ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

EWRC going on? That means the expansion of the wind field after it's done...basically he is juicing now..awesome

You picked the track from the getgo well done. Nobody i think wants to see this any stronger
than it now.

[Kingarabian]

Open to the SE? Yeah there's something interfering with the system...

[BYG Jacob]

Looking at satellite, is it me or did Harvey get a big burst of convection on the west side?

[MaineWeatherNut]

those are not concentric eyewalls.. depending and the flight path.. they flew through two curved bands.. lol

Latest Airforce Recon VDM:

L. OPEN SE
M. CO10-20

Edit: Actually that's the latest NOAA VDM

if a ERC has started this early something forced it. the dynamics for a ERC dont occur until a mature pressure gradient exists. I highly doubt that is what is happening. likely just a misinterpretation.

Latest VDM now has it back up to 20nm and closed again.

L. CLOSED
M. C20

[smithtim]

Where did it confirm an EWRC

It confirmed Concentric Eyewalls of 10nm and 20nm.

those are not concentric eyewalls.. depending and the flight path.. they flew through two curved bands.. concentric would be in all quads.

Yeah, im not seeing it & textbook definition is EWRC is for cat 3+

But this storm very easily could be cat 3 soon and have to remember as much data as recon gets us those are just snapshots in time... could already dropped more pressure??

[Alyono]

EWRC going on? That means the expansion of the wind field after it's done...basically he is juicing now..awesome

this isn't exactly the type of EWRC that will cause weakening. Outer one is too close

[BRweather]

NW eyewall surface 88 knots

[smithtim]

It confirmed Concentric Eyewalls of 10nm and 20nm.

those are not concentric eyewalls.. depending and the flight path.. they flew through two curved bands.. concentric would be in all quads.

Yeah, im not seeing it & textbook definition is EWRC is for cat 3+

But this storm very easily could be cat 3 soon and have to remember as much data as recon gets us those are just snapshots in time... could already dropped more pressure??

BTW can anyone share links to any local radars thay are available yet to get good look at?

Thanks

[Aric Dunn]

If it’s truly developing a second eyewall then that will expand the size and wind field of the system. Will have to wait and see if that continues, it’s unusual to see an EWRC in a cat 1 or 2 storm.

Maybe an indication that it is strengthening very rapidly.

no, the opposite of that. an ERC occurs (just to be brief) after the outside pressure becomes to great for the inner core to maintain ( among many other dynamics). you get outward pressure waves that eventually focus the convergence at a distance proportional to the incoming "convergence" ..

[South Texas Storms]

Looking at the latest radar and satellite loop, this storm really needs to start gaining some latitude if it's going to make landfall north of Corpus.

[BYG Jacob]

Harvey beginning to open up on the Ne side?

[BRweather]

Looking at the latest radar and satellite loop, this storm really needs to start gaining some latitude if it's going to make landfall north of Corpus.

I believe most of the models actually insist the more northerly component tomorrow evening on its approach to landfall. I think track is going according to plan as of now. GFS really pushed it north last run before landfall.

[Blinhart]

Harvey beginning to open up on the Ne side?

um no, just consolidation of the storms.

[Steve]

Um Where the H is Steve?
Talk me off he ledge bro!!

Needing to go to sleep and lying in bed waiting for the Euro. I'm pretty lost on what happens. Divergence after 3 days is crazy so far. If the EC sticks with its ideas i would probably go with that or something close for the next week. I don't trust any of the models after 4 days this year, and I haven't been sold on what I think happens after the first hit on Texas. There is some indication in model depictions that this isn't going to be super big though it could get 15-20mb deeper. There will be a prolonged rain event, but maybe/hopefully it stays more localized to the center?

[Bonesinis]

On the west side of Corpus trying to decide to leave or stay. No flood threat where I am at but that wind is pretty high.

[txwatcher91]

So looking at radar, I think I see what the hurricane hunters were referring to with th concentric eyewall ob. Radar has been showing a “dry spot” on the southern side of the eye which looked like a second eyewall due to banding. Now the SW portion of the inner “eye” is opening up on the SW corner and it appears the eye is consolidating at a larger size now.

[MaineWeatherNut]

Ok why is the NOAA Flight still reporting Concentric Eyewalls of 10 and 20 miles while the AF plane is reporting a close 20 mile wide eye? Just doing different things at different levels?

[Sciencerocks]

Humm sad is this the crew of members who are wanting to see destruction and likely fatalities.

Well, we're here to watch such storms and we don't control what they do. We're amazed by them and realize what harm they can cause on other people.

It is part of begin interested and the nature of the beast.

[BRweather]

Um Where the H is Steve?
Talk me off he ledge bro!!

Needing to go to sleep and lying in bed waiting for the Euro. I'm pretty lost on what happens. Divergence after 3 days is crazy so far. If the EC sticks with its ideas i would probably go with that or something close for the next week. I don't trust any of the models after 4 days this year, and I haven't been sold on what I think happens after the first hit on Texas. There is some indication in model depictions that this isn't going to be super big though it could get 15-20mb deeper. There will be a prolonged rain event, but maybe/hopefully it stays more localized to the center?

Speaking of this, GFS ensembles finished it looks like just about all of them go back into the Gulf now.

[chaser1]

Pin the Pressure on the Donkey time lol, anyone's guess on lowest (GOM) pressure that Harvey achieves? I"m going to guess 937mb, but filling a bit prior to landfall.

I'm wondering why you think pressure will come up some prior to landfall. I saw what you wrote earlier about upwelling. But, from what I have heard about this particular area the warm water extends deeper then usual and upwelling in this area just feeds more warm water.

The Gulf tends to have dry air right up at the coast that usually causes most landfalling cyclones to drop a slight amount in intensity prior to landfall (most prominent example being Katrina), also just simple interaction with landmasses can cause cyclones to have a disruption in intensification or cause a drop in strength.

Although from what I've seen conditions look fair for Harvey.

True enough. Keep in mind that while the Gulf of Mex. is deep, you've got approx. 2-3 degrees of quickly rising continental shelf as one approaches the coastline. Granted, I'd guess these shelf waters are initially a tad warmer yet by virtue of the ease to warm a shallow pool even quicker. That same logic applies to mixing as well however. Of course the other variables that are hard to pin down include ERC's but i'd say the biggest factor lies with proximity to landfall and as already described, an infusion of stable air with a very slow approach. Now, take Hurricane Andrew or Charlie which charged the coastline... here a deepening phase might (did) easily continue right up to landfall. That can happen as well with slow moving hurricanes but here one has to consider other factors that might potentially aid or disrupt a hurricane's core.