I'm in the "major development unlikely" camp, but there are elements of fascination about this system that has my interest peaked this week:
1 - cyclogenesis occurring right near the coast. This is something that doesn't occur all that often in this particular area, and looks like perhaps a 50/50 venture at this time. And naturally, that adds a whole element of uncertainty to everything
2 - competing centers? Wouldn't normally put too much stock into that 2nd area near PR, except the GFS has been persistent in developing that specific area for several runs. That area is further south and east meaning quite a bit more ocean to traverse. Yet another potential unknown variable
3 - stalling speed. The only thing all models agree on is a sharp decrease in forward speed nearing the coast, indeed a virtual stall. And we all know that once a system stalls, a tremendous amount of uncertainty is introduced.
I suppose the most likely outcome this week is a big rainmaker, with perhaps some minor development to TD. But i like the uncertainty factor this week - sorta old school.
