ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[hd44]

Broad still as expected... but i think there are probably west on the southern portion of the axis.

[hd44]

This is producing winds to 35 mph... 5 mph short of ts if this pass is right.

[Sciencerocks]

You would be right as this now has westerly winds on the south side. Closed!



Based on this data the LLC is centered a bit further south then I thought.

[northjaxpro]

The upper level low south of the Louisiana coast basically has been stationary for the past 12-24 hours now. This in itself is very intriguing. This feature was supposed to have started to fill in and get lifted out to have the upper ridge direct the developing cyclone off the NW coast of the Yucatan Peninsula toward the northwest.

So far, the ULL is hanging tough and I do not see it pulling away at this juncture. I would not be shocked at all if models started shifting eastward. I think everyone along the Gulf Coast from NE MX to Mississippi needs to be paying serious attention with this situation the rest of this week!

[drezee]

Not to be critical of NHC, but you have a clear closed low with a buoy west of it at 1009 mb. Rapidly deepening in a place that make no sense for it to rapidly deepen unless you have a system rapidly deepening. The buoy is in clean air hundreds of miles from the center...
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055

Please upgrade...this is a potentially deadly situation...

[drezee]

Not to be critical of NHC, but you have a clear closed low with a buoy west of it at 1009 mb. Rapidly deepening in a place that make no sense for it to rapidly deepen unless you have a system rapidly deepening. The buoy is in clean air hundreds of miles from the center...
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055

Please upgrade...this is a potentially deadly situation...

There will be TS winds on oil rigs in less than 40 hours per the forecast...

[GCANE]

Good pressure drop at BoC Buoy

[GCANE]

Convection starting to wrap.
New cell just north of CoC - close in.
If one fires on the west side in the drier slot, it'll be plugs out.

[ronjon]

The upper level low south of the Louisiana coast basically has been stationary for the past 12-24 hours now. This in itself is very intriguing. This feature was supposed to have started to fill in and get lifted out to have the upper ridge direct the developing cyclone off the NW coast of the Yucatan Peninsula toward the northwest.

So far, the ULL is hanging tough and I do not see it pulling away at this juncture. I would not be shocked at all if models started shifting eastward. I think everyone along the Gulf Coast from NE MX to Mississippi needs to be paying serious attention with this situation the rest of this week!

The NAM and JMA show this solution which aren't the best models for tropical cyclones. I think there's a decent chance high pressure builds in and the storm stays just offshore of Tx and landfalls further east in La. The real disturbing trend is the increase now forecast in intensity.

[stormreader]

The upper level low south of the Louisiana coast basically has been stationary for the past 12-24 hours now. This in itself is very intriguing. This feature was supposed to have started to fill in and get lifted out to have the upper ridge direct the developing cyclone off the NW coast of the Yucatan Peninsula toward the northwest.

So far, the ULL is hanging tough and I do not see it pulling away at this juncture. I would not be shocked at all if models started shifting eastward. I think everyone along the Gulf Coast from NE MX to Mississippi needs to be paying serious attention with this situation the rest of this week!

The NAM and JMA show this solution which aren't the best models for tropical cyclones. I think there's a decent chance high pressure builds in and the storm stays just offshore of Tx and landfalls further east in La. The real disturbing trend is the increase now forecast in intensity.

Really think that it stays offshore of TX. Still thinking Tex-La border, that's been my gut, but I think your point about somewhat further east is becoming more likely.

[stormreader]

Okay, I'm still not sure that maybe the storm is organizing a little north of the official plots given to us. You guys have checked out the ASCAT passes and interpreted them. Do they verify the official placement of the "center". Looking at simple visible, I am seeing some flow which looks like counterclockwise around the south end of a growing circulation (further north then the X on the chart). Could be wrong. Let me know.

[Bizzles]

Still no 6AM TWO...think NHC is working on something...

[hd44]

Okay, I'm still not sure that maybe the storm is organizing a little north of the official plots given to us. You guys have checked out the ASCAT passes and interpreted them. Do they verify the official placement of the "center". Looking at simple visible, I am seeing some flow which looks like counterclockwise around the south end of a growing circulation (further north then the X on the chart). Could be wrong. Let me know.

Haven't gone to sleep today have been monitoring this system. I think it is still very elongated and the center is well south of the storms. Could still be a td with west winds and sufficient winds at 35 mph.

[hd44]

Still no 6AM TWO...think NHC is working on something...

Two comes out at 8am, in 1.5 hours we will have an update !

[SuperMarioBros99thx]

It seems that Harvey is fighting to absorb the ULL to the west of it.
(Update: Looked at the water vapor loop and it seems it doesn't)

[Bizzles]

Still no 6AM TWO...think NHC is working on something...

Two comes out at 8am, in 1.5 hours we will have an update !

Whoops! been a late night!

[Nimbus]

The small vort that formed off the coast looks like it actually moved south about 30 miles overnight.
Pressure readings at buoy 42055 have been plummeting which might mean a center relocation is occurring to that area. Winds at the buoy are NNE at 19.4 kts so the center is still currently SSE of that area. In any event it appears Harvey pretty much stalled just off the coast at least temporarily which would mean a change in model timing.

If there is a ridge building l;ate in the forecast this could mean a track swing right in the model runs today.

[drezee]

The small vort that formed off the coast looks like it actually moved south about 30 miles overnight.
Pressure readings at buoy 42055 have been plummeting which might mean a center relocation is occurring to that area. Winds at the buoy are NNE at 19.4 kts so the center is still currently SSE of that area. In any event it appears Harvey pretty much stalled just off the coast at least temporarily which would mean a change in model timing.

If there is a ridge building l;ate in the forecast this could mean a track swing right in the model runs today.

Doesn't have to mean the center moved...could mean it is deepening the pressure field quicker

[stormreader]

The small vort that formed off the coast looks like it actually moved south about 30 miles overnight.
Pressure readings at buoy 42055 have been plummeting which might mean a center relocation is occurring to that area. Winds at the buoy are NNE at 19.4 kts so the center is still currently SSE of that area. In any event it appears Harvey pretty much stalled just off the coast at least temporarily which would mean a change in model timing.

If there is a ridge building l;ate in the forecast this could mean a track swing right in the model runs today.

Forward speed very important. Totally agree. Made the point yesterday that a slower approach to the coast would almost assuredly mean the storm would not get as far west as models showed. Agree, it looks as though it has moved very little in the last 12 hours or so. I think things are coming together for that track further east than mainline models have showed. Euro now very close to keeping storm off coast of Tx. Slow moving off the Yucatan, earlier effect of the ridging pushing back in from the west, would sure make one think that models would tend to keep this off the central TX coast. Still think that Tex-La border is best best. Slow mover might make one consider a tad further east. But too early for that just yet.

[GCANE]

Overnight convection appears to have been organized as an MCS.
WV Imagery suggests a MCV has been created resulting in a closed off Mid-Level Vort.
CoC of the Mid-level Vort appears NE of the LLC.