ATL: IRMA - Models

[SFLcane]

EPS ensembles should be mucho fun...

[cycloneye]

[meriland29]

Does anyone know the forecasted size vs how large Ike was? I remember Ike being not as strong but the sheer size was unreal..

[RL3AO]

12z Euro run - Model runs saved in first post of the thread.

ECMWF 12Z Aug 30:

[Kingarabian]

12z EPS through day 4 shows members tightly clustered and more WSW in position + faster motion.

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

12z EPS through day 4 shows members tightly clustered and more WSW in position + faster motion.

So clustered more south ?

[Kingarabian]

12z EPS through day 4 shows members tightly clustered and more WSW in position + faster motion.

So clustered more south ?

Yes through day 5. Looks like they're beginning to diverge at day 6.

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

12z EPS through day 4 shows members tightly clustered and more WSW in position + faster motion.

So clustered more south ?

Yes through day 5. Looks like they're beginning to diverge at day 6.

Do most of them have this impacting the islands

[KWT]

12z EPS through day 4 shows members tightly clustered and more WSW in position + faster motion.

So clustered more south ?

Yes through day 5. Looks like they're beginning to diverge at day 6.

Yeah makes sense as day 6 is the synoptic pattern does become more uncertain. I'm betting there are going to be some very interesting ensemble members in the lot tonight both for Irma and also for any gulf system that forms.

Anyway interestingly current motion of Irma is near due west (just a touch south) whilst all models lift this near 290-300 degrees tonight towards 17N by 06z, we may get an early test of whether the models have a good grip on the current set-up aloft.

[Kingarabian]

12z EPS Control is right over the islands as a major hurricane, compared to the 00z EPS which recurved the storm before hitting the islands.

[BYG Jacob]

12z EPS Control is right over the islands as a major hurricane, compared to the 00z EPS which recurved the storm before hitting the islands.

Not good

[Kingarabian]

Sorry mods that I'm posting 1 liners with no images. Delete if needed.

12z EPS control enters the eastern Caribbean and has a landfall over Puerto Rico as a major hurricane on day 8. EPS mean of the 51 members is also very similar to the control. This is a significant change as the EPS had a full recurve with no land areas affected.

[OuterBanker]

12z Euro run - Model runs saved in first post of the thread.

ECMWF 12Z Aug 30:

That already destroys PR and the Bahamas, not so sure I want to see what happens after.

[northjaxpro]

EURO stalls out potential Jose down in the BOC. Also. a very strong ridge builds back in across the Atlantic right at the end of the 10 day run period. Very interesting run.

[BYG Jacob]

EURO stalls out potential Jose down in the BOC. Also. a very strong ridge builds back in across the Atlantic right at the end of the 10 day run period. Very interesting run.

That would drive Irma into Florida right?

[jlauderdal]

12z Euro run - Model runs saved in first post of the thread.

ECMWF 12Z Aug 30:

one could argue that is the most dangerous path a hurricane can take as it heads through the islands and then through the gap avoiding the shredder on the way to the united states

[northjaxpro]

Or it is possible that Irma could stall just off the Southeast U.S. coast as well just another possibility. Still 8-10 days away. Remember, this is only one model run of the EURO.

[RL3AO]

Remember, this is only one model run of the EURO.

Well...it's actually five runs of the Euro now.

[jlauderdal]

excellent diagram..after that hurdle the only things that will save the united states is the east coast trough/hispanola and cuba...euro and gfs seeing things differently so we are back to the battleground with those two..classic intense CV system with a real shot to come across, this doesn't happen very often fortunately and might not this time..meanwhile we have a thousands of refugees in Texas, if anyone ever doubted the power of inland flooding just take a look at houston, nearly impossible to prepare for flooding

[gatorcane]