ATL: IRMA - Models

[Bocadude85]

Everything is shifting west right now, this is really not looking good.

Except EPS apparently, which is very important. It seems it shifted east.

The GFS and Canadian ensembles shifted southwest however. Not to mention we are still 10 days out. Lots more model swings to come.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Everything is shifting west right now, this is really not looking good.

Except EPS apparently, which is very important. It seems it shifted east.

Windshield wiping is all it is. I am trying to not get too caught up in it but it's hard lol. Expect more shifts back and fourth until it nears the islands.

[RL3AO]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/903704826575560707

A quick comment from this. Look at how the stronger storms move the most to the WSW in the next 5 days. NHC's forecast matches up with this quite well.

[curtadams]

A quick comment from this. Look at how the stronger storms move the most to the WSW in the next 5 days.

Not good considering how strong Irma looks right now, with warmer water yet to come.

However, glad to see that even with the generally south-biased Euro most of the tracks miss the Antilles. They're not safe, but the odds look better.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/codyyeary/status/903710559371231232

[RL3AO]

 https://twitter.com/codyyeary/status/903710559371231232

That dude makes a great point.

[eastcoastFL]

Well now. Not liking the looks of that. My solace is that it is just one run 240 hours out. We have not had a storm that strong in that position with a blocking high for a long time in NC. But there is quite a bit of model agreement though 3-5 days so folks here will be keen on models at the current 96 hour official forecast point.

If that landfilled near Lauderdale-By-The-Sea, for example, that puts Dade, Broward, Palm Beach in Cat 2-5 winds... Wow

My worst fear for us on the Treasure Coast Blown Away is a landfalling Cat 4/5 in the Jupiter/Tequesta area. We would get hammered with the NW and NE quads of Cat 4/5 winds.

It would be Jeanne and Frances on steroids.

[jdjaguar]

If that landfilled near Lauderdale-By-The-Sea, for example, that puts Dade, Broward, Palm Beach in Cat 2-5 winds... Wow

My worst fear for us on the Treasure Coast Blown Away is a landfalling Cat 4/5 in the Jupiter/Tequesta area. We would get hammered with the NW and NE quads of Cat 4/5 winds.

It would be Jeanne and Frances on steroids.

i.e. Andrew

[HurricaneFrances04]

I still think we're too far away to say who in the CONUS is at risk and who isn't. Anything beyond 168 hours is fantasy, and even up to that point we are subject to wide swings in the models. We'll probably get a clearer picture on Monday. I still remember when Ike was supposed to recurve east of Florida, then hit Miami (the 5 day point was over the city at one advisory), then eventually rode the length of Cuba.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[eastcoastFL]

My worst fear for us on the Treasure Coast Blown Away is a landfalling Cat 4/5 in the Jupiter/Tequesta area. We would get hammered with the NW and NE quads of Cat 4/5 winds.

It would be Jeanne and Frances on steroids.

i.e. Andrew

Yes but Andrew was a lot further south.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Yes he did start further south, but still ended up in the Bahamas as will Irma. Then as it has already been stated what is the over all conditions as to where Irma ends up going.

[gatorcane]

12z Euro Ensembles look to have shifted a bit northeastward compared to the 0z run.

Yep here we are in the long-range with highest concentration east of Florida/Bahamas but still some heading into Florida/Bahamas:

[ConvergenceZone]

It doesn't matter that the EURO control runs are showing out to sea right now, because we know they will probably be showing West by tonight. I've seen it time and time again

[RL3AO]

From Brian Tang's page.

Here are the track errors so far. Obviously a really tiny sample size, but NHC showing why they're the best at 48 hours so far.

[gatorcane]

Below I have posted the 192-240 hour 12Z ECMWF 500MB height anomalies animation. Notice up in Canada there is an mid-level low pressure system that seems to come out of nowhere which is just enough to weaken the ridge off the East Coast of the US to allow Irma to turn just before Florida. I notice the CMC and GFS models do not show this mid-level low feature in the same timeframe. Instead they show a sprawling ridge over Eastern Canada.

[SeaBrz_FL]

Below I have posted the 192-240 hour 12Z ECMWF 500MB height anomalies animation. Notice up in Canada there is an mid-level low pressure system that seems to come out of nowhere which is just enough to weaken the ridge off the East Coast of the US to allow Irma to turn just before Florida. I notice the CMC and GFS models do not show this mid-level low feature in the same timeframe. Instead they show a sprawling ridge over Eastern Canada.

No, no, no GC. Wash your mouth out with soap .. or salt water.

[HurricaneEdouard]

HWRF has Irma develop a large eye by 60 hours and then blossoms the CDO to produce a massive monster by 96.

[SunnyThoughts]

18z gfs rolling

[RL3AO]

The happy hour GFS has been a source of craziness this season. No reason it won't continue.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Stronger and more N