ATL: IRMA - Models
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- northjaxpro
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
5 p.m. advisory out. Irma moving at 265 degrees @ 15 mph. Now moving south of due west.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
[quote="GCANE"]Forecast track of the three best performing models so far for Irma: TVCN, NVGM, ECMO
I thought the TVCN was not actually a model per se but just a just an average of selected ensembles..
I thought the TVCN was not actually a model per se but just a just an average of selected ensembles..
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
GCANE wrote:Forecast track of the three best performing models so far for Irma: TVCN, NVGM, ECMO
Never thought I'd see the day.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
I would glad to see if UKMET could win this game.




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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Frank P wrote:GCANE wrote:Forecast track of the three best performing models so far for Irma: TVCN, NVGM, ECMO
I thought the TVCN was not actually a model per se but just a just an average of selected ensembles..
yah but you may want to add another one: UKMI/EGRI
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DO NOT use my posts for life and death decisions. For official information, please refer to products from your RSMC and national weather agency.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
had a look at the full EC compared to the GFS
The EC is slower because it is so far south. the GFS approaches the coast faster because its a bit farther north. Lets the trough draw it in
Not sure the EC will repeat this needle threading
The EC is slower because it is so far south. the GFS approaches the coast faster because its a bit farther north. Lets the trough draw it in
Not sure the EC will repeat this needle threading
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- northjaxpro
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
According to NHC projection in 48 hours, Irma is progged by them to be at 16.8N 53.0W. I will be interested by Monday afternoon just where Irma will be in relation to its forecast point by that time to see if the cyclone hits its point or will it miss it.
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NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Alyono wrote:had a look at the full EC compared to the GFS
The EC is slower because it is so far south. the GFS approaches the coast faster because its a bit farther north. Lets the trough draw it in
Not sure the EC will repeat this needle threading
Do you have any thoughts about landfall possibilities right now for the CONUS? Would you prefer the GFS and is ensembles or the Euro and it’s members at this point?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
This may be a bit better.
For three days out, the best performing models are
EE03 at 28 mile error.
EE34 at 6 mile error.
EE37 at 17 mile error.
Here are their forecast tracks.

For three days out, the best performing models are
EE03 at 28 mile error.
EE34 at 6 mile error.
EE37 at 17 mile error.
Here are their forecast tracks.

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
GCANE wrote:This may be a bit better.
For three days out, the best performing models are
EE03 at 28 mile error.
EE34 at 6 mile error.
EE37 at 17 mile error.
Here are their forecast tracks.
And at 240 hours,
EE03: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/79 ... 1200z.html
EE34: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/79 ... 1200z.html
EE37: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/79 ... 1200z.html
very consistent signal (spatially at least, not temporally) among the best performing EPS members.
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- SouthFLTropics
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
if this hits florida on this run we might as well just stop until next weds and see how the models look then
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- Bocadude85
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
I've got my glass of wine in hand, something is telling me that we are going to see a east shift with the GFS this run.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Be a helluva thing if this turns into a Fish Storm after all!
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
If you split the difference between the GFS and the Euro, you'd probably end up with something hitting Long Island
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Bad news or good news to the Caribbean??


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