ATL: IRMA - Models
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
A few thoughts based on the most recent data.
1. Pay close attention to the ensembles. They’ll give you a far better idea of the possibilities on the table and are extremely useful.
2. The UK did extremely well with Hurricane Matthew last year. Keep an eye on it.
3. The evolution of our trough and ridge placement, orientation, and strength will be the key driving forces and difficult to determine with any confidence for several more days.
4. CMC is not a good model for TC tracks, at least this year in the Atlantic it was terrible with Harvey.
5. I prefer a blend of the EPS and GEFS, then averaging those two together for a rough idea of possible impact areas at this range. That method worked superb last year with Matthew and I was able to let my community of around 14k know to prepare well in advance, and they were ready. It’s still a bit early for this one but the ensembles give a great idea and I prefer them over OP runs outside of 120 hours.
6. Do not believe the GFS pressure readings. It has a tendency to overdo it quite a bit. It does show, however, that rapid deepening and a very favorable environment lies ahead.
1. Pay close attention to the ensembles. They’ll give you a far better idea of the possibilities on the table and are extremely useful.
2. The UK did extremely well with Hurricane Matthew last year. Keep an eye on it.
3. The evolution of our trough and ridge placement, orientation, and strength will be the key driving forces and difficult to determine with any confidence for several more days.
4. CMC is not a good model for TC tracks, at least this year in the Atlantic it was terrible with Harvey.
5. I prefer a blend of the EPS and GEFS, then averaging those two together for a rough idea of possible impact areas at this range. That method worked superb last year with Matthew and I was able to let my community of around 14k know to prepare well in advance, and they were ready. It’s still a bit early for this one but the ensembles give a great idea and I prefer them over OP runs outside of 120 hours.
6. Do not believe the GFS pressure readings. It has a tendency to overdo it quite a bit. It does show, however, that rapid deepening and a very favorable environment lies ahead.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Last edited by SouthFLTropics on Sun Sep 03, 2017 12:10 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Normally I don't stay up for the EURO, but since it's Saturday night, what the hell
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
otowntiger wrote:. Thanks! That helps me now see what everyone is talking about.xtyphooncyclonex wrote:otowntiger wrote:All this talk of the south and west shifts- I don't see it. I feel like I must have missed an interim where the models were much more east than they are now? The GFS and European have not shifted much that I can see. I guess I need to have it pointed out to me.
GFS and others went for an OTS recurve not to long ago, then shifted to New York/New England. ECMWF went from Key West to OTS but it's uncertain for them, yet for the most part models have shifted SW.
What's even worse is that instead of going to the NE or OTS, the 00z GFS run shows Irma brushing FL, GA whilst ravaging the Bahamas as a strong category 5 before making landfall over Raleigh, NC
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
southfltropics,
Is that the latest GFS Ensembles if so they appear to have moved east of FLA
I
Is that the latest GFS Ensembles if so they appear to have moved east of FLA
I
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Miami Storm Tracker wrote:southfltropics,
Is that the latest GFS Ensembles if so they appear to have moved east of FLA
I
That is the latest ensembles and the 00z has moved SW of the 18z. There are some members going through the Keys now.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Miami Storm Tracker wrote:southfltropics,
Is that the latest GFS Ensembles if so they appear to have moved east of FLA
I
Verbatim I count 5 right there that would effect the peninsula
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Something to keep in mind. Even if this misses the coast of Florida, the tightening pressure gradient due to the HP and the growing size of the storm will cause TS force winds across a HUGE area, See here for massive wind field.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
It seems like the HWRF runs every 15 minutes lol
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
ConvergenceZone wrote:Normally I don't stay up for the EURO, but since it's Saturday night, what the hell
Its my b-day and instead of going out. im home annoying my GF with science stuff.

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Aric Dunn wrote:ConvergenceZone wrote:Normally I don't stay up for the EURO, but since it's Saturday night, what the hell
Its my b-day and instead of going out. im home annoying my GF with science stuff.
Happy Birthday!!! S2K is like a drug. It's hard to step away when we have action like this in the Atlantic.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
SouthFLTropics wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:ConvergenceZone wrote:Normally I don't stay up for the EURO, but since it's Saturday night, what the hell
Its my b-day and instead of going out. im home annoying my GF with science stuff.
Happy Birthday!!! S2K is like a drug. It's hard to step away when we have action like this in the Atlantic.
its just weather and science for me.. S2k is a great outlet ... hence why I "....." everything.. that me thinking..

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
By a miracle it missed St. Martin and Anguilla. Regardless they are getting slammed with the southern core of the storm.


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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=500
HWRF still showing some pink on the simulated IR. Looks like it will show again that it will be a solid Cat 4 for a while if so.
HWRF still showing some pink on the simulated IR. Looks like it will show again that it will be a solid Cat 4 for a while if so.
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