ATL: IRMA - Models

[hohnywx]

If the 18z and 00z GFS don't cave in, I'm thinking the Euro may @ 00z.

Does everyone remember we are ~6 days away from possible land impacts? We could still have a few days of model flip-flopping to incur before we have a concrete track.

[AxaltaRacing24]

In case anybody wants to see what the long-range Euro showed for Harvey..animation below. Not bad really considering all of the other models were buried into Central America with some showing northern Mexico. Granted the Euro did back off this northern turn for a few more runs before showing it again:

Here is what the GFS had in a similar timeframe for Harvey.

This along with the possible pattern makes it extremely difficult to bet against the Euro. I know people don't want to see carnage but we very well might have another situation. It could go either way.

[sma10]

Climatology seems to be the buzz word around here, but seriously - why not just use CLIPER then? One of the reasons to track storms with computer models is because they don't always behave exactly as you think they're supposed to.

[GeneratorPower]

In a recent tweet, Met. Joe Bastardi noted he is staying with the Euro. He also said that the GFS might score a coup but he doubts it.

Can you remember the last time the GFS scored a meaningful "coup"? I didn't think so. Neither can I.

[SouthFLTropics]

It's very hard to bet against the Euro once a system is established. While the GFS did get it right with 92L concerning cyclogenesis, it's too difficult to ignore the comparison on Harvey. Unfortunately I'm going to have to go 80/20 with the Euro.

[Kingarabian]

Climatology seems to be the buzz word around here, but seriously - why not just use CLIPER then? One of the reasons to track storms with computer models is because they don't always behave exactly as you think they're supposed to.

If you can post it, that'll be great.

[Kingarabian]

In a recent tweet, Met. Joe Bastardi noted he is staying with the Euro. He also said that the GFS might score a coup but he doubts it.

Can you remember the last time the GFS scored a meaningful "coup"? I didn't think so. Neither can I.

And BTW, which coup is he referring to ... The harmless out to sea solution? The cat 5 monster into NC? Or the freight train into Nova Scotia?

Through day 10, the GFS is showing a recurve, and has been really consistent. Looking at its forecast from day 11-to-16 is useless.

[jlauderdal]

Hard to bet against the euro but I'll be floored if Irma manages to make it into the se Bahamas.

It could head south of the se bahamas

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[meriland29]

Why don't we focus on the 18z run now ...

[SouthFLTropics]

I don't want to get too far off topic here since this is the model thread, but in the end climatology means didley squat. If we're going by climatology alone then a major US city shouldn't have just received 52 inches of rain in 4 days...but it did. Just because something has never been recorded to happen, doesn't mean it won't happen. We don't know what storms formed near the Cabo Verde islands and struck the CONUS back before records were kept. For all we know it could have happened multiple times in one year.

[GeneratorPower]

It's very hard to bet against the Euro once a system is established. While the GFS did get it right with 92L concerning cyclogenesis, it's too difficult to ignore the comparison on Harvey. Unfortunately I'm going to have to go 80/20 with the Euro.

The Euro is trustworthy enough to take preliminary preparedness actions at day 10. I'm not talking about evacuating! I'm saying things like having extra fuel on hand and trimming the palm trees. Basically stage 2 of hurricane preparedness action plans. We'll get to stage 3 when the NHC forecast shows us in the cone. The Euro, like any model, is not a forecast...just a tool. But it's darn good at being in the neighborhood. And we already have a Cat 3 on our hands.

[jlauderdal]

Euro will probably cave in soon atleast that's the hope

I think hope is all you have here unfortunately...the GFS has been bouncing all over the place and has been consistently too far north.

Why buy the gfs, its been north of the track since yesterday... If it can't handle the track at 24h why believe it at 48 or 72h and beyond

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[meriland29]

[SouthFLTropics]

12 hours...further South than 12z

[WAcyclone]

ECMWF control run:



Source: weather.us

[meriland29]

There aint no point arguing which of the two are right over 10 days out...

[jlauderdal]

In a recent tweet, Met. Joe Bastardi noted he is staying with the Euro. He also said that the GFS might score a coup but he doubts it.

Can you remember the last time the GFS scored a meaningful "coup"? I didn't think so. Neither can I.

Gfs was actually better with Matthew than euro, maybe not a coup...when gfs can get the first 24h of Irma correct I will give it more weight

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[meriland29]

18

[SouthFLTropics]

ECMWF control run:



Source: weather.us

That looks practically identical to Floyd

[meriland29]

30