ATL: IRMA - Models

[Aric Dunn]

Interesting deep layer "bam" for 00z..

[AdamFirst]

What are those gray lines in the SFWMD model plots? I know they're ensembles but which ones?

[South Texas Storms]

What are those gray lines in the SFWMD model plots? I know they're ensembles but which ones?

Those are the individual GFS ensemble members.

[pcolaman]

So future south and west , humm still trending west.

[tgenius]

Interesting deep layer "bam" for 00z..

Always thought bam models were worthless for deep tropic systems?

[slamdaddy]

Updated forecast for my location on the central north gulf coast has lows in the 50s for both Wednesday and Thursday night. Mighty hard front/trough gonna come through I reckon.

[Aric Dunn]

Interesting deep layer "bam" for 00z..

Always thought bam models were worthless for deep tropic systems?

No they only really work in the deep tropics.

[gatorcane]

The grey lines, i.e..the GFS ensembles have been shifting south every run since 00Z today. I was comparing the 00Z to the 18Z. Even less than 120 hours, big difference.

[SunnyThoughts]

Just finished a 10 hour shift at work, sad to see models have shifted west. Was hoping they would trend more east and turn out to sea today. Ugh

[pcolaman]

Updated forecast for my location on the central north gulf coast has lows in the 50s for both Wednesday and Thursday night. Mighty hard front/trough gonna come through I reckon.

Pensacola has lows in the mid 60s with Winds shifting from the ne on Thursday so high moving back in from the ne

[meriland29]

It's all about that darn trough that is expected to sit over the US in the coming days. Will it lift? Will it split? What will it do? Tis frustrating..but I guess ya know, what do you expect a week out from actuality?

[Langinbang187]

Interesting deep layer "bam" for 00z..

Always thought bam models were worthless for deep tropic systems?

No they only really work in the deep tropics.

I honestly thought they were just entirely worthless all together when it came to the Tropics.

[AdamFirst]

The grey lines, i.e..the GFS ensembles have been shifting south every run since 00Z today. I was comparing the 00Z to the 18Z. Even less than 120 hours, big difference.

Yep. All of the ensembles are to the right (or west) of the 18z operational run.

Note the trends, folks...

[gatorcane]

Another trend I am seeing with the GFS and GEFS is that both are trending slower each run (the last 4 runs) out around a week from now. I also see a trend to build back in more ridging over the NE US in the wake of the trough. It definitely makes sense that a slower system or a system that loses more latitude than modeled over the next couple of days could end up more west, perhaps a good amount more than what the models are showing now.

[Ken711]

I wonder if it slows enough missing the trough will it slow enough until the ridge building in breaks down some or could timing allow for another trough develop?

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/splillo/status/904150774485266432

[AutoPenalti]

The grey lines, i.e..the GFS ensembles have been shifting south every run since 00Z today. I was comparing the 00Z to the 18Z. Even less than 120 hours, big difference.

Yep. All of the ensembles are to the right (or west) of the 18z operational run.

Note the trends, folks...

You mean the left?

[Hurricane Andrew]

The grey lines, i.e..the GFS ensembles have been shifting south every run since 00Z today. I was comparing the 00Z to the 18Z. Even less than 120 hours, big difference.

Yep. All of the ensembles are to the right (or west) of the 18z operational run.

Note the trends, folks...

When you see it...

[WeatherEmperor]

The TVCN consensus model the NHC likes to stay close to is almost on top of the NHC forecast track though. Does that mean very little change will be made at the 11pm update?


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

[SFLcane]

Actually TCVN is a bit south of NHC track but probably no change.