ATL: IRMA - Models

[northjaxpro]

5 p.m. advisory out. Irma moving at 265 degrees @ 15 mph. Now moving south of due west.

[Frank P]

[quote="GCANE"]Forecast track of the three best performing models so far for Irma: TVCN, NVGM, ECMO

I thought the TVCN was not actually a model per se but just a just an average of selected ensembles..

[Evil Jeremy]

Forecast track of the three best performing models so far for Irma: TVCN, NVGM, ECMO

Never thought I'd see the day.

[Cunxi Huang]

I would glad to see if UKMET could win this game.

[Cunxi Huang]

Forecast track of the three best performing models so far for Irma: TVCN, NVGM, ECMO

I thought the TVCN was not actually a model per se but just a just an average of selected ensembles..

yah but you may want to add another one: UKMI/EGRI

[Alyono]

had a look at the full EC compared to the GFS

The EC is slower because it is so far south. the GFS approaches the coast faster because its a bit farther north. Lets the trough draw it in

Not sure the EC will repeat this needle threading

[northjaxpro]

According to NHC projection in 48 hours, Irma is progged by them to be at 16.8N 53.0W. I will be interested by Monday afternoon just where Irma will be in relation to its forecast point by that time to see if the cyclone hits its point or will it miss it.

[txwatcher91]

had a look at the full EC compared to the GFS

The EC is slower because it is so far south. the GFS approaches the coast faster because its a bit farther north. Lets the trough draw it in

Not sure the EC will repeat this needle threading

Do you have any thoughts about landfall possibilities right now for the CONUS? Would you prefer the GFS and is ensembles or the Euro and it’s members at this point?

[GCANE]

This may be a bit better.
For three days out, the best performing models are
EE03 at 28 mile error.
EE34 at 6 mile error.
EE37 at 17 mile error.

Here are their forecast tracks.

[forecasterjack]

This may be a bit better.
For three days out, the best performing models are
EE03 at 28 mile error.
EE34 at 6 mile error.
EE37 at 17 mile error.

Here are their forecast tracks.

And at 240 hours,
EE03: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/79 ... 1200z.html
EE34: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/79 ... 1200z.html
EE37: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/79 ... 1200z.html

very consistent signal (spatially at least, not temporally) among the best performing EPS members.

[SouthFLTropics]

Happy Hour GFS is underway...Drink up everyone!!! (as long as your over 21)

[jlauderdal]

Happy Hour GFS is underway...Drink up everyone!!!

if this hits florida on this run we might as well just stop until next weds and see how the models look then

[Bocadude85]

Happy Hour GFS is underway...Drink up everyone!!!

I've got my glass of wine in hand, something is telling me that we are going to see a east shift with the GFS this run.

[SouthFLTropics]

12 Euro at 24 hours vs. 18z GFS at 18 hours

[Michele B]

Happy Hour GFS is underway...Drink up everyone!!!

I've got my glass of wine in hand, something is telling me that we are going to see a east shift with the GFS this run.

Be a helluva thing if this turns into a Fish Storm after all!

[JPmia]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/904092705906728960

[SouthFLTropics]

12z Euro vs. 18z GFS

[weathaguyry]

If you split the difference between the GFS and the Euro, you'd probably end up with something hitting Long Island

[Bocadude85]

Through 60 hours the 18Z is just a touch southwest of the 12z

[AubreyStorm]

Bad news or good news to the Caribbean??