ATL: HARVEY - Models

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Alyono
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2261 Postby Alyono » Wed Aug 23, 2017 10:43 pm

wobbles into Kennedy County
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2262 Postby Rgv20 » Wed Aug 23, 2017 10:43 pm

:eek: GFS down to 957mb! Looks like landfall in Kennedy County, good news is that there is nothing but cows out there.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2263 Postby jasons2k » Wed Aug 23, 2017 10:43 pm

Another Bret...
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2264 Postby caneman » Wed Aug 23, 2017 10:45 pm

Rgv20 wrote::eek: GFS down to 957mb! Looks like landfall in Kennedy County, good news is that there is nothing but cows out there.


Unless you're a cow ;)
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2265 Postby Rgv20 » Wed Aug 23, 2017 10:45 pm

jasons wrote:Another Bret...


If it becomes a major hurricane no better place than for a landfall than Kennedy County, only Ranch land out there. Well Corpus would have to suffer a bit
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2266 Postby NDG » Wed Aug 23, 2017 10:47 pm

Through Saturday morning, 0z GFS is almost identical to the 12z Euro track.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2267 Postby Rgv20 » Wed Aug 23, 2017 10:50 pm

NDG wrote:Through Saturday morning, 0z GFS is almost identical to the 12z Euro track.


Perhaps finally a consensus of the first landfall, now if only the 0zUKMET agrees with the GFS and 12zECMWF their I would be a bit more confident.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2268 Postby Ntxw » Wed Aug 23, 2017 10:50 pm

Rgv20 wrote:
jasons wrote:Another Bret...


If it becomes a major hurricane no better place than for a landfall than Kennedy County, only Ranch land out there. Well Corpus would have to suffer a bit


Population of Kenedy County is 416 (as of census but wobbles back and fort slightly since). But as NDG listed above, pretty close to the Euro
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2269 Postby SunnyThoughts » Wed Aug 23, 2017 10:52 pm

Amazing how strong this could become in such a short time, considering how he looks now. Man this part of the basin is a powder keg.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2270 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Aug 23, 2017 10:53 pm

Rgv20 wrote::eek: GFS down to 957mb! Looks like landfall in Kennedy County, good news is that there is nothing but cows out there.


Anything farther north and we have Celia 2.0...(I do believe Celia will be reanalyzed as a Cat 4)
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2271 Postby wicked_wx_watcher » Wed Aug 23, 2017 10:54 pm

Just getting on site. Appears big changes in models with more westerly tracks. Is it becoming the consensus that extreme SETX and LA are out of danger of a recurve from the storm?
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2272 Postby NDG » Wed Aug 23, 2017 10:55 pm

Rgv20 wrote:
NDG wrote:Through Saturday morning, 0z GFS is almost identical to the 12z Euro track.


Perhaps finally a consensus of the first landfall, now if only the 0zUKMET agrees with the GFS and 12zECMWF their I would be a bit more confident.


After that 60-72 hr forecast is when the GFS and Euro start pulling apart from their consensus.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2273 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Wed Aug 23, 2017 10:58 pm

Um, GFS not as far inland this run. It might get into the GOM quick like the ECMWF showed? :eek:
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2274 Postby BobHarlem » Wed Aug 23, 2017 11:00 pm

tarheelprogrammer wrote:Um, GFS not as far inland this run. It might get into the GOM quick like the ECMWF showed? :eek:


It's not as far west as the 18z, and it really stalls out south of San Antonio, starts moving back east on Monday morning.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2275 Postby Ptarmigan » Wed Aug 23, 2017 11:00 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
Rgv20 wrote::eek: GFS down to 957mb! Looks like landfall in Kennedy County, good news is that there is nothing but cows out there.


Anything farther north and we have Celia 2.0...(I do believe Celia will be reanalyzed as a Cat 4)


Celia was a small, but intense hurricane.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2276 Postby Wx_Warrior » Wed Aug 23, 2017 11:00 pm

gfs 102h

Image
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2277 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Wed Aug 23, 2017 11:01 pm

BobHarlem wrote:
tarheelprogrammer wrote:Um, GFS not as far inland this run. It might get into the GOM quick like the ECMWF showed? :eek:


It's not as far west as the 18z, and it really stalls out south of San Antonio, starts moving back east on Monday morning.


If this system slows down anymore it might not make landfall in LA, or it may trek further up the coast.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2278 Postby USTropics » Wed Aug 23, 2017 11:02 pm

12z ECMWF allowed Harvey to get a bit more inland Texas before an eventual cyclonic loop brought it back over the GOM. 00z GFS is showing the same cyclonic loop, and is more north of the 18z run, but is not as far north as the 12z ECMWF.
Last edited by USTropics on Wed Aug 23, 2017 11:02 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2279 Postby PTrackerLA » Wed Aug 23, 2017 11:02 pm

Becoming eerily similar to 12z Euro at 114hrs
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2280 Postby NDG » Wed Aug 23, 2017 11:02 pm

Little by little the GFS is moving it back to the GOM, but not as fast as the 12z Euro.
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