ATL: IRMA - Models

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3581 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Sep 02, 2017 8:34 pm

Interesting deep layer "bam" for 00z..
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3582 Postby AdamFirst » Sat Sep 02, 2017 8:39 pm

What are those gray lines in the SFWMD model plots? I know they're ensembles but which ones?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3583 Postby South Texas Storms » Sat Sep 02, 2017 8:42 pm

AdamFirst wrote:What are those gray lines in the SFWMD model plots? I know they're ensembles but which ones?


Those are the individual GFS ensemble members.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3584 Postby pcolaman » Sat Sep 02, 2017 8:42 pm

So future south and west , humm still trending west.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3585 Postby tgenius » Sat Sep 02, 2017 8:42 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Interesting deep layer "bam" for 00z..


Always thought bam models were worthless for deep tropic systems?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3586 Postby slamdaddy » Sat Sep 02, 2017 8:46 pm

Updated forecast for my location on the central north gulf coast has lows in the 50s for both Wednesday and Thursday night. Mighty hard front/trough gonna come through I reckon.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3587 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Sep 02, 2017 8:49 pm

tgenius wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:Interesting deep layer "bam" for 00z..


Always thought bam models were worthless for deep tropic systems?


No they only really work in the deep tropics.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3588 Postby gatorcane » Sat Sep 02, 2017 8:50 pm

The grey lines, i.e..the GFS ensembles have been shifting south every run since 00Z today. I was comparing the 00Z to the 18Z. Even less than 120 hours, big difference.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3589 Postby SunnyThoughts » Sat Sep 02, 2017 8:53 pm

Just finished a 10 hour shift at work, sad to see models have shifted west. Was hoping they would trend more east and turn out to sea today. Ugh
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3590 Postby pcolaman » Sat Sep 02, 2017 8:54 pm

slamdaddy wrote:Updated forecast for my location on the central north gulf coast has lows in the 50s for both Wednesday and Thursday night. Mighty hard front/trough gonna come through I reckon.

Pensacola has lows in the mid 60s with Winds shifting from the ne on Thursday so high moving back in from the ne
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3591 Postby meriland29 » Sat Sep 02, 2017 8:55 pm

It's all about that darn trough that is expected to sit over the US in the coming days. Will it lift? Will it split? What will it do? Tis frustrating..but I guess ya know, what do you expect a week out from actuality?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3592 Postby Langinbang187 » Sat Sep 02, 2017 8:56 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
tgenius wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:Interesting deep layer "bam" for 00z..


Always thought bam models were worthless for deep tropic systems?


No they only really work in the deep tropics.


I honestly thought they were just entirely worthless all together when it came to the Tropics.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3593 Postby AdamFirst » Sat Sep 02, 2017 9:01 pm

gatorcane wrote:The grey lines, i.e..the GFS ensembles have been shifting south every run since 00Z today. I was comparing the 00Z to the 18Z. Even less than 120 hours, big difference.


Yep. All of the ensembles are to the right (or west) of the 18z operational run.

Note the trends, folks...
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3594 Postby gatorcane » Sat Sep 02, 2017 9:03 pm

Another trend I am seeing with the GFS and GEFS is that both are trending slower each run (the last 4 runs) out around a week from now. I also see a trend to build back in more ridging over the NE US in the wake of the trough. It definitely makes sense that a slower system or a system that loses more latitude than modeled over the next couple of days could end up more west, perhaps a good amount more than what the models are showing now.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3595 Postby Ken711 » Sat Sep 02, 2017 9:09 pm

I wonder if it slows enough missing the trough will it slow enough until the ridge building in breaks down some or could timing allow for another trough develop?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3596 Postby SFLcane » Sat Sep 02, 2017 9:12 pm

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3597 Postby AutoPenalti » Sat Sep 02, 2017 9:15 pm

AdamFirst wrote:
gatorcane wrote:The grey lines, i.e..the GFS ensembles have been shifting south every run since 00Z today. I was comparing the 00Z to the 18Z. Even less than 120 hours, big difference.


Yep. All of the ensembles are to the right (or west) of the 18z operational run.

Note the trends, folks...

You mean the left?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3598 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Sat Sep 02, 2017 9:17 pm

AdamFirst wrote:
gatorcane wrote:The grey lines, i.e..the GFS ensembles have been shifting south every run since 00Z today. I was comparing the 00Z to the 18Z. Even less than 120 hours, big difference.


Yep. All of the ensembles are to the right (or west) of the 18z operational run.

Note the trends, folks...

When you see it...

:lol:
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ATL: IRMA - Models

#3599 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sat Sep 02, 2017 9:18 pm

Image

The TVCN consensus model the NHC likes to stay close to is almost on top of the NHC forecast track though. Does that mean very little change will be made at the 11pm update?


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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3600 Postby SFLcane » Sat Sep 02, 2017 9:26 pm

Actually TCVN is a bit south of NHC track but probably no change.

Image
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