ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3601 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 25, 2017 11:14 am

This is chaser Josh Morgerman, I say Never underestimate mother nature.

@iCyclone
Can't believe I was joking about #HARVEY's funeral a week ago. This one came back and bit me in the ass big time. Holy crap.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3602 Postby xironman » Fri Aug 25, 2017 11:15 am

Rail Dawg wrote:You guys may remember me from last years chasing of Hurricane Matthew from Cape Canaveral to Jacksonville on the A1A.

Had 120mph winds on my nose for hours.

Heading tonight to where Harvey's eye will pass between Victoria and Corpus.

Have done this many many times.

I'll give live reports to Storm2k again.


Good luck Dawg, remember parking garages are you friends.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3603 Postby AdamFirst » Fri Aug 25, 2017 11:16 am

Rail Dawg wrote:You guys may remember me from last years chasing of Hurricane Matthew from Cape Canaveral to Jacksonville on the A1A.

Had 120mph winds on my nose for hours.

Heading tonight to where Harvey's eye will pass between Victoria and Corpus.

Have done this many many times.

I'll give live reports to Storm2k again.


Best of luck, RD. Stay safe
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3604 Postby GCANE » Fri Aug 25, 2017 11:17 am

HRRR is showing a quick turn to the north about 3 hrs before landfall.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/hrrr/

SREF shows the turn a little bit earlier.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/index.php
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3605 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Fri Aug 25, 2017 11:19 am

Beginnings of the larger eye officially clearing out on latest GOES-16?
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3606 Postby Ken711 » Fri Aug 25, 2017 11:19 am

What are the models saying on the intensity at landfall? Are they in consensus on intensity?
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3607 Postby mcheer23 » Fri Aug 25, 2017 11:23 am

FWIW ...HMON brings this to 150 mph
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3608 Postby Blinhart » Fri Aug 25, 2017 11:24 am

CryHavoc wrote:
hurricaneCW wrote:There is no good news with Harvey, I still think he will reach Cat 4 status prior to landfall as the winds are still trying to catch up.

This will very likely be one of the biggest if not the biggest natural disaster in US history.


Please stop with this kind of hyperbole.

We know it will be bad, but it doesn't do any good to speculate about damage right now except in the sense of trying to warn people to be safe and not venture out into this storm.


This was not a hyperbole, just stating what most of us are thinking. This is a very dangerous, serious, catastrophic event that we are witnessing.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3609 Postby GCANE » Fri Aug 25, 2017 11:26 am

The feed from the EPAC over Mexico has really picked up.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3610 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Fri Aug 25, 2017 11:28 am

Saved little loop:
Image
From: https://realearth.ssec.wisc.edu/
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3611 Postby CryHavoc » Fri Aug 25, 2017 11:28 am

MrStormX wrote:The Saffir-Simpson Scale is certainly a good indicator of strength, but it has pronounced limits. A massive category 1 or 2 hurricane might have storm surge that exceeds what is expected of its rating, this was especially noticeable with Ike when it was approaching Texas and Sandy when it began its extra-tropical transition. Likewise, a tropical storm can cause more flooding and damage than a hurricane under certain circumstances, like Allison and Erika...this is not taken into consideration in the Saffir-Simpson Scale. This discrepancy between the SSHS and real world realities is one of the reasons as to why we have seen the NHC gradually add new warning packages and impact models over the past few years.

When it comes to Harvey, from a weather enthusiast perspective, it might be exciting for it to become a Category 3 but at the end of the day the main impact of heavy flooding rain is still going to be a massive problem irregardless of rating. I hope that residents are paying attention to their local emergency management officials, because from what the experts are saying, this is likely going to be a record breaking rain event.


I feel like both of our wind scales (enhanced Fujita in tornadoes) are really older modes of evaluating intensity. Given how far our models and instrument packages have come since they were both devised, I think they'll probably be redesigned at some point in the future. We can somewhat reliably measure g2g winds in tornadoes yet still insist on using damage as a metric for intensity.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3612 Postby lando » Fri Aug 25, 2017 11:28 am

Hrrr was horrible with Matthew, I don't trust it and just disregard it
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3613 Postby Jevo » Fri Aug 25, 2017 11:29 am

Super HD Visible... He's beautiful in a frightening way

https://weather.us/satellite/951-w-261- ... .html#play
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3614 Postby GCANE » Fri Aug 25, 2017 11:29 am

I am going to give it a couple more hours to know for sure, but the turn to the north may have already started.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3615 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Fri Aug 25, 2017 11:29 am

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... o1-09-96-1

Harvey looks very good right now...once that eye closes off, I believe we will see significant strengthening. I am calling for a 130mph CAT 3 at landfall, early Saturday morning, but I believe that a little bit stronger a storm is not out of the question. This thing is just about done with the EWRC.

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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3616 Postby AdamFirst » Fri Aug 25, 2017 11:29 am

A question for the pro Mets:

Could the shelf off the coast of Texas limit development since there's shallow water and less energy to tap into?

I see a lot of posts saying it could bomb before landfall, but I recall storms like Rita and Ike not intensifying significantly before landfall.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3617 Postby lando » Fri Aug 25, 2017 11:30 am

closest buoy; 42020 reporting waves of 27-34 feet
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3618 Postby CryHavoc » Fri Aug 25, 2017 11:31 am

cycloneye wrote:This is chaser Josh Morgerman, I say Never underestimate mother nature.

@iCyclone
Can't believe I was joking about #HARVEY's funeral a week ago. This one came back and bit me in the ass big time. Holy crap.


I know Josh semi-personally, and he loves his Texas hurricanes. I know he's sad about all the damage but he's been through Haiyan at peak intensity, I'm sure he'll find a way to ride this one out as well.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3619 Postby Blinhart » Fri Aug 25, 2017 11:31 am

Soonercane wrote:Is it starting to upwell cooler water?


no cooler water to upwell
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3620 Postby Callista » Fri Aug 25, 2017 11:32 am

Any chance it weakens to Cat 1 before it makes landfall? I'm not sure whether there's anything around that area to really slow it down, though; what do the ocean temperatures look like?
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