ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[txwatcher91]

I wonder why the eye is clouding over so much now. Only thing I can think of would be another EWRC starting as everything else looks fine.

[Michele B]

Irma is quite the drama queen

If I were that good looking, I probably would be, too!

[otowntiger]

I wonder why the eye is clouding over so much now. Only thing I can think of would be another EWRC starting as everything else looks fine.

Just normal pulsing up and down of a very fluid system. They never stay in a complete steady state.

[SouthFLTropics]

@EricBlake12
Good case where I would love to see recon data✈️ satellite estimates fluctuating big time but is it really representing the surface? #Irma

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/903778821677223936

Where is Christopher Walken when you need him...Haven't seen that meme on here in years!!! I GOTTA HAVE MORE RECON BABY!!! Any word on when they'll fly the GlobalHawk out there?

[eastcoastFL]

It looks like the turn to the WSW may be in progress looking at the SW side of the storm with clouds expanding WSW.

I noticed this as well but I wasn't sure if it would continue enough to show a trend. It seems a little early for the SW bend. Now if it is then that maybe a sign of an even stronger and deeper ridge

[otowntiger]

Irma now north of the official track:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

And at some point I'm certain she'll be south of the forecast points, and then again north and then again maybe south and on and on.

[eastcoastFL]

The ULL to the north of Irma looks like it's on its last leg. Pretty soon that ridge will finish it off.

[tiger_deF]

Irma is shedding pretty much all of its banding and the CDO, even though the eye is covered by clouds, has expanded considerably. I envision a solution like the one the HWRF proposes where Irma is beginning annular transition; despite the fact that it appears weaker the fact that it is growing more symmetrical means that if the eye redevelops it will be practically annular already.

[GCANE]

A toggle between nighttime images of Suomi NPP VIIRS Infrared Window (11.45 µm) and Day/Night Band (0.7 µm) data at 0347 UTC (courtesy of William Straka, SSEC/CIMSS) showed a high-resolution view of the eye of Category 3 Hurricane Irma.

[RL3AO]

If you look at Emanuel's theoretical maximum intensity for Irma's location (black dot), it really isn't that far from the max. It would suggest a pressure in the 950s and winds near 115 kts is the maximum intensity given the current water temps. The water temps increase from here, but it maybe shouldn't be a shock that it's struggling to get to and maintain a cat 4 appearance.

[cycloneye]

@EricBlake12
Good case where I would love to see recon data✈️ satellite estimates fluctuating big time but is it really representing the surface? #Irma

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/903778821677223936

Where is Christopher Walken when you need him...Haven't seen that meme on here in years!!! I GOTTA HAVE MORE RECON BABY!!! Any word on when they'll fly the GlobalHawk out there?

In Fridays TCPOD,it was not mentioned but Gonzo will be up there on Monday.


A G-IV SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION AROUND IRMA
WITH TAKEOFF OF 04/1730

[RL3AO]

A little old now, but here's the best track and new ACE total.

ATCF Best Track
System ID: AL11 (IRMA)
0000 UTC Sep 02, 2017
Location: 19.1°N, 39.8°W
Central Pressure: 964 mb
Maximum Winds (1-min): 105 kt (121 mph)
Type: Category 3 Hurricane (HU)
ACE (Storm Total): 7.725

[1900hurricane]

If you look at Emanuel's theoretical maximum intensity for Irma's location (black dot), it really isn't that far from the max. It would suggest a pressure in the 950s and winds near 115 kts is the maximum intensity given the current water temps. The water temps increase from here, but it maybe shouldn't be a shock that it's struggling to get to and maintain a cat 4 appearance.

[image removed]

I'm actually a little bit surprised Irma has been able to semi-maintain the whites on the BD curve (-70ºC tops) within parts of the CDO for the past few hours. I wasn't sure if the sea surface temperatures would be able to support that.

[storm_in_a_teacup]

Irma is quite the drama queen

Someone might cry you a river. Literally.

[storm_in_a_teacup]

If you look at Emanuel's theoretical maximum intensity for Irma's location (black dot), it really isn't that far from the max. It would suggest a pressure in the 950s and winds near 115 kts is the maximum intensity given the current water temps. The water temps increase from here, but it maybe shouldn't be a shock that it's struggling to get to and maintain a cat 4 appearance.

Is this the maximum intensity based on the Carnot cycle approximation? Or is it a bit more accurate than that?

[RL3AO]

Is this the maximum intensity based on the Carnot cycle approximation? Or is it a bit more accurate than that?

Described here

http://wind.mit.edu/~emanuel/pcmin/pclat/pclat.html

[tolakram]

I'll just leave this here.

[tolakram]

[tiger_deF]

Irma appears much worse on satellite. Does anyone know why this is? Is there an EWRC going on, or is the cold water just getting to Irma and weakening her core? The convection is plenty cold but the eye appears nonexistant.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Irma appears much worse on satellite. Does anyone know why this is? Is there an EWRC going on, or is the cold water just getting to Irma and weakening her core? The convection is plenty cold but the eye appears nonexistant.

The dry/stable EPAC like air around it and the cool waters. Similar to the area where EPAC storms spin-down. However, once this gets into moist warm waters, it is off to the races.