ATL: IRMA - Models

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bamajammer4eva
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1941 Postby bamajammer4eva » Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:28 am

Why doesn't it look further south to me?? I see slower and a position a little ENE of the last 00z run?? Deeper trough too.

Image
Last edited by bamajammer4eva on Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:29 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1942 Postby Langinbang187 » Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:29 am

Euro slightly N through 144
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1943 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:30 am

Look out!
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1944 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:31 am

bamajammer4eva wrote:Why doesn't it look further south to me?? I see slower and a position a little ENE of the last 00z run?? Deeper trough too.

Image

You are comparing both 00z's. I have a separate tab open for the 12z comparison.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1945 Postby Bocadude85 » Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:36 am

Seems to me that the Euro and the GFS are slowly coming together, I'm thinking the 240 hour position is going to quite a bit NE of the 12Z
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1946 Postby bamajammer4eva » Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:36 am

AxaltaRacing24 wrote:
bamajammer4eva wrote:Why doesn't it look further south to me?? I see slower and a position a little ENE of the last 00z run?? Deeper trough too.

[img]http://i.imgur.com/qyKP4K1.gif?1

You are comparing both 00z's. I have a separate tab open for the 12z comparison.


i do also but its really hard to compare when they are 12 hrs off on the valid times so I try to look at the previous 00 also.
Last edited by bamajammer4eva on Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:39 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1947 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:37 am

Slight north shift
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1948 Postby Blown Away » Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:38 am

Euro might be caving to GFS???
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1949 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:38 am

Blown Away wrote:Euro might be caving to GFS???

They're slowly caving towards each other. Euro north while the GFS races south.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1950 Postby Bocadude85 » Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:39 am

The trough isn't cutting of and retrograding SW like in the past few runs, probably a Carolina hit this run.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1951 Postby AutoPenalti » Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:40 am

Euro a bit north from this afternoon, still don't see a recurve like the GFS is showing yet.
Last edited by AutoPenalti on Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:43 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1952 Postby HurricaneEric » Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:40 am

Blown Away wrote:Euro might be caving to GFS???


I wouldn't go that far--yet. GFS has been trending more and more towards Euro, and now Euro is meeting it in the middle, so to say.

So Euro looks to trend (in this run at least) more south through day 5. After that, trending a bit north. Interesting run so far.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1953 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:41 am

HurricaneEric wrote:
Blown Away wrote:Euro might be caving to GFS???


I wouldn't go that far--yet. GFS has been trending more and more towards Euro, and now Euro is meeting it in the middle, so to say.

So Euro looks to trend (in this run at least) more south through day 5. After that, trending a bit north. Interesting run so far.

It's mainly due to the trough not getting cut off (yet)
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1954 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:41 am

Seen storms before in this region. I don't know why but the vortex can avoid land kinda
goes around it avoids a direct landfall. Hopes this is the case again with IRMA if the EC
pans out.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1955 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:43 am

OTS?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1956 Postby AutoPenalti » Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:44 am

It found an avenue.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1957 Postby CourierPR » Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:46 am

At 192 doesn't it appear that the trough is retrograding? I don't think this goes OTS.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1958 Postby bamajammer4eva » Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:48 am

CourierPR wrote:At 192 doesn't it appear that the trough is retrograding? I don't think this goes OTS.


Yeah its not retrograding west its just lifting as is the high so wouldn't steering just be gone??
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1959 Postby shaneomac » Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:48 am

CourierPR wrote:At 192 doesn't it appear that the trough is retrograding? I don't think this goes OTS.



Perhaps Maine hit again ? going to be interesting to watch unfold , figured the euro was to far south with the gom scenario . still long ways out for a consensus
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1960 Postby AutoPenalti » Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:49 am

bamajammer4eva wrote:
CourierPR wrote:At 192 doesn't it appear that the trough is retrograding? I don't think this goes OTS.


Yeah its not retrograding west its just lifting as is the high so wouldn't steering just be gone??

A major might be driven by the mean flow in this case right?
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged


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