ATL: IRMA - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
hurricaneCW
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1794
Joined: Wed Mar 03, 2010 6:20 am
Location: Toms River, NJ

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2561 Postby hurricaneCW » Fri Sep 01, 2017 7:38 pm

You can speculate all you want but none of it is legit because it's 8+ days out. I can't even take these runs seriously until Irma is near the islands.

As far as I know all options remain on the table.
6 likes   

User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9623
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: Not a state-caster

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2562 Postby Steve » Fri Sep 01, 2017 7:38 pm

Michele B wrote:
ColdMiser123 wrote:
Blown Away wrote:
Can you post image?


Had to do a double take when I first ran through this on WSI.

Image


Yeah, I saw this. Looks like Charley again.

I don't want to go through that again! But preps are just about done, so...now we wait.


Yeah Michele, I know you don't want to go through it again. Personally, I don't really see the similarity. Charley was a relatively small system, like less than half the size of what's depicted for Irma. And it hit from SSW rather than SE/ESE though I wouldn't be surprised if Irma hits SE/EC FL if it doesn't just come up through the northern half of the Peninsula and through S and SE GA.
Last edited by Steve on Fri Sep 01, 2017 7:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9623
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: Not a state-caster

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2563 Postby Steve » Fri Sep 01, 2017 7:40 pm

hurricaneCW wrote:You can speculate all you want but none of it is legit because it's 8+ days out. I can't even take these runs seriously until Irma is near the islands.

As far as I know all options remain on the table.


Right. But isn't that kind of the point 8 days out on the model forum? We only have the models to take us into the future, and that's what the speculation is about. I don't think anyone believes for a minute that the 18Z GFS is set in stone or Gospel. Far from it.
5 likes   

jlauderdal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 7185
Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
Contact:

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2564 Postby jlauderdal » Fri Sep 01, 2017 7:40 pm

ColdMiser123 wrote:A significantly more robust WATL ridge is the primary culprit in bringing almost all members into the United States.

Image
that very deep trough as modeled previously seemed a bit overdone...lets hope it returns and stays
0 likes   

User avatar
pgoss11
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 702
Joined: Tue Sep 02, 2003 3:55 pm

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2565 Postby pgoss11 » Fri Sep 01, 2017 7:41 pm

Really a scary consensus. Especialy with no land masses affecting the trek across the Atlantic.
0 likes   

jlauderdal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 7185
Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
Contact:

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2566 Postby jlauderdal » Fri Sep 01, 2017 7:44 pm

SouthDadeFish wrote:18Z HWRF is going nuts with Irma. Down to 923 mb at 108 hours.
923 is a bit weak compared to what we saw in the last 48h, the gfs was under 900 on some runs..no reason to think at this point that area north of the mona passage , bahamas, se florida wouldnt support a 4/5
0 likes   

hurricaneCW
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1794
Joined: Wed Mar 03, 2010 6:20 am
Location: Toms River, NJ

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2567 Postby hurricaneCW » Fri Sep 01, 2017 7:45 pm

Steve wrote:
hurricaneCW wrote:You can speculate all you want but none of it is legit because it's 8+ days out. I can't even take these runs seriously until Irma is near the islands.

As far as I know all options remain on the table.


Right. But isn't that kind of the point 8 days out on the model forum? We only have the models to take us into the future, and that's what the speculation is about. I don't think anyone believes for a minute that the 18Z GFS is set in stone or Gospel. Far from it.


The only thing that's probably likely is that Irma will be a large, powerful system as it comes closer to us. Models don't just spew out such strong intensities 8+ days out without some merit.

Models have also been good once we get in the 5 day time frame. Somewhere between 5-7 days is where things start to split off and even more so beyond day 7 that can have major repercussions for Irma.
0 likes   

AxaltaRacing24
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1753
Age: 25
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:14 am
Location: Jupiter, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2568 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Fri Sep 01, 2017 7:45 pm

pgoss11 wrote:Really a scary consensus. Especialy with no land masses affecting the trek across the Atlantic.

Anywhere that gets hit by the eye is going to be wiped off the map if the GFS's intensity comes close to verifying.
Last edited by AxaltaRacing24 on Fri Sep 01, 2017 7:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
1 likes   

User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9623
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: Not a state-caster

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2569 Postby Steve » Fri Sep 01, 2017 7:46 pm

pgoss11 wrote:Really a scary consensus. Especialy with no land masses affecting the trek across the Atlantic.


For sure. But at the same time, the Bahamas have been my #1 worry the last several days. I know there's a shot at effects in the NE Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico, but the Bahamas who have been smacked numerous times in the last several years, look to have Cat 4/5 effects there in just about a week. Hopefully Irma goes north or east of most of them.
1 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23692
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2570 Postby gatorcane » Fri Sep 01, 2017 7:47 pm

Looking closely at that 18Z GFS run the Western Atlantic ridge is actually stronger and more westward than the 12Z by a good amount once the system is north of the islands. But the ridge is surprisingly slightly weaker when the system is east of the Leewards in the short range. So that causes the short to medium track to be more to the right, so by the time the ridge builds back, the storm is already too far north to be driven into the Bahamas like the GEFS shows. It is a questionable run and do think the GFS OP will be shifting westward in light of the GEFS, ECMWF, and CMC tracks.
Last edited by gatorcane on Fri Sep 01, 2017 7:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9623
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: Not a state-caster

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2571 Postby Steve » Fri Sep 01, 2017 7:48 pm

hurricaneCW wrote:
Steve wrote:
hurricaneCW wrote:You can speculate all you want but none of it is legit because it's 8+ days out. I can't even take these runs seriously until Irma is near the islands.

