ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

This is chaser Josh Morgerman, I say Never underestimate mother nature.

@iCyclone
Can't believe I was joking about #HARVEY's funeral a week ago. This one came back and bit me in the ass big time. Holy crap.

[xironman]

You guys may remember me from last years chasing of Hurricane Matthew from Cape Canaveral to Jacksonville on the A1A.

Had 120mph winds on my nose for hours.

Heading tonight to where Harvey's eye will pass between Victoria and Corpus.

Have done this many many times.

I'll give live reports to Storm2k again.

Good luck Dawg, remember parking garages are you friends.

[AdamFirst]

You guys may remember me from last years chasing of Hurricane Matthew from Cape Canaveral to Jacksonville on the A1A.

Had 120mph winds on my nose for hours.

Heading tonight to where Harvey's eye will pass between Victoria and Corpus.

Have done this many many times.

I'll give live reports to Storm2k again.

Best of luck, RD. Stay safe

[GCANE]

HRRR is showing a quick turn to the north about 3 hrs before landfall.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/hrrr/

SREF shows the turn a little bit earlier.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/index.php

[FLpanhandle91]

Beginnings of the larger eye officially clearing out on latest GOES-16?

[Ken711]

What are the models saying on the intensity at landfall? Are they in consensus on intensity?

[mcheer23]

FWIW ...HMON brings this to 150 mph

[Blinhart]

There is no good news with Harvey, I still think he will reach Cat 4 status prior to landfall as the winds are still trying to catch up.

This will very likely be one of the biggest if not the biggest natural disaster in US history.

Please stop with this kind of hyperbole.

We know it will be bad, but it doesn't do any good to speculate about damage right now except in the sense of trying to warn people to be safe and not venture out into this storm.

This was not a hyperbole, just stating what most of us are thinking. This is a very dangerous, serious, catastrophic event that we are witnessing.

[GCANE]

The feed from the EPAC over Mexico has really picked up.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Saved little loop:

From: https://realearth.ssec.wisc.edu/

[CryHavoc]

The Saffir-Simpson Scale is certainly a good indicator of strength, but it has pronounced limits. A massive category 1 or 2 hurricane might have storm surge that exceeds what is expected of its rating, this was especially noticeable with Ike when it was approaching Texas and Sandy when it began its extra-tropical transition. Likewise, a tropical storm can cause more flooding and damage than a hurricane under certain circumstances, like Allison and Erika...this is not taken into consideration in the Saffir-Simpson Scale. This discrepancy between the SSHS and real world realities is one of the reasons as to why we have seen the NHC gradually add new warning packages and impact models over the past few years.

When it comes to Harvey, from a weather enthusiast perspective, it might be exciting for it to become a Category 3 but at the end of the day the main impact of heavy flooding rain is still going to be a massive problem irregardless of rating. I hope that residents are paying attention to their local emergency management officials, because from what the experts are saying, this is likely going to be a record breaking rain event.

I feel like both of our wind scales (enhanced Fujita in tornadoes) are really older modes of evaluating intensity. Given how far our models and instrument packages have come since they were both devised, I think they'll probably be redesigned at some point in the future. We can somewhat reliably measure g2g winds in tornadoes yet still insist on using damage as a metric for intensity.

[lando]

Hrrr was horrible with Matthew, I don't trust it and just disregard it

[Jevo]

Super HD Visible... He's beautiful in a frightening way

https://weather.us/satellite/951-w-261- ... .html#play

[GCANE]

I am going to give it a couple more hours to know for sure, but the turn to the north may have already started.

[Hurricane Andrew]

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... o1-09-96-1

Harvey looks very good right now...once that eye closes off, I believe we will see significant strengthening. I am calling for a 130mph CAT 3 at landfall, early Saturday morning, but I believe that a little bit stronger a storm is not out of the question. This thing is just about done with the EWRC.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[AdamFirst]

A question for the pro Mets:

Could the shelf off the coast of Texas limit development since there's shallow water and less energy to tap into?

I see a lot of posts saying it could bomb before landfall, but I recall storms like Rita and Ike not intensifying significantly before landfall.

[lando]

closest buoy; 42020 reporting waves of 27-34 feet

[CryHavoc]

This is chaser Josh Morgerman, I say Never underestimate mother nature.

@iCyclone
Can't believe I was joking about #HARVEY's funeral a week ago. This one came back and bit me in the ass big time. Holy crap.

I know Josh semi-personally, and he loves his Texas hurricanes. I know he's sad about all the damage but he's been through Haiyan at peak intensity, I'm sure he'll find a way to ride this one out as well.

[Blinhart]

Is it starting to upwell cooler water?

no cooler water to upwell

[Callista]

Any chance it weakens to Cat 1 before it makes landfall? I'm not sure whether there's anything around that area to really slow it down, though; what do the ocean temperatures look like?