ATL: IRMA - Models

[Steve]

Can you post image?

Had to do a double take when I first ran through this on WSI.

Yeah, I saw this. Looks like Charley again.

I don't want to go through that again! But preps are just about done, so...now we wait.

Yeah Michele, I know you don't want to go through it again. Personally, I don't really see the similarity. Charley was a relatively small system, like less than half the size of what's depicted for Irma. And it hit from SSW rather than SE/ESE though I wouldn't be surprised if Irma hits SE/EC FL if it doesn't just come up through the northern half of the Peninsula and through S and SE GA.

[Steve]

You can speculate all you want but none of it is legit because it's 8+ days out. I can't even take these runs seriously until Irma is near the islands.

As far as I know all options remain on the table.

Right. But isn't that kind of the point 8 days out on the model forum? We only have the models to take us into the future, and that's what the speculation is about. I don't think anyone believes for a minute that the 18Z GFS is set in stone or Gospel. Far from it.

[jlauderdal]

A significantly more robust WATL ridge is the primary culprit in bringing almost all members into the United States.

that very deep trough as modeled previously seemed a bit overdone...lets hope it returns and stays

[pgoss11]

Really a scary consensus. Especialy with no land masses affecting the trek across the Atlantic.

[jlauderdal]

18Z HWRF is going nuts with Irma. Down to 923 mb at 108 hours.

923 is a bit weak compared to what we saw in the last 48h, the gfs was under 900 on some runs..no reason to think at this point that area north of the mona passage , bahamas, se florida wouldnt support a 4/5

[hurricaneCW]

You can speculate all you want but none of it is legit because it's 8+ days out. I can't even take these runs seriously until Irma is near the islands.

As far as I know all options remain on the table.

Right. But isn't that kind of the point 8 days out on the model forum? We only have the models to take us into the future, and that's what the speculation is about. I don't think anyone believes for a minute that the 18Z GFS is set in stone or Gospel. Far from it.

The only thing that's probably likely is that Irma will be a large, powerful system as it comes closer to us. Models don't just spew out such strong intensities 8+ days out without some merit.

Models have also been good once we get in the 5 day time frame. Somewhere between 5-7 days is where things start to split off and even more so beyond day 7 that can have major repercussions for Irma.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Really a scary consensus. Especialy with no land masses affecting the trek across the Atlantic.

Anywhere that gets hit by the eye is going to be wiped off the map if the GFS's intensity comes close to verifying.

[Steve]

Really a scary consensus. Especialy with no land masses affecting the trek across the Atlantic.

For sure. But at the same time, the Bahamas have been my #1 worry the last several days. I know there's a shot at effects in the NE Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico, but the Bahamas who have been smacked numerous times in the last several years, look to have Cat 4/5 effects there in just about a week. Hopefully Irma goes north or east of most of them.

[gatorcane]

Looking closely at that 18Z GFS run the Western Atlantic ridge is actually stronger and more westward than the 12Z by a good amount once the system is north of the islands. But the ridge is surprisingly slightly weaker when the system is east of the Leewards in the short range. So that causes the short to medium track to be more to the right, so by the time the ridge builds back, the storm is already too far north to be driven into the Bahamas like the GEFS shows. It is a questionable run and do think the GFS OP will be shifting westward in light of the GEFS, ECMWF, and CMC tracks.

[Steve]

You can speculate all you want but none of it is legit because it's 8+ days out. I can't even take these runs seriously until Irma is near the islands.

As far as I know all options remain on the table.

Right. But isn't that kind of the point 8 days out on the model forum? We only have the models to take us into the future, and that's what the speculation is about. I don't think anyone believes for a minute that the 18Z GFS is set in stone or Gospel. Far from it.

The only thing that's probably likely is that Irma will be a large, powerful system as it comes closer to us. Models don't just spew out such strong intensities 8+ days out without some merit.

Models have also been good once we get in the 5 day time frame. Somewhere between 5-7 days is where things start to split off and even more so beyond day 7 that can have major repercussions for Irma.

I don't disagree. I don't trust them at all beyond 5 days this year unless the major models are all together on something. But once we get inside 5 days, I'm more comfortable that I can glean through the biases and be somewhat close. Rock and I were discussing that earlier. Short of major consensus across the board, I think Tuesday is the day we really can start narrowing things down. There will usually be a surprise or hiccup to the general agreement, but that comes with the territory of course.

[dizzyfish]

Good Evening All,

I keep telling myself not to "look" until Tuesday at the earliest as I know the models will flip and flop and drive us crazy. But here I am and damn!

I thank you all for your input and for the wait and see posts. It really does help and it is much appreciated. As narrow as Florida is and as large as Irma looks to become it would be bad coast to coast here. Ugh.

To those in the islands - we wary. I'm not sure I could sleep nights were I in your shoes. You are in my thoughts and prayers as are those in Texas.

Peace to all and may Irma turn fishy!!!!

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Brad Panovich
People realize #Irma is 3 times closer to Africa than the U.S. right now...right?

[pgoss11]

Really a scary consensus. Especialy with no land masses affecting the trek across the Atlantic.

For sure. But at the same time, the Bahamas have been my #1 worry the last several days. I know there's a shot at effects in the NE Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico, but the Bahamas who have been smacked numerous times in the last several years, look to have Cat 4/5 effects there in just about a week. Hopefully Irma goes north or east of most of them.

Agreed. This beautiful storm will hopefully not be a problem for anyone but I fear those odds are diminishing.

[Blown Away]

That E Coast majic door always a very high probability no matter what the models say... Floridians have 9 days for Irma to find that door...

[SouthFLTropics]

Looking closely at that 18Z GFS run the Western Atlantic ridge is actually stronger and more westward than the 12Z by a good amount once the system is north of the islands. But the ridge is surprisingly slightly weaker when the system is east of the Leewards in the short range. So that causes the short to medium track to be more to the right, so by the time the ridge builds back, the storm is already too far north to be driven into the Bahamas like the GEFS shows. It is a questionable run and do think the GFS OP will be shifting westward in light of the GEFS, ECMWF, and CMC tracks.

I think what caused that was the ULL to the NW of Irma...It was shown earlier in the 18z GFS.

[gatorcane]

00Z guidance:

[SouthFLTropics]

It's Friday night of a long weekend...Who's staying up for tonight's Euro??? I'm in!!!

[RL3AO]

The one thing that I am concerned about is that no matter how powerful the windshield wiping is, we still have our 3 best models showing landfalls, which is the last thing this country needs.

Not going out to sea. Personally, I'm ruling out the Outer Banks and points north. So don't think it will even be close to going out to sea. Still possible it approaches SE coast and makes a strong NW jog toward the Cape Fear, NC area, but that's about as far north as I think it would go. So broad area for me is Cape Fear, NC down to the coast of Cuba. See how that plays out for a couple of days. If that looks to verify, then further refine it then.

That's as crazy of a statement as the people who have been saying this has no chance of hitting the US for a week now.

[Ntxw]

Model skill is really only good to great about 3 days out, and that's assuming everything is fluid. 5 days maybe you put some weight to the Euro since historically skill scores that far out it performs better than other guidance in general. That's its wheel barrow and it's in the name (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast; ECMWF). Beyond that is little more than an educated guess at best.

[GCANE]