ATL: IRMA - Models

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meriland29
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1061 Postby meriland29 » Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:50 am

216

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1062 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:51 am

Can I say the I word now?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1063 Postby chaser1 » Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:51 am

Oh no............... Noticed on the 500 mb that the westerlies across the N. US have pulled up and instead of keeping a sharp trough into the Gulf, there is only a cut-off. This implies that high pressure ridging is likely to be bridging between the W. Atlantic and S. Plains. On this run, the Euro is even more indicative of a Florida strike and then I could even see a less poleward motion followed by potentially a more WNW shift once reaching the Gulf
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1064 Postby Bocadude85 » Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:53 am

Through 216 hours the 0z Euro is reminiscent of Hurricane David in 1979
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1065 Postby chaser1 » Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:54 am

Equally as bad, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and Cuba look to just get wrecked on this run. Drastically different from the GFS.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1066 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:55 am

AxaltaRacing24 wrote:Can I say the I word now?
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That hits every mountainous landmass possible.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1067 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:56 am

chaser1 wrote:Equally as bad, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and Cuba look to just get wrecked on this run. Drastically different from the GFS.

No doubt. This run was a bloodbath.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1068 Postby sma10 » Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:56 am

ColdMiser123 wrote:
meriland29 wrote:If that panned out, it would be shredded by those mtns


That is the only thing saving the United States this run.


This pattern would be awful for someplace in the US, obviously couldn't pinpoint exactly. But dont count on Hispaniola/Cuba - even if the Euro has this dangerous pattern correct, it defies credulity that it would hit the two islands with a direct bullseye 8/9 days out
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1069 Postby meriland29 » Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:57 am

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this looks like a GOMer
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1070 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:57 am

Gulf bound as it continues to hang over mountainous terrain (yet another cliffhanger)
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1071 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:58 am

I think it's time for Texas/LA need to close their eyes before viewing that.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1072 Postby meriland29 » Thu Aug 31, 2017 2:00 am

take into account, that is the scenario after hitting all of the mountains.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1073 Postby Bocadude85 » Thu Aug 31, 2017 2:00 am

AxaltaRacing24 wrote:Gulf bound as it continues to hang over mountainous terrain (yet another cliffhanger)
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Wow...if Irma was 150-200 miles north of the 240 hour 0z Euro position we would have a Florida landfall...that distance is well within the margin of error this far out.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1074 Postby South Texas Storms » Thu Aug 31, 2017 2:00 am

What a run from the 0z Euro. Another southwest shift.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1075 Postby meriland29 » Thu Aug 31, 2017 2:03 am

I was thinking it would either come into agreement with GFS or vise versa..guess we know now
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1076 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu Aug 31, 2017 2:05 am

Bocadude85 wrote:
AxaltaRacing24 wrote:Gulf bound as it continues to hang over mountainous terrain (yet another cliffhanger)
Image


Wow...if Irma was 150-200 miles north of the 240 hour 0z Euro position we would have a Florida landfall...that distance is well within the margin of error this far out.

That's a very dangerous margin.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1077 Postby sma10 » Thu Aug 31, 2017 2:06 am

Bocadude85 wrote:
AxaltaRacing24 wrote:Gulf bound as it continues to hang over mountainous terrain (yet another cliffhanger)
Image


Wow...if Irma was 150-200 miles north of the 240 hour 0z Euro position we would have a Florida landfall...that distance is well within the margin of error this far out.


Yes, and consider that it still shows the system at 971mb after traversing all the islands. I shudder to think what the strength would be if it was instead just a bit north or south.

My general point being ... the model is more likelier to be correct in the large scale general pattern, as opposed to the fine minutiae of the storm track in days 6-10
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1078 Postby chaser1 » Thu Aug 31, 2017 2:11 am

God help the Antilles and the North (or NW) Gulf Coast looking at this run. If this EURO run were to verify, I'll go on record here and now suggesting that THIS hurricane might ultimatly prove to be one of the single deadliest hurricanes in Atlantic history. Aside from the possibility of Cat 4 or 5 winds impacting Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic, the flooding and potential death toll from the Islands could be unimaginable. Then, to even consider that severe flooding could return to the Gulf coast where levies and dams have already been weakened and compromised, would be a potentially horrific set of circumstances. Fortunately, there's always some level of windshield wipers adjustments to model runs but this particular run might just paint a worse case track scenario.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1079 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Thu Aug 31, 2017 2:13 am

Not totally buying that EC run @ this time on just one run.


GFS may still be on too something with a weakness in the ridge with a lowering of heights weakness. Well i hoping so.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1080 Postby wxmann_91 » Thu Aug 31, 2017 2:21 am

chaser1 wrote:God help the Antilles and the North (or NW) Gulf Coast looking at this run. If this EURO run were to verify, I'll go on record here and now suggesting that THIS hurricane might ultimatly prove to be one of the single deadliest hurricanes in Atlantic history. Aside from the possibility of Cat 4 or 5 winds impacting Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic, the flooding and potential death toll from the Islands could be unimaginable. Then, to even consider that severe flooding could return to the Gulf coast where levies and dams have already been weakened and compromised, would be a potentially horrific set of circumstances. Fortunately, there's always some level of windshield wipers adjustments to model runs but this particular run might just paint a worse case track scenario.


Georges took a similar path in 1998 and was decidedly not one of the deadliest hurricanes in Atlantic history. Take a deep breath. All range of solutions still on the table.
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