ATL: IRMA - Models

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2521 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Fri Sep 01, 2017 6:32 pm

Close your eyes Floridians!
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2522 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Fri Sep 01, 2017 6:34 pm

GFS/ENS showing a <980mb storm at 210hrs is intriguing indeed...
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2523 Postby joey » Fri Sep 01, 2017 6:34 pm

AxaltaRacing24 wrote:Close your eyes Floridians!
Image


strongest ive seen yet whoa :eek:
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2524 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Fri Sep 01, 2017 6:35 pm

And, just for kicks, the ENS have a significant Jose signal following the same path a few days later.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2525 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Fri Sep 01, 2017 6:36 pm

joey wrote:
AxaltaRacing24 wrote:Close your eyes Floridians!


strongest ive seen yet whoa :eek:

It's ridiculous
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2526 Postby ColdMiser123 » Fri Sep 01, 2017 6:36 pm

Hurricane Andrew wrote:GFS/ENS showing a <980mb storm at 210hrs is intriguing indeed...


Even worse, a bunch of the members show future Jose making landfall within a week of where Irma did.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2527 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Fri Sep 01, 2017 6:37 pm

Hurricane Andrew wrote:And, just for kicks, the ENS have a significant Jose signal following the same path a few days later.

It's almost like this season is punishing us for 12 years of relative calm.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2528 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Fri Sep 01, 2017 6:37 pm

ColdMiser123 wrote:
Hurricane Andrew wrote:GFS/ENS showing a <980mb storm at 210hrs is intriguing indeed...


Even worse, a bunch of the members show future Jose making landfall within a week of where Irma did.

Luckily we are still so far out
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2529 Postby Happy Pelican » Fri Sep 01, 2017 6:37 pm

Hurricane Andrew wrote:Hahahaha the GFS wipes me from the face of the earth.



Me too, my friend. I'm about a half mile from where the roller coaster went into the ocean, on a little island between the barrier island and the mainland. I just saw the GFS AMD NEARLY THREW UP.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2530 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Sep 01, 2017 6:37 pm

HWRF a hair slower but essentially in the same location as 12z

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Last edited by SouthFLTropics on Fri Sep 01, 2017 6:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2531 Postby SouthDadeFish » Fri Sep 01, 2017 6:38 pm

18Z HWRF is going nuts with Irma. Down to 923 mb at 108 hours.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2532 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Fri Sep 01, 2017 6:38 pm

Happy Pelican wrote:
Hurricane Andrew wrote:Hahahaha the GFS wipes me from the face of the earth.



Me too, my friend. I'm about a half mile from where the roller coaster went into the ocean, on a little island between the barrier island and the mainland. I just saw the GFS AMD NEARLY THREW UP.

Well, we are still in the D8-D10 range. I expect the 00z suite will do something different, lol.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2533 Postby RL3AO » Fri Sep 01, 2017 6:38 pm

For the first time, the GFS and Euro ensembles are pretty much in agreement in 8 days. A major hurricane near the Bahamas.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2534 Postby Raebie » Fri Sep 01, 2017 6:39 pm

Hell, might as well just put a map of the east coast on my dartboard right now.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2535 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Sep 01, 2017 6:41 pm

AxaltaRacing24 wrote:Close your eyes Floridians!
Image


What in the wide world of sports is going on around here?? That's crazy. Ironically, now I'm feeling more comfortable that we are being targeted at 9 plus days away.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2536 Postby ColdMiser123 » Fri Sep 01, 2017 6:43 pm

A significantly more robust WATL ridge is the primary culprit in bringing almost all members into the United States.

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2537 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Sep 01, 2017 6:44 pm

It's interesting to see the GEFS spread considerably to the southwest in the medium range when compared to the operational run. The GEFS envelope is generally thought to be a little under-dispersive in many cases, but the operational run isn't even in the envelope.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2538 Postby SunnyThoughts » Fri Sep 01, 2017 6:46 pm

So what would make the operational run sooooo much farther North than the ensembles?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2539 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Sep 01, 2017 6:48 pm

HWRF about a degree further north...Looks like it will spare the islands a direct hit this time. Going bonkers on intensity at 927MB, 120 Knots

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2540 Postby Nimbus » Fri Sep 01, 2017 6:49 pm

AxaltaRacing24 wrote:Close your eyes Floridians!
Image


A lot at stake with this storm maybe they are bringing in the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA)? They used the supercomputers there to process all the Keyhole satellite data back in the day.
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