Steve wrote:Exciting and dangerous days ahead for many of you along the TX and SW LA coasts. Chiming in from the pro-side, Joe B focused much of his morning video on Harvey (though he drew a parallel with a setup in mid-September 1967 with Beulah and the D storm off the Outer Banks).
He said they'd be releasing their track later today on social media that they released to clients early this morning. He says possibly a couple of feet of rain along the TX Coast and then Cat 1 or 2 on a run to the middle TX Coast and then a crawl northward where it's still maybe just in SW LA on Tuesday. They're calling for a multi-billion dollar storm. That would be pretty impressive for most Cat 1's (or even 2's). I don't have any real disagreement with what he says, but I don't really have an idea on damage estimates because Harvey can ultimately be anything from a tropical storm to a Cat 3. It's not the model thread, but the 06GFS has the center later on crossing over me and Lake Pontchartrain. Some of the pumps here are fixed, but many are out because you can't just go to the store to buy the parts. I'm not personally worried about the usual hurricane supplies here. I'm more concerned with street/car flooding. So I'll probably hit the grocery tomorrow or Friday evening and just get some generic stuff in case we need it and then continue to monitor. If a hurricane threat (vs. remnant storm threat) is apparent at any point for SELA, I'll adjust accordingly.
But y'all down from Brownsville to on up the TX Coast ought to have everything you need. The rush will just get worse and worse and worse. Don't sleep on provisions and supplies early.
I stocked up yesterday morning, we may end up having the most rain close to here. I think the damage estimate is based solely on flooding potential at this point. If this drops a lot of rain on Houston it wouldn't be hard to get to multi-billion figures. Let's hope that doesn't happen.
