ATL: IRMA - Models

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tarheelprogrammer
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2361 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Fri Sep 01, 2017 2:47 pm

BYG Jacob wrote:Everything is shifting west right now, this is really not looking good.


Except EPS apparently, which is very important. It seems it shifted east.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2362 Postby Bocadude85 » Fri Sep 01, 2017 2:53 pm

tarheelprogrammer wrote:
BYG Jacob wrote:Everything is shifting west right now, this is really not looking good.


Except EPS apparently, which is very important. It seems it shifted east.


The GFS and Canadian ensembles shifted southwest however. Not to mention we are still 10 days out. Lots more model swings to come.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2363 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Fri Sep 01, 2017 3:00 pm

tarheelprogrammer wrote:
BYG Jacob wrote:Everything is shifting west right now, this is really not looking good.


Except EPS apparently, which is very important. It seems it shifted east.

Windshield wiping is all it is. I am trying to not get too caught up in it but it's hard lol. Expect more shifts back and fourth until it nears the islands.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2364 Postby RL3AO » Fri Sep 01, 2017 3:05 pm



A quick comment from this. Look at how the stronger storms move the most to the WSW in the next 5 days. NHC's forecast matches up with this quite well.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2365 Postby curtadams » Fri Sep 01, 2017 3:08 pm

RL3AO wrote:
RL3AO wrote:

A quick comment from this. Look at how the stronger storms move the most to the WSW in the next 5 days.
Not good considering how strong Irma looks right now, with warmer water yet to come.

However, glad to see that even with the generally south-biased Euro most of the tracks miss the Antilles. They're not safe, but the odds look better.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2366 Postby SFLcane » Fri Sep 01, 2017 3:14 pm

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2367 Postby RL3AO » Fri Sep 01, 2017 3:16 pm



That dude makes a great point. :lol:
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2368 Postby eastcoastFL » Fri Sep 01, 2017 3:31 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:
Blown Away wrote:
BensonTCwatcher wrote:
Well now. Not liking the looks of that. My solace is that it is just one run 240 hours out. We have not had a storm that strong in that position with a blocking high for a long time in NC. But there is quite a bit of model agreement though 3-5 days so folks here will be keen on models at the current 96 hour official forecast point.


If that landfilled near Lauderdale-By-The-Sea, for example, that puts Dade, Broward, Palm Beach in Cat 2-5 winds... Wow


My worst fear for us on the Treasure Coast Blown Away is a landfalling Cat 4/5 in the Jupiter/Tequesta area. We would get hammered with the NW and NE quads of Cat 4/5 winds.


It would be Jeanne and Frances on steroids.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2369 Postby jdjaguar » Fri Sep 01, 2017 3:38 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:
SouthFLTropics wrote:
Blown Away wrote:
If that landfilled near Lauderdale-By-The-Sea, for example, that puts Dade, Broward, Palm Beach in Cat 2-5 winds... Wow


My worst fear for us on the Treasure Coast Blown Away is a landfalling Cat 4/5 in the Jupiter/Tequesta area. We would get hammered with the NW and NE quads of Cat 4/5 winds.


It would be Jeanne and Frances on steroids.

i.e. Andrew
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2370 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Fri Sep 01, 2017 3:40 pm

I still think we're too far away to say who in the CONUS is at risk and who isn't. Anything beyond 168 hours is fantasy, and even up to that point we are subject to wide swings in the models. We'll probably get a clearer picture on Monday. I still remember when Ike was supposed to recurve east of Florida, then hit Miami (the 5 day point was over the city at one advisory), then eventually rode the length of Cuba.

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2371 Postby eastcoastFL » Fri Sep 01, 2017 3:45 pm

jdjaguar wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:
SouthFLTropics wrote:
My worst fear for us on the Treasure Coast Blown Away is a landfalling Cat 4/5 in the Jupiter/Tequesta area. We would get hammered with the NW and NE quads of Cat 4/5 winds.


It would be Jeanne and Frances on steroids.

i.e. Andrew



Yes but Andrew was a lot further south.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2372 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Fri Sep 01, 2017 3:50 pm

Yes he did start further south, but still ended up in the Bahamas as will Irma. Then as it has already been stated what is the over all conditions as to where Irma ends up going.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2373 Postby gatorcane » Fri Sep 01, 2017 3:54 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:12z Euro Ensembles look to have shifted a bit northeastward compared to the 0z run.


Yep here we are in the long-range with highest concentration east of Florida/Bahamas but still some heading into Florida/Bahamas:

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2374 Postby ConvergenceZone » Fri Sep 01, 2017 3:56 pm

It doesn't matter that the EURO control runs are showing out to sea right now, because we know they will probably be showing West by tonight. I've seen it time and time again
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2375 Postby RL3AO » Fri Sep 01, 2017 4:15 pm

From Brian Tang's page.

Here are the track errors so far. Obviously a really tiny sample size, but NHC showing why they're the best at 48 hours so far.

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2376 Postby gatorcane » Fri Sep 01, 2017 4:19 pm

Below I have posted the 192-240 hour 12Z ECMWF 500MB height anomalies animation. Notice up in Canada there is an mid-level low pressure system that seems to come out of nowhere which is just enough to weaken the ridge off the East Coast of the US to allow Irma to turn just before Florida. I notice the CMC and GFS models do not show this mid-level low feature in the same timeframe. Instead they show a sprawling ridge over Eastern Canada.

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2377 Postby SeaBrz_FL » Fri Sep 01, 2017 4:30 pm

gatorcane wrote:Below I have posted the 192-240 hour 12Z ECMWF 500MB height anomalies animation. Notice up in Canada there is an mid-level low pressure system that seems to come out of nowhere which is just enough to weaken the ridge off the East Coast of the US to allow Irma to turn just before Florida. I notice the CMC and GFS models do not show this mid-level low feature in the same timeframe. Instead they show a sprawling ridge over Eastern Canada.

Image


No, no, no GC. Wash your mouth out with soap .. or salt water.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2378 Postby HurricaneEdouard » Fri Sep 01, 2017 4:30 pm

Image

HWRF has Irma develop a large eye by 60 hours and then blossoms the CDO to produce a massive monster by 96.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2379 Postby SunnyThoughts » Fri Sep 01, 2017 4:34 pm

18z gfs rolling
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2380 Postby RL3AO » Fri Sep 01, 2017 4:36 pm

The happy hour GFS has been a source of craziness this season. No reason it won't continue.
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