ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion
Should be in that eddy soon..might be in it now. Nitris oxide!!
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion
Blinhart wrote:These are the flight levels of the 2 planes in there right now:
Air Force plane at 700mb level. (around 10,000 feet most of the time)
NOAA plane at 750mb level. (around 8,000 feet most of the time)
So instead if you're flying lower, the winds are supposed to come in stronger?
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion
Looks like maybe an erc is going on right now, could have a larger eye by morning
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion
Kingarabian wrote:BYG Jacob wrote:[img]picture[img]
There's no way that's still above 970
That's what we're all thinking.
If I had to make an educated guess, I'd go with mid to low 960s
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion
Hurricaneman wrote:Looks like maybe an erc is going on right now, could have a larger eye by morning
Nothing in VDMs to suggest that... Unless something is found on this latest pass in which case it would be in the very early stages.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 25 AUG 2017 Time : 031500 UTC
Lat : 25:15:56 N Lon : 94:40:22 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.7 / 971.7mb/ 82.2kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.7 4.7 4.1
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 25 AUG 2017 Time : 031500 UTC
Lat : 25:15:56 N Lon : 94:40:22 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.7 / 971.7mb/ 82.2kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.7 4.7 4.1
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion
Got to be sub 970 now..has to be..
Um maybe I am blind from looking at the eclipse but this does not look like 4.7 raw T
Um maybe I am blind from looking at the eclipse but this does not look like 4.7 raw T
Last edited by ROCK on Thu Aug 24, 2017 11:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion
Man....
Every new frame on IR is more and more impressive.
Every new frame on IR is more and more impressive.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion
meriland29 wrote:Been a few hours since I checked in. Looks like he is still a cat 1? Is he weakening atm or something? What is the update?
No, quite the contrary. I just analyzed a couple different satellite presentations and am of the belief that Harvey might well be about to undertake another significant drop in pressure. I do see what appears to be a light southerly component of shear but then again, Harvey does seem to be continuing a NNW motion at this time and that would also negate any short term minimal impact that some minimal southerly shear might impact. I sincerely believe that between now and noon tomm. , there will probably be an average of a 2mb per hour pressure drop. Echoing what another poster mentioned recently, a (hopeful) silver lining might be that as Harvey really slows down on approach to landfall, that hopefully its vertical structure might be interrupted just enough... along with eventual possible impact of up-welling, so that if all are lucky we might just see a deadly Cat 3 or 4 hurricane hopefully weaken to a Cat. 1 or 2 at landfall instead. Thats simply conjecture though and this is all seemingly changing by the hour.
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Andy D
(For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.)
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion
Also another thing people aren't talking about is the build up of the seas if this does stall right at the coastline before deciding to move out. You are talking about a lot of roads and land will be washed away from the repeated beating of the waves. If anyone has driven on some of the roads in between Port Arthur and Cameron in Louisiana knows that the road is right there on the GoM with just sand between the road and the water. This highway has been replaced I don't know how many times and looks like this will be happening again.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion
ROCK wrote:Got to be sub 970 now..has to be..
Just a matter of how far below.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion
BRweather wrote:Man....
Every new frame on IR is more and more impressive.
Yup. he's turning into a monster.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion
95 mph is reasonable. going with 100 mph is possible too. but by the time recon is done given the trend. no need for a special advisory as the winds will continue to increase..
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion
BYG Jacob wrote:
There's no way that's still above 970
That shot is what most here dont want to see a pineye.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion
I think the biggest issue is that the low level and mid level circs are a little more tiltled.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion
Alyono wrote:yeah, this is intensifying now
Yeah he has hit the eddy that broke off the LC..it's making the run to major
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion
BRweather wrote:Man....
Every new frame on IR is more and more impressive.
Red on the IR surrounding the eye, pin hole eye and what this tells me that this may become a major within the next 12 hours.
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