
ATL: IRMA - Models
Moderator: S2k Moderators
- weathaguyry
- Category 5
- Posts: 1272
- Age: 22
- Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 5:16 am
- Location: Long Island, NY
Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
168


0 likes
My posts are only my opinions and NOT official forecasts. For official forecasts, consult the National Hurricane Center or the National Weather Service.
Irene 11', Sandy 12', Fay 20’, Isaias 20’, Elsa 21’, Henri 21’, Ida 21’
Irene 11', Sandy 12', Fay 20’, Isaias 20’, Elsa 21’, Henri 21’, Ida 21’
Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
trough weaker at 168 hours. That COULD allow an escape and not draw it into the coast
1 likes
Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
AxaltaRacing24 wrote:TheStormExpert wrote:OTS this run?
Unlikely with a storm this far south this run.
The Bermuda ridge is also build back in @150
0 likes
Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
TheStormExpert wrote:Trough lifting out @162hrs. Headed straight for the NC/SC border?
I think further North towards the NC/VA border.
0 likes
- Hurricane Andrew
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1891
- Age: 26
- Joined: Sun May 23, 2010 2:53 pm
- Location: KS
Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
HAHAHAHAHA 897mb heading right for me HAHAHA...uh oh.
1 likes
The Enthusiast
NREMT-AEMT, WX nerd
Irene '11, Sandy '12, Irma '17 (SAR)
"Hard to think we were born to live this way..." -Wage War
Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Unless the ridge builds in big time, the steering flow will direct this away from the mid Atlantic. Check out the simulated IR on tropical tidbits
2 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 1756
- Age: 25
- Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:14 am
- Location: Jupiter, FL
- South Texas Storms
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 4231
- Joined: Thu Jun 24, 2010 12:28 am
- Location: Houston, TX
Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
TheStormExpert wrote:Has the 12z UKMET come in yet?
Yeah here's the text of it:
HURRICANE IRMA ANALYSED POSITION : 18.9N 42.7W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112017
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 02.09.2017 0 18.9N 42.7W 961 78
0000UTC 03.09.2017 12 18.5N 45.6W 970 73
1200UTC 03.09.2017 24 17.8N 48.0W 970 69
0000UTC 04.09.2017 36 17.1N 50.2W 967 66
1200UTC 04.09.2017 48 16.9N 52.2W 965 71
0000UTC 05.09.2017 60 17.0N 54.3W 961 74
1200UTC 05.09.2017 72 17.5N 56.7W 957 73
0000UTC 06.09.2017 84 18.3N 58.9W 957 75
1200UTC 06.09.2017 96 19.4N 61.4W 957 76
0000UTC 07.09.2017 108 20.6N 64.0W 947 82
1200UTC 07.09.2017 120 21.7N 66.5W 945 81
0000UTC 08.09.2017 132 22.5N 68.7W 940 85
1200UTC 08.09.2017 144 23.1N 70.4W 944 83
0 likes
Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
i frankly don't like the GFS trend. It really shows the trough has the ability to lift out before Irma gets there. Ridge will build back. Also could slow down the progression and lead to flooding.
0 likes
- weathaguyry
- Category 5
- Posts: 1272
- Age: 22
- Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 5:16 am
- Location: Long Island, NY
Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Very strong at 180 hrs


0 likes
My posts are only my opinions and NOT official forecasts. For official forecasts, consult the National Hurricane Center or the National Weather Service.
Irene 11', Sandy 12', Fay 20’, Isaias 20’, Elsa 21’, Henri 21’, Ida 21’
Irene 11', Sandy 12', Fay 20’, Isaias 20’, Elsa 21’, Henri 21’, Ida 21’
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 1756
- Age: 25
- Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:14 am
- Location: Jupiter, FL
Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
drezee wrote:i frankly don't like the GFS trend. It really shows the trough has the ability to lift out before Irma gets there. Ridge will build back. Also could slow down the progression and lead to flooding.
The worst part about that is it's faster than the Euro. If it slows down then there will be a HUGE shift west.
0 likes
- Hurricaneman
- Category 5
- Posts: 7368
- Age: 45
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
- Location: central florida
Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Alyono wrote:as I type that, the ridge starts to build back at 174 hours...
Sounds like the northeast US possibly on this run
1 likes
- weathaguyry
- Category 5
- Posts: 1272
- Age: 22
- Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 5:16 am
- Location: Long Island, NY
Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
186


0 likes
My posts are only my opinions and NOT official forecasts. For official forecasts, consult the National Hurricane Center or the National Weather Service.
Irene 11', Sandy 12', Fay 20’, Isaias 20’, Elsa 21’, Henri 21’, Ida 21’
Irene 11', Sandy 12', Fay 20’, Isaias 20’, Elsa 21’, Henri 21’, Ida 21’
- weathaguyry
- Category 5
- Posts: 1272
- Age: 22
- Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 5:16 am
- Location: Long Island, NY
Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
192


0 likes
My posts are only my opinions and NOT official forecasts. For official forecasts, consult the National Hurricane Center or the National Weather Service.
Irene 11', Sandy 12', Fay 20’, Isaias 20’, Elsa 21’, Henri 21’, Ida 21’
Irene 11', Sandy 12', Fay 20’, Isaias 20’, Elsa 21’, Henri 21’, Ida 21’
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 1922
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:06 pm
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: Google Adsense [Bot] and 5 guests