ATL: IRMA - Models

[AxaltaRacing24]

Yet with a stronger ridge appears to be moving more poleward when it should be the opposite right?

Most likely. Just something to keep in mind.

[txwatcher91]

By hour 120 this is MUCH closer to the islands, a stronger ridge and a bit faster as well. It's not too far off from the Euro now although the Euro is still a little bit further south.

[SouthFLTropics]

With the trough positioned over the eastern half of the CONUS nothing is getting close. The only way that happens is if the trough cuts off...that's what to watch for now.

[facemane]

I have a question. There is a strong cold front that's expected to bring low temps near 60 in Biloxi Ms. Next wed,Thurs,and Friday. That's rare for this time of year. How will this affect future model tracks?

[weathaguyry]

132 hours

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... ics_23.png

[AxaltaRacing24]

Close call
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... atl_22.png

[Blown Away]

Full degree W and almost full degree S of 06z...

[BensonTCwatcher]

Trough is much sharper this run, if it does not cut off, this goes to sea.

[weathaguyry]

138 hours, ridge is definitely stronger than 06z...

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... ics_24.png

[AJC3]

I have a question. There is a strong cold front that's expected to bring low temps near 60 in Biloxi Ms. Next wed,Thurs,and Friday. That's rare for this time of year. How will this affect future model tracks?

The evolution of the mid to upper level trough that is driving the suface systems is what you want to look at instead of any sort of frontal boundary.

[tolakram]

12Z GFS so far.

[facemane]

I have a question. There is a strong cold front that's expected to bring low temps near 60 in Biloxi Ms. Next wed,Thurs,and Friday. That's rare for this time of year. How will this affect future model tracks?

The evolution of the mid to upper level trough that is driving the suface systems is what you want to look at instead of any sort of frontal boundary.

Thanks

[NDG]

What a nice diplomatic gesture, GFS and Euro keep trending to each other to a middle ground at 120 hrs after been so far apart from each other at that particular time.

[alienstorm]

The ULL to the east is pushing the high westward while the UL trough seems to be lifting out. Interesting dilemma looks to be 1/2 degree SW from 06Z run

[weathaguyry]

144 hours

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017090112/gfs_pres_wind_atltropics_25.png

[tolakram]

GFS Trend

[weathaguyry]

150 hours

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017090112/gfs_pres_wind_atltropics_26.png

[BucMan2]

It seems on the 12ZGFS that after the Islands the Trough comes way south and the ridge retreats temporarily and then builds right back in.
Any one see the same ?

[meriland29]

Looks like she is starting to make get northern way to sea

[weathaguyry]

156 hours

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017090112/gfs_pres_wind_atltropics_27.png