ATL: IRMA - Models

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txwatcher91
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2081 Postby txwatcher91 » Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:06 am

By hour 120 this is MUCH closer to the islands, a stronger ridge and a bit faster as well. It's not too far off from the Euro now although the Euro is still a little bit further south.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2082 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:07 am

With the trough positioned over the eastern half of the CONUS nothing is getting close. The only way that happens is if the trough cuts off...that's what to watch for now.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2083 Postby facemane » Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:07 am

I have a question. There is a strong cold front that's expected to bring low temps near 60 in Biloxi Ms. Next wed,Thurs,and Friday. That's rare for this time of year. How will this affect future model tracks?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2084 Postby weathaguyry » Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:07 am

132 hours

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... ics_23.png
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2085 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:07 am

Close call
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... atl_22.png
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2086 Postby Blown Away » Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:08 am

Full degree W and almost full degree S of 06z...
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2087 Postby BensonTCwatcher » Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:08 am

Trough is much sharper this run, if it does not cut off, this goes to sea.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2088 Postby weathaguyry » Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:09 am

138 hours, ridge is definitely stronger than 06z...

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... ics_24.png
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2089 Postby AJC3 » Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:09 am

facemane wrote:I have a question. There is a strong cold front that's expected to bring low temps near 60 in Biloxi Ms. Next wed,Thurs,and Friday. That's rare for this time of year. How will this affect future model tracks?


The evolution of the mid to upper level trough that is driving the suface systems is what you want to look at instead of any sort of frontal boundary.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2090 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:10 am

12Z GFS so far.
Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2091 Postby facemane » Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:11 am

AJC3 wrote:
facemane wrote:I have a question. There is a strong cold front that's expected to bring low temps near 60 in Biloxi Ms. Next wed,Thurs,and Friday. That's rare for this time of year. How will this affect future model tracks?


The evolution of the mid to upper level trough that is driving the suface systems is what you want to look at instead of any sort of frontal boundary.


Thanks
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2092 Postby NDG » Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:11 am

What a nice diplomatic gesture, GFS and Euro keep trending to each other to a middle ground at 120 hrs after been so far apart from each other at that particular time.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2093 Postby alienstorm » Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:11 am

The ULL to the east is pushing the high westward while the UL trough seems to be lifting out. Interesting dilemma looks to be 1/2 degree SW from 06Z run
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2094 Postby weathaguyry » Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:12 am

144 hours

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017090112/gfs_pres_wind_atltropics_25.png
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2095 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:12 am

GFS Trend

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2096 Postby weathaguyry » Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:13 am

150 hours

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017090112/gfs_pres_wind_atltropics_26.png
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2097 Postby BucMan2 » Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:14 am

It seems on the 12ZGFS that after the Islands the Trough comes way south and the ridge retreats temporarily and then builds right back in.
Any one see the same ?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2098 Postby meriland29 » Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:15 am

Looks like she is starting to make get northern way to sea
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2099 Postby weathaguyry » Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:17 am

156 hours

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017090112/gfs_pres_wind_atltropics_27.png
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2100 Postby weathaguyry » Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:18 am

162 hours

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017090112/gfs_pres_wind_watl_28.png
Last edited by weathaguyry on Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:19 am, edited 1 time in total.
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