ATL: IRMA - Models

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weathaguyry
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2961 Postby weathaguyry » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:18 am

168

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2962 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:19 am

Trough lifting out @162hrs. Headed straight for the NC/SC border?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2963 Postby Alyono » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:19 am

trough weaker at 168 hours. That COULD allow an escape and not draw it into the coast
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2964 Postby xironman » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:19 am

AxaltaRacing24 wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:OTS this run?

Unlikely with a storm this far south this run.


The Bermuda ridge is also build back in @150
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2965 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:20 am

Has the 12z UKMET come in yet?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2966 Postby Ken711 » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:20 am

TheStormExpert wrote:Trough lifting out @162hrs. Headed straight for the NC/SC border?


I think further North towards the NC/VA border.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2967 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:21 am

HAHAHAHAHA 897mb heading right for me HAHAHA...uh oh.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2968 Postby Alyono » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:21 am

Unless the ridge builds in big time, the steering flow will direct this away from the mid Atlantic. Check out the simulated IR on tropical tidbits
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2969 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:21 am

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2970 Postby South Texas Storms » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:22 am

TheStormExpert wrote:Has the 12z UKMET come in yet?


Yeah here's the text of it:

HURRICANE IRMA ANALYSED POSITION : 18.9N 42.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 02.09.2017 0 18.9N 42.7W 961 78
0000UTC 03.09.2017 12 18.5N 45.6W 970 73
1200UTC 03.09.2017 24 17.8N 48.0W 970 69
0000UTC 04.09.2017 36 17.1N 50.2W 967 66
1200UTC 04.09.2017 48 16.9N 52.2W 965 71
0000UTC 05.09.2017 60 17.0N 54.3W 961 74
1200UTC 05.09.2017 72 17.5N 56.7W 957 73
0000UTC 06.09.2017 84 18.3N 58.9W 957 75
1200UTC 06.09.2017 96 19.4N 61.4W 957 76
0000UTC 07.09.2017 108 20.6N 64.0W 947 82
1200UTC 07.09.2017 120 21.7N 66.5W 945 81
0000UTC 08.09.2017 132 22.5N 68.7W 940 85
1200UTC 08.09.2017 144 23.1N 70.4W 944 83
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2971 Postby drezee » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:22 am

i frankly don't like the GFS trend. It really shows the trough has the ability to lift out before Irma gets there. Ridge will build back. Also could slow down the progression and lead to flooding.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2972 Postby weathaguyry » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:22 am

Very strong at 180 hrs

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2973 Postby Alyono » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:23 am

as I type that, the ridge starts to build back at 174 hours...
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2974 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:24 am

drezee wrote:i frankly don't like the GFS trend. It really shows the trough has the ability to lift out before Irma gets there. Ridge will build back. Also could slow down the progression and lead to flooding.

The worst part about that is it's faster than the Euro. If it slows down then there will be a HUGE shift west.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2975 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:25 am

Alyono wrote:as I type that, the ridge starts to build back at 174 hours...

Sounds like the northeast US possibly on this run
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2976 Postby weathaguyry » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:25 am

186

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2977 Postby storm4u » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:26 am

These runs are starting to make me uneasy here in mass
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2978 Postby weathaguyry » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:27 am

192

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2979 Postby xironman » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:27 am

898 at that latitude?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2980 Postby otowntiger » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:27 am

weathaguyry wrote:168

Image

Looking further east. That's good!
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