ATL: IRMA - Models

[weathaguyry]

Typical GFS, creates an 893mb monster cat 5 that makes it's own rules and magically goes through a ridge

[AxaltaRacing24]

I believe that this run of the GFS after hr 168 is bogus because of plowing through the ridge

I've never seen anything like it. Every signal was for a storm farther west and it ended up in the same spot while moving it WNW in 36hrs...

[meriland29]

Apparently the GFS would rather defy physics

[tarheelprogrammer]

Any METs have a clue as to why the GFS goes through the ridge in long term?

[Bocadude85]

The 0Z Canadian is a good deal west of the 12Z

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=atl&pkg=z850_vort&runtime=2017083100&fh=228&xpos=0&ypos=0

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

lucky escape on the 00z well clear of the islands.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Any METs have a clue as to why the GFS goes through the ridge in long term?

It is physically impossible lol. The GFS is making its own rules tonight

[txwatcher91]

I believe that this run of the GFS after hr 168 is bogus because of plowing through the ridge

I've never seen anything like it. Every signal was for a storm farther west and it ended up in the same spot while moving it WNW in 36hrs...

That’s why I don’t trust the GFS in this type of setup. Euro and UK do far better and match up well with current trends.

[Hurricaneman]

Any METs have a clue as to why the GFS goes through the ridge in long term?

It is physically impossible lol. The GFS is making its own rules tonight

I have a feeling the ensembles will make more sense like last run

[Sciencerocks]

Typical GFS, creates an 893mb monster cat 5 that makes it's own rules and magically goes through a ridge

That is what doesn't make sense to me.

This will most likely head westward in such a set-up until around 216 at the very least. The ecmwf likely has a better idea of the long range.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Deep into fantasy land

[Blinhart]

What is that a Cat 6? lol

The way some of these storms blow up they need to add Cat 6 at 180 MPH.

[meriland29]

uhhh.....

[AxaltaRacing24]

Umm

[meriland29]

lol Axalta, I like how me and you had the exact same reaction lol

[weathaguyry]

Landfall in Maine at 252hrs as a 954mb, whatever you want to call it, large enough to create TS winds south of Long Island

[Blinhart]

Umm

Ok a Cat 3-4 hitting Maine in 11 days, I have a feeling that is way off base and way too fast. I can see this system not even make it to the Lesser Antilles or the Bahamas in that time frame.

[PTrackerLA]

That is some rapid movement 240 - 252! Looks to almost be pulling a Maine version of Sandy.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Umm

Ok a Cat 3-4 hitting Maine in 11 days, I have a feeling that is way off base and way too fast. I can see this system not even make it to the Lesser Antilles or the Bahamas in that time frame.

I believe that scenario is a bit more accurate with the GFS's steering pattern. But with its steering it has clearly been out drinking.

[Bocadude85]

Landfall in Maine at 252hrs as a 954mb, whatever you want to call it, large enough to create TS winds south of Long Island

Well now we know that the safest place to be in 11 days is Maine. Atleast the GFS seems to have come more inline with the Euro as far as speed goes.