ATL: IRMA - Models

[ColdMiser123]

If that panned out, it would be shredded by those mtns

That is the only thing saving the United States this run.

[meriland29]

216

[AxaltaRacing24]

Can I say the I word now?

[chaser1]

Oh no............... Noticed on the 500 mb that the westerlies across the N. US have pulled up and instead of keeping a sharp trough into the Gulf, there is only a cut-off. This implies that high pressure ridging is likely to be bridging between the W. Atlantic and S. Plains. On this run, the Euro is even more indicative of a Florida strike and then I could even see a less poleward motion followed by potentially a more WNW shift once reaching the Gulf

[Bocadude85]

Through 216 hours the 0z Euro is reminiscent of Hurricane David in 1979

[chaser1]

Equally as bad, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and Cuba look to just get wrecked on this run. Drastically different from the GFS.

[AutoPenalti]

Can I say the I word now?

That hits every mountainous landmass possible.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Equally as bad, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and Cuba look to just get wrecked on this run. Drastically different from the GFS.

No doubt. This run was a bloodbath.

[sma10]

If that panned out, it would be shredded by those mtns

That is the only thing saving the United States this run.

This pattern would be awful for someplace in the US, obviously couldn't pinpoint exactly. But dont count on Hispaniola/Cuba - even if the Euro has this dangerous pattern correct, it defies credulity that it would hit the two islands with a direct bullseye 8/9 days out

[meriland29]

this looks like a GOMer

[AxaltaRacing24]

Gulf bound as it continues to hang over mountainous terrain (yet another cliffhanger)

[AxaltaRacing24]

I think it's time for Texas/LA need to close their eyes before viewing that.

[meriland29]

take into account, that is the scenario after hitting all of the mountains.

[Bocadude85]

Gulf bound as it continues to hang over mountainous terrain (yet another cliffhanger)

Wow...if Irma was 150-200 miles north of the 240 hour 0z Euro position we would have a Florida landfall...that distance is well within the margin of error this far out.

[South Texas Storms]

What a run from the 0z Euro. Another southwest shift.

[meriland29]

I was thinking it would either come into agreement with GFS or vise versa..guess we know now

[AutoPenalti]

Gulf bound as it continues to hang over mountainous terrain (yet another cliffhanger)

Wow...if Irma was 150-200 miles north of the 240 hour 0z Euro position we would have a Florida landfall...that distance is well within the margin of error this far out.

That's a very dangerous margin.

[sma10]

Gulf bound as it continues to hang over mountainous terrain (yet another cliffhanger)

Wow...if Irma was 150-200 miles north of the 240 hour 0z Euro position we would have a Florida landfall...that distance is well within the margin of error this far out.

Yes, and consider that it still shows the system at 971mb after traversing all the islands. I shudder to think what the strength would be if it was instead just a bit north or south.

My general point being ... the model is more likelier to be correct in the large scale general pattern, as opposed to the fine minutiae of the storm track in days 6-10

[chaser1]

God help the Antilles and the North (or NW) Gulf Coast looking at this run. If this EURO run were to verify, I'll go on record here and now suggesting that THIS hurricane might ultimatly prove to be one of the single deadliest hurricanes in Atlantic history. Aside from the possibility of Cat 4 or 5 winds impacting Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic, the flooding and potential death toll from the Islands could be unimaginable. Then, to even consider that severe flooding could return to the Gulf coast where levies and dams have already been weakened and compromised, would be a potentially horrific set of circumstances. Fortunately, there's always some level of windshield wipers adjustments to model runs but this particular run might just paint a worse case track scenario.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Not totally buying that EC run @ this time on just one run.


GFS may still be on too something with a weakness in the ridge with a lowering of heights weakness. Well i hoping so.