a 50/50 venture at this time. And naturally, that adds a whole element of uncertainty to everything

2 - competing centers? Wouldn't normally put too much stock into that 2nd area near PR, except the GFS has been persistent in developing that specific area for several runs. That area is further south and east meaning quite a bit more ocean to traverse. Yet another potential unknown variable

3 - stalling speed. The only thing all models agree on is a sharp decrease in forward speed nearing the coast, indeed a virtual stall. And we all know that once a system stalls, a tremendous amount of uncertainty is introduced.

I suppose the most likely outcome this week is a big rainmaker, with perhaps some minor development to TD. But i like the uncertainty factor this week - sorta old school.

[Hurricaneman]

So far 92L seems to behaving just as the models forecasted.

I see no circulation of any kind where the NHC has this, most likely where we've been following the MLC north of PR

[gatorcane]

Convection really blowing up in both north and south areas:

[Evil Jeremy]

Yeah that MLC near PR isn't as decaying as I first thought. Checking 700mb and 500mb vorticitiy graphs over the past 9 hours, the southern spin is working it's way down the atmosphere.

[Nimbus]

Mid level vort has had some intense towers building near the center of circulation.
That could mean that it is now coupled with surface inflow and is a separate self sustaining system.
Also could be an optical illusion, I lost my last bet over a model interpretation and had to make a donation to Storm2k so...

[floridasun78]

both weak low by PR and one east of central bahamas having increase storms past few hours

[AxaltaRacing24]

both weak low by PR and one east of central bahamas having increase storms past few hours

Yep. Who wins this battle?

[rog]

What are the chances we have two seperate systems develop from this? The one near PR going into the gulf and the northern one ending up somewhere off the EC would be an unlikely but interesting scenario.

[blp]

Yeah that MLC near PR isn't as decaying as I first thought. Checking 700mb and 500mb vorticitiy graphs over the past 9 hours, the southern spin is working it's way down the atmosphere.

Yes I see the SE one working its way down to the 700mb level while I also see the NW one weakening considerably at the 700mb level. I think the SE one though is in better position to develop more than the NW one since it will be further away from the decaying ULL and have more time over water.

700mb 5pm:



700mb 8pm:

[stormreader]

Yeah that MLC near PR isn't as decaying as I first thought. Checking 700mb and 500mb vorticitiy graphs over the past 9 hours, the southern spin is working it's way down the atmosphere.

It really is interesting. Can't remember the last time I saw two well established competitive vortices from one system (not counting young waves just off African coast). Northern vort larger, would appear more dominant, well established, but it's facing more shear. Southern vort seems to have nestled into a relatively low amount of shear area just north of Puerto Rico. It actually looks more promising right now. If it does take over, wonder how that might affect track?