ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion
I wonder why the eye is clouding over so much now. Only thing I can think of would be another EWRC starting as everything else looks fine.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion
HurricaneRyan wrote:Irma is quite the drama queen
If I were that good looking, I probably would be, too!

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion
txwatcher91 wrote:I wonder why the eye is clouding over so much now. Only thing I can think of would be another EWRC starting as everything else looks fine.
Just normal pulsing up and down of a very fluid system. They never stay in a complete steady state.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion
cycloneye wrote:@EricBlake12
Good case where I would love to see recon data✈️ satellite estimates fluctuating big time but is it really representing the surface? #Irma
https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/903778821677223936
Where is Christopher Walken when you need him...Haven't seen that meme on here in years!!! I GOTTA HAVE MORE RECON BABY!!! Any word on when they'll fly the GlobalHawk out there?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion
gatorcane wrote:It looks like the turn to the WSW may be in progress looking at the SW side of the storm with clouds expanding WSW.
I noticed this as well but I wasn't sure if it would continue enough to show a trend. It seems a little early for the SW bend. Now if it is then that maybe a sign of an even stronger and deeper ridge
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion
Frank2 wrote:Irma now north of the official track:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif
And at some point I'm certain she'll be south of the forecast points, and then again north and then again maybe south and on and on.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion
The ULL to the north of Irma looks like it's on its last leg. Pretty soon that ridge will finish it off.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion
Irma is shedding pretty much all of its banding and the CDO, even though the eye is covered by clouds, has expanded considerably. I envision a solution like the one the HWRF proposes where Irma is beginning annular transition; despite the fact that it appears weaker the fact that it is growing more symmetrical means that if the eye redevelops it will be practically annular already.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion
A toggle between nighttime images of Suomi NPP VIIRS Infrared Window (11.45 µm) and Day/Night Band (0.7 µm) data at 0347 UTC (courtesy of William Straka, SSEC/CIMSS) showed a high-resolution view of the eye of Category 3 Hurricane Irma.


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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion
If you look at Emanuel's theoretical maximum intensity for Irma's location (black dot), it really isn't that far from the max. It would suggest a pressure in the 950s and winds near 115 kts is the maximum intensity given the current water temps. The water temps increase from here, but it maybe shouldn't be a shock that it's struggling to get to and maintain a cat 4 appearance.


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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion
SouthFLTropics wrote:cycloneye wrote:@EricBlake12
Good case where I would love to see recon data✈️ satellite estimates fluctuating big time but is it really representing the surface? #Irma
https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/903778821677223936
Where is Christopher Walken when you need him...Haven't seen that meme on here in years!!! I GOTTA HAVE MORE RECON BABY!!! Any word on when they'll fly the GlobalHawk out there?
In Fridays TCPOD,it was not mentioned but Gonzo will be up there on Monday.
A G-IV SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION AROUND IRMA
WITH TAKEOFF OF 04/1730
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion
A little old now, but here's the best track and new ACE total.

ATCF Best Track
System ID: AL11 (IRMA)
0000 UTC Sep 02, 2017
Location: 19.1°N, 39.8°W
Central Pressure: 964 mb
Maximum Winds (1-min): 105 kt (121 mph)
Type: Category 3 Hurricane (HU)
ACE (Storm Total): 7.725
System ID: AL11 (IRMA)
0000 UTC Sep 02, 2017
Location: 19.1°N, 39.8°W
Central Pressure: 964 mb
Maximum Winds (1-min): 105 kt (121 mph)
Type: Category 3 Hurricane (HU)
ACE (Storm Total): 7.725

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion
RL3AO wrote:If you look at Emanuel's theoretical maximum intensity for Irma's location (black dot), it really isn't that far from the max. It would suggest a pressure in the 950s and winds near 115 kts is the maximum intensity given the current water temps. The water temps increase from here, but it maybe shouldn't be a shock that it's struggling to get to and maintain a cat 4 appearance.
[image removed]
I'm actually a little bit surprised Irma has been able to semi-maintain the whites on the BD curve (-70ºC tops) within parts of the CDO for the past few hours. I wasn't sure if the sea surface temperatures would be able to support that.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion
HurricaneRyan wrote:Irma is quite the drama queen
Someone might cry you a river. Literally.
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I know I can't straddle the atmosphere...just a tiny storm in your teacup, girl.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion
RL3AO wrote:If you look at Emanuel's theoretical maximum intensity for Irma's location (black dot), it really isn't that far from the max. It would suggest a pressure in the 950s and winds near 115 kts is the maximum intensity given the current water temps. The water temps increase from here, but it maybe shouldn't be a shock that it's struggling to get to and maintain a cat 4 appearance.
Is this the maximum intensity based on the Carnot cycle approximation? Or is it a bit more accurate than that?
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I know I can't straddle the atmosphere...just a tiny storm in your teacup, girl.
Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion
storm_in_a_teacup wrote:Is this the maximum intensity based on the Carnot cycle approximation? Or is it a bit more accurate than that?
Described here
http://wind.mit.edu/~emanuel/pcmin/pclat/pclat.html
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion
I'll just leave this here.


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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion
Irma appears much worse on satellite. Does anyone know why this is? Is there an EWRC going on, or is the cold water just getting to Irma and weakening her core? The convection is plenty cold but the eye appears nonexistant.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion
tiger_deF wrote:Irma appears much worse on satellite. Does anyone know why this is? Is there an EWRC going on, or is the cold water just getting to Irma and weakening her core? The convection is plenty cold but the eye appears nonexistant.
The dry/stable EPAC like air around it and the cool waters. Similar to the area where EPAC storms spin-down. However, once this gets into moist warm waters, it is off to the races.
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