ATL: HARVEY - Models
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- Rgv20
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models
Rgv20 wrote::eek: GFS down to 957mb! Looks like landfall in Kennedy County, good news is that there is nothing but cows out there.
Unless you're a cow

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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models
jasons wrote:Another Bret...
If it becomes a major hurricane no better place than for a landfall than Kennedy County, only Ranch land out there. Well Corpus would have to suffer a bit
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models
Through Saturday morning, 0z GFS is almost identical to the 12z Euro track.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models
NDG wrote:Through Saturday morning, 0z GFS is almost identical to the 12z Euro track.
Perhaps finally a consensus of the first landfall, now if only the 0zUKMET agrees with the GFS and 12zECMWF their I would be a bit more confident.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models
Rgv20 wrote:jasons wrote:Another Bret...
If it becomes a major hurricane no better place than for a landfall than Kennedy County, only Ranch land out there. Well Corpus would have to suffer a bit
Population of Kenedy County is 416 (as of census but wobbles back and fort slightly since). But as NDG listed above, pretty close to the Euro
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models
Amazing how strong this could become in such a short time, considering how he looks now. Man this part of the basin is a powder keg.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models
Rgv20 wrote::eek: GFS down to 957mb! Looks like landfall in Kennedy County, good news is that there is nothing but cows out there.
Anything farther north and we have Celia 2.0...(I do believe Celia will be reanalyzed as a Cat 4)
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models
Just getting on site. Appears big changes in models with more westerly tracks. Is it becoming the consensus that extreme SETX and LA are out of danger of a recurve from the storm?
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models
Rgv20 wrote:NDG wrote:Through Saturday morning, 0z GFS is almost identical to the 12z Euro track.
Perhaps finally a consensus of the first landfall, now if only the 0zUKMET agrees with the GFS and 12zECMWF their I would be a bit more confident.
After that 60-72 hr forecast is when the GFS and Euro start pulling apart from their consensus.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models
Um, GFS not as far inland this run. It might get into the GOM quick like the ECMWF showed? 

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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models
tarheelprogrammer wrote:Um, GFS not as far inland this run. It might get into the GOM quick like the ECMWF showed?
It's not as far west as the 18z, and it really stalls out south of San Antonio, starts moving back east on Monday morning.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models
CrazyC83 wrote:Rgv20 wrote::eek: GFS down to 957mb! Looks like landfall in Kennedy County, good news is that there is nothing but cows out there.
Anything farther north and we have Celia 2.0...(I do believe Celia will be reanalyzed as a Cat 4)
Celia was a small, but intense hurricane.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models
BobHarlem wrote:tarheelprogrammer wrote:Um, GFS not as far inland this run. It might get into the GOM quick like the ECMWF showed?
It's not as far west as the 18z, and it really stalls out south of San Antonio, starts moving back east on Monday morning.
If this system slows down anymore it might not make landfall in LA, or it may trek further up the coast.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models
12z ECMWF allowed Harvey to get a bit more inland Texas before an eventual cyclonic loop brought it back over the GOM. 00z GFS is showing the same cyclonic loop, and is more north of the 18z run, but is not as far north as the 12z ECMWF.
Last edited by USTropics on Wed Aug 23, 2017 11:02 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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- PTrackerLA
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models
Little by little the GFS is moving it back to the GOM, but not as fast as the 12z Euro.
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