ATL: IRMA - Models

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#741 Postby SFLcane » Wed Aug 30, 2017 2:20 pm

EPS ensembles should be mucho fun...
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#742 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 30, 2017 2:20 pm

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#743 Postby meriland29 » Wed Aug 30, 2017 2:24 pm

Does anyone know the forecasted size vs how large Ike was? I remember Ike being not as strong but the sheer size was unreal..
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#744 Postby RL3AO » Wed Aug 30, 2017 2:25 pm

12z Euro run - Model runs saved in first post of the thread.

ECMWF 12Z Aug 30:
Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#745 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Aug 30, 2017 2:29 pm

12z EPS through day 4 shows members tightly clustered and more WSW in position + faster motion.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#746 Postby Thetxhurricanemaster » Wed Aug 30, 2017 2:30 pm

Kingarabian wrote:12z EPS through day 4 shows members tightly clustered and more WSW in position + faster motion.

So clustered more south ?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#747 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Aug 30, 2017 2:33 pm

Thetxhurricanemaster wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:12z EPS through day 4 shows members tightly clustered and more WSW in position + faster motion.

So clustered more south ?


Yes through day 5. Looks like they're beginning to diverge at day 6.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#748 Postby Thetxhurricanemaster » Wed Aug 30, 2017 2:35 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
Thetxhurricanemaster wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:12z EPS through day 4 shows members tightly clustered and more WSW in position + faster motion.

So clustered more south ?


Yes through day 5. Looks like they're beginning to diverge at day 6.

Do most of them have this impacting the islands
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#749 Postby KWT » Wed Aug 30, 2017 2:37 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
Thetxhurricanemaster wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:12z EPS through day 4 shows members tightly clustered and more WSW in position + faster motion.

So clustered more south ?


Yes through day 5. Looks like they're beginning to diverge at day 6.


Yeah makes sense as day 6 is the synoptic pattern does become more uncertain. I'm betting there are going to be some very interesting ensemble members in the lot tonight both for Irma and also for any gulf system that forms.

Anyway interestingly current motion of Irma is near due west (just a touch south) whilst all models lift this near 290-300 degrees tonight towards 17N by 06z, we may get an early test of whether the models have a good grip on the current set-up aloft.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#750 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Aug 30, 2017 2:39 pm

12z EPS Control is right over the islands as a major hurricane, compared to the 00z EPS which recurved the storm before hitting the islands.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#751 Postby BYG Jacob » Wed Aug 30, 2017 2:42 pm

Kingarabian wrote:12z EPS Control is right over the islands as a major hurricane, compared to the 00z EPS which recurved the storm before hitting the islands.

Not good
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#752 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Aug 30, 2017 2:46 pm

Sorry mods that I'm posting 1 liners with no images. Delete if needed.

12z EPS control enters the eastern Caribbean and has a landfall over Puerto Rico as a major hurricane on day 8. EPS mean of the 51 members is also very similar to the control. This is a significant change as the EPS had a full recurve with no land areas affected.
Last edited by Kingarabian on Wed Aug 30, 2017 2:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#753 Postby OuterBanker » Wed Aug 30, 2017 2:46 pm

RL3AO wrote:12z Euro run - Model runs saved in first post of the thread.

ECMWF 12Z Aug 30:
Image


That already destroys PR and the Bahamas, not so sure I want to see what happens after.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#754 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Aug 30, 2017 2:47 pm

EURO stalls out potential Jose down in the BOC. Also. a very strong ridge builds back in across the Atlantic right at the end of the 10 day run period. Very interesting run.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#755 Postby BYG Jacob » Wed Aug 30, 2017 2:51 pm

northjaxpro wrote:EURO stalls out potential Jose down in the BOC. Also. a very strong ridge builds back in across the Atlantic right at the end of the 10 day run period. Very interesting run.

That would drive Irma into Florida right?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#756 Postby jlauderdal » Wed Aug 30, 2017 2:58 pm

RL3AO wrote:12z Euro run - Model runs saved in first post of the thread.

ECMWF 12Z Aug 30:
Image


one could argue that is the most dangerous path a hurricane can take as it heads through the islands and then through the gap avoiding the shredder on the way to the united states
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#757 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Aug 30, 2017 3:00 pm

:uarrow: Or it is possible that Irma could stall just off the Southeast U.S. coast as well just another possibility. Still 8-10 days away. Remember, this is only one model run of the EURO.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#758 Postby RL3AO » Wed Aug 30, 2017 3:05 pm

northjaxpro wrote:Remember, this is only one model run of the EURO.


Well...it's actually five runs of the Euro now.

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#759 Postby jlauderdal » Wed Aug 30, 2017 3:06 pm

RL3AO wrote:Image
excellent diagram..after that hurdle the only things that will save the united states is the east coast trough/hispanola and cuba...euro and gfs seeing things differently so we are back to the battleground with those two..classic intense CV system with a real shot to come across, this doesn't happen very often fortunately and might not this time..meanwhile we have a thousands of refugees in Texas, if anyone ever doubted the power of inland flooding just take a look at houston, nearly impossible to prepare for flooding
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#760 Postby gatorcane » Wed Aug 30, 2017 3:07 pm

:eek:

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