As far as I know all options remain on the table.


Right. But isn't that kind of the point 8 days out on the model forum? We only have the models to take us into the future, and that's what the speculation is about. I don't think anyone believes for a minute that the 18Z GFS is set in stone or Gospel. Far from it.


The only thing that's probably likely is that Irma will be a large, powerful system as it comes closer to us. Models don't just spew out such strong intensities 8+ days out without some merit.

Models have also been good once we get in the 5 day time frame. Somewhere between 5-7 days is where things start to split off and even more so beyond day 7 that can have major repercussions for Irma.


I don't disagree. I don't trust them at all beyond 5 days this year unless the major models are all together on something. But once we get inside 5 days, I'm more comfortable that I can glean through the biases and be somewhat close. Rock and I were discussing that earlier. Short of major consensus across the board, I think Tuesday is the day we really can start narrowing things down. There will usually be a surprise or hiccup to the general agreement, but that comes with the territory of course.
2 likes   

User avatar
dizzyfish
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1519
Joined: Fri Sep 16, 2005 7:56 am
Location: New Port Richey, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2572 Postby dizzyfish » Fri Sep 01, 2017 7:49 pm

Good Evening All,

I keep telling myself not to "look" until Tuesday at the earliest as I know the models will flip and flop and drive us crazy. But here I am and damn!

I thank you all for your input and for the wait and see posts. It really does help and it is much appreciated. As narrow as Florida is and as large as Irma looks to become it would be bad coast to coast here. Ugh.

To those in the islands - we wary. I'm not sure I could sleep nights were I in your shoes. You are in my thoughts and prayers as are those in Texas.

Peace to all and may Irma turn fishy!!!! 8-)
4 likes   

Digital-TC-Chaser

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2573 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Fri Sep 01, 2017 7:50 pm

Brad Panovich
People realize #Irma is 3 times closer to Africa than the U.S. right now...right?
0 likes   

User avatar
pgoss11
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 702
Joined: Tue Sep 02, 2003 3:55 pm

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2574 Postby pgoss11 » Fri Sep 01, 2017 7:51 pm

Steve wrote:
pgoss11 wrote:Really a scary consensus. Especialy with no land masses affecting the trek across the Atlantic.


For sure. But at the same time, the Bahamas have been my #1 worry the last several days. I know there's a shot at effects in the NE Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico, but the Bahamas who have been smacked numerous times in the last several years, look to have Cat 4/5 effects there in just about a week. Hopefully Irma goes north or east of most of them.

Agreed. This beautiful storm will hopefully not be a problem for anyone but I fear those odds are diminishing.
0 likes   

User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10154
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2575 Postby Blown Away » Fri Sep 01, 2017 7:52 pm

That E Coast majic door always a very high probability no matter what the models say... Floridians have 9 days for Irma to find that door... :D
2 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05… Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…

User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4236
Age: 50
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2576 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Sep 01, 2017 7:52 pm

gatorcane wrote:Looking closely at that 18Z GFS run the Western Atlantic ridge is actually stronger and more westward than the 12Z by a good amount once the system is north of the islands. But the ridge is surprisingly slightly weaker when the system is east of the Leewards in the short range. So that causes the short to medium track to be more to the right, so by the time the ridge builds back, the storm is already too far north to be driven into the Bahamas like the GEFS shows. It is a questionable run and do think the GFS OP will be shifting westward in light of the GEFS, ECMWF, and CMC tracks.


I think what caused that was the ULL to the NW of Irma...It was shown earlier in the 18z GFS.
0 likes   
Fourth Generation Florida Native

Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23692
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2577 Postby gatorcane » Fri Sep 01, 2017 7:57 pm

00Z guidance:


Image
0 likes   

User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4236
Age: 50
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2578 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Sep 01, 2017 8:00 pm

It's Friday night of a long weekend...Who's staying up for tonight's Euro??? I'm in!!!
5 likes   
Fourth Generation Florida Native

Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24

RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2579 Postby RL3AO » Fri Sep 01, 2017 8:05 pm

stormreader wrote:
AxaltaRacing24 wrote:The one thing that I am concerned about is that no matter how powerful the windshield wiping is, we still have our 3 best models showing landfalls, which is the last thing this country needs.


Not going out to sea. Personally, I'm ruling out the Outer Banks and points north. So don't think it will even be close to going out to sea. Still possible it approaches SE coast and makes a strong NW jog toward the Cape Fear, NC area, but that's about as far north as I think it would go. So broad area for me is Cape Fear, NC down to the coast of Cuba. See how that plays out for a couple of days. If that looks to verify, then further refine it then.


That's as crazy of a statement as the people who have been saying this has no chance of hitting the US for a week now.
7 likes   

User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 22790
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2580 Postby Ntxw » Fri Sep 01, 2017 8:10 pm

Model skill is really only good to great about 3 days out, and that's assuming everything is fluid. 5 days maybe you put some weight to the Euro since historically skill scores that far out it performs better than other guidance in general. That's its wheel barrow and it's in the name (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast; ECMWF). Beyond that is little more than an educated guess at best.
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

  Help support Storm2K!
Help Support Storm2K


Return to “2017”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests