Could Kate Become Cat #3?

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Steve H.
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Could Kate Become Cat #3?

#1 Postby Steve H. » Thu Oct 02, 2003 3:23 pm

Kate looking good on the latest visibles and heading for warmer waters. Maybe she'll get into the Majors 8-)
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cycloneye
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#2 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 02, 2003 3:27 pm

Well definitly cat 2 is a given but cat 3 hummm a close call but if she gets more ideal conditions before the shear begins to affect her in 3 days because of the trough maybe.
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#3 Postby bahamaswx » Thu Oct 02, 2003 3:28 pm

I doubt she'll make it far enough south to tap though 28C waters. A CAT3 seems unlikely.
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#4 Postby george_r_1961 » Thu Oct 02, 2003 3:59 pm

i dont think its gonna stay over warm water and avoid shear long enough to make cat 3..but you just never know
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#5 Postby JCT777 » Thu Oct 02, 2003 4:29 pm

It's gonna be close. Kate may briefly get to Cat 3 status.
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#6 Postby JetMaxx » Thu Oct 02, 2003 4:50 pm

I won't be surprised a bit if Kate makes it to major hurricane status (115-120 mph). In fact, I believe she's more in the 110 mph range now...based on the excellent satellite signature.
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#7 Postby abajan » Thu Oct 02, 2003 5:22 pm

JCT777 wrote:It's gonna be close. Kate may briefly get to Cat 3 status.


I agree. In fact I'm willing to stick my neck out and state that it will briefly make it to Cat 3.
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#8 Postby Steve Cosby » Thu Oct 02, 2003 5:46 pm

JetMaxx wrote:I won't be surprised a bit if Kate makes it to major hurricane status (115-120 mph). In fact, I believe she's more in the 110 mph range now...based on the excellent satellite signature.


Bastardi was convinced it was a Cat 3 this morning. He thinks it's the TPC making themselves look better by not upgrading.
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#9 Postby stu » Thu Oct 02, 2003 5:48 pm

35% of CAT3, however 100% chance of CAT2
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#10 Postby AussieMark » Thu Oct 02, 2003 6:22 pm

the NHC hasn't ruled out the possibility of Kate reaching Major Hurricane Status.

Extract from Kate #29 - Discussion
<B>KATE REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED...OVER WARM WATER...AND IN A LIGHT-SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THE FAVORABLE CONDITION
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR 36-48 HR. THUS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS
FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THAT TIME...AND THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
THAT IT COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS
CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT KATE SHOULD ENCOUNTER SIGNIFICANT WESTERLY
SHEAR LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...SO GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
FORECAST AFTER 48 HR.</B>
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#11 Postby Stormsfury » Thu Oct 02, 2003 7:04 pm

JetMaxx wrote:I won't be surprised a bit if Kate makes it to major hurricane status (115-120 mph). In fact, I believe she's more in the 110 mph range now...based on the excellent satellite signature.


No doubt the eye is very well defined and appears that Kate is beginning to fire up some strong convection on the southern side of the storm. Warm water isn't a problem, shear isn't a problem for 2 days. Is it going to be enough or will Kate have enough time to hit Cat 3. IMO, chances are about 40%.

SF
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