ATL: IRMA - Models

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AxaltaRacing24
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1541 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Thu Aug 31, 2017 4:16 pm

gatorcane wrote:
gatorcane wrote:In case anybody wants to see what the long-range Euro showed for Harvey..animation below. Not bad really considering all of the other models were buried into Central America with some showing northern Mexico. Granted the Euro did back off this northern turn for a few more runs before showing it again:

Image


Here is what the GFS had in a similar timeframe for Harvey.

Image

This along with the possible pattern makes it extremely difficult to bet against the Euro. I know people don't want to see carnage but we very well might have another situation. It could go either way.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1542 Postby sma10 » Thu Aug 31, 2017 4:16 pm

Climatology seems to be the buzz word around here, but seriously - why not just use CLIPER then? One of the reasons to track storms with computer models is because they don't always behave exactly as you think they're supposed to.
Last edited by sma10 on Thu Aug 31, 2017 4:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1543 Postby GeneratorPower » Thu Aug 31, 2017 4:16 pm

CourierPR wrote:In a recent tweet, Met. Joe Bastardi noted he is staying with the Euro. He also said that the GFS might score a coup but he doubts it.


Can you remember the last time the GFS scored a meaningful "coup"? I didn't think so. Neither can I.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1544 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 31, 2017 4:19 pm

It's very hard to bet against the Euro once a system is established. While the GFS did get it right with 92L concerning cyclogenesis, it's too difficult to ignore the comparison on Harvey. Unfortunately I'm going to have to go 80/20 with the Euro.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1545 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Aug 31, 2017 4:20 pm

sma10 wrote:Climatology seems to be the buzz word around here, but seriously - why not just use CLIPER then? One of the reasons to track storms with computer models is because they don't always behave exactly as you think they're supposed to.


If you can post it, that'll be great.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1546 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Aug 31, 2017 4:24 pm

sma10 wrote:
GeneratorPower wrote:
CourierPR wrote:In a recent tweet, Met. Joe Bastardi noted he is staying with the Euro. He also said that the GFS might score a coup but he doubts it.


Can you remember the last time the GFS scored a meaningful "coup"? I didn't think so. Neither can I.


And BTW, which coup is he referring to ... The harmless out to sea solution? The cat 5 monster into NC? Or the freight train into Nova Scotia? :cheesy:


Through day 10, the GFS is showing a recurve, and has been really consistent. Looking at its forecast from day 11-to-16 is useless.
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1547 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Aug 31, 2017 4:25 pm

SFLcane wrote:Hard to bet against the euro but I'll be floored if Irma manages to make it into the se Bahamas.
It could head south of the se bahamas

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1548 Postby meriland29 » Thu Aug 31, 2017 4:26 pm

Why don't we focus on the 18z run now ...


Image
Last edited by meriland29 on Thu Aug 31, 2017 4:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1549 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 31, 2017 4:27 pm

I don't want to get too far off topic here since this is the model thread, but in the end climatology means didley squat. If we're going by climatology alone then a major US city shouldn't have just received 52 inches of rain in 4 days...but it did. Just because something has never been recorded to happen, doesn't mean it won't happen. We don't know what storms formed near the Cabo Verde islands and struck the CONUS back before records were kept. For all we know it could have happened multiple times in one year.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1550 Postby GeneratorPower » Thu Aug 31, 2017 4:28 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:It's very hard to bet against the Euro once a system is established. While the GFS did get it right with 92L concerning cyclogenesis, it's too difficult to ignore the comparison on Harvey. Unfortunately I'm going to have to go 80/20 with the Euro.


The Euro is trustworthy enough to take preliminary preparedness actions at day 10. I'm not talking about evacuating! I'm saying things like having extra fuel on hand and trimming the palm trees. Basically stage 2 of hurricane preparedness action plans. We'll get to stage 3 when the NHC forecast shows us in the cone. The Euro, like any model, is not a forecast...just a tool. But it's darn good at being in the neighborhood. And we already have a Cat 3 on our hands.
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1551 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Aug 31, 2017 4:28 pm

hohnywx wrote:
SFLcane wrote:Euro will probably cave in soon atleast that's the hope


I think hope is all you have here unfortunately...the GFS has been bouncing all over the place and has been consistently too far north.
Why buy the gfs, its been north of the track since yesterday... If it can't handle the track at 24h why believe it at 48 or 72h and beyond

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1552 Postby meriland29 » Thu Aug 31, 2017 4:29 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1553 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 31, 2017 4:30 pm

12 hours...further South than 12z

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1554 Postby WAcyclone » Thu Aug 31, 2017 4:30 pm

ECMWF control run:

Image

Source: weather.us
Last edited by WAcyclone on Thu Aug 31, 2017 4:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1555 Postby meriland29 » Thu Aug 31, 2017 4:30 pm

There aint no point arguing which of the two are right over 10 days out...
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1556 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Aug 31, 2017 4:31 pm

GeneratorPower wrote:
CourierPR wrote:In a recent tweet, Met. Joe Bastardi noted he is staying with the Euro. He also said that the GFS might score a coup but he doubts it.


Can you remember the last time the GFS scored a meaningful "coup"? I didn't think so. Neither can I.
Gfs was actually better with Matthew than euro, maybe not a coup...when gfs can get the first 24h of Irma correct I will give it more weight

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1557 Postby meriland29 » Thu Aug 31, 2017 4:31 pm

18

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1558 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 31, 2017 4:31 pm

WAcyclone wrote:ECMWF control run:

Image

Source: weather.us


That looks practically identical to Floyd
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1559 Postby meriland29 » Thu Aug 31, 2017 4:33 pm

30

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1560 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Thu Aug 31, 2017 4:33 pm

meriland29 wrote:Why don't we focus on the 18z run now ...


Image


Love that 8-) , I hope it verifies. I also hope Bermuda stays safe.
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