ATL: IRMA - Models

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3781 Postby txwatcher91 » Sun Sep 03, 2017 12:06 am

A few thoughts based on the most recent data.

1. Pay close attention to the ensembles. They’ll give you a far better idea of the possibilities on the table and are extremely useful.
2. The UK did extremely well with Hurricane Matthew last year. Keep an eye on it.
3. The evolution of our trough and ridge placement, orientation, and strength will be the key driving forces and difficult to determine with any confidence for several more days.
4. CMC is not a good model for TC tracks, at least this year in the Atlantic it was terrible with Harvey.
5. I prefer a blend of the EPS and GEFS, then averaging those two together for a rough idea of possible impact areas at this range. That method worked superb last year with Matthew and I was able to let my community of around 14k know to prepare well in advance, and they were ready. It’s still a bit early for this one but the ensembles give a great idea and I prefer them over OP runs outside of 120 hours.
6. Do not believe the GFS pressure readings. It has a tendency to overdo it quite a bit. It does show, however, that rapid deepening and a very favorable environment lies ahead.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3782 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sun Sep 03, 2017 12:08 am

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Last edited by SouthFLTropics on Sun Sep 03, 2017 12:10 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3783 Postby ConvergenceZone » Sun Sep 03, 2017 12:09 am

Normally I don't stay up for the EURO, but since it's Saturday night, what the hell
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3784 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sun Sep 03, 2017 12:10 am

otowntiger wrote:
xtyphooncyclonex wrote:
otowntiger wrote:All this talk of the south and west shifts- I don't see it. I feel like I must have missed an interim where the models were much more east than they are now? The GFS and European have not shifted much that I can see. I guess I need to have it pointed out to me.

GFS and others went for an OTS recurve not to long ago, then shifted to New York/New England. ECMWF went from Key West to OTS but it's uncertain for them, yet for the most part models have shifted SW.
. Thanks! That helps me now see what everyone is talking about.

What's even worse is that instead of going to the NE or OTS, the 00z GFS run shows Irma brushing FL, GA whilst ravaging the Bahamas as a strong category 5 before making landfall over Raleigh, NC
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3785 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sun Sep 03, 2017 12:11 am

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3786 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Sun Sep 03, 2017 12:11 am

FL-NC is the main focus
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3787 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Sun Sep 03, 2017 12:12 am

southfltropics,

Is that the latest GFS Ensembles if so they appear to have moved east of FLA

I
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3788 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sun Sep 03, 2017 12:13 am

Faster and at the same latitude as 18z...Approaching the islands

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3789 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sun Sep 03, 2017 12:14 am

Miami Storm Tracker wrote:southfltropics,

Is that the latest GFS Ensembles if so they appear to have moved east of FLA

I


That is the latest ensembles and the 00z has moved SW of the 18z. There are some members going through the Keys now.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3790 Postby toad strangler » Sun Sep 03, 2017 12:15 am

Miami Storm Tracker wrote:southfltropics,

Is that the latest GFS Ensembles if so they appear to have moved east of FLA

I



Verbatim I count 5 right there that would effect the peninsula
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3791 Postby txwatcher91 » Sun Sep 03, 2017 12:15 am

Something to keep in mind. Even if this misses the coast of Florida, the tightening pressure gradient due to the HP and the growing size of the storm will cause TS force winds across a HUGE area, See here for massive wind field.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3792 Postby toad strangler » Sun Sep 03, 2017 12:15 am

It seems like the HWRF runs every 15 minutes lol
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3793 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sun Sep 03, 2017 12:17 am

HWRF now SW at 81 hours. Looks to be heading right for Saint Martin.

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3794 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Sep 03, 2017 12:18 am

ConvergenceZone wrote:Normally I don't stay up for the EURO, but since it's Saturday night, what the hell


Its my b-day and instead of going out. im home annoying my GF with science stuff. :)
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3795 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sun Sep 03, 2017 12:19 am

Aric Dunn wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:Normally I don't stay up for the EURO, but since it's Saturday night, what the hell


Its my b-day and instead of going out. im home annoying my GF with science stuff. :)


Happy Birthday!!! S2K is like a drug. It's hard to step away when we have action like this in the Atlantic.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3796 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Sep 03, 2017 12:19 am

SouthFLTropics wrote:Image


thats a hige shift...
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3797 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Sep 03, 2017 12:21 am

SouthFLTropics wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:Normally I don't stay up for the EURO, but since it's Saturday night, what the hell


Its my b-day and instead of going out. im home annoying my GF with science stuff. :)


Happy Birthday!!! S2K is like a drug. It's hard to step away when we have action like this in the Atlantic.

its just weather and science for me.. S2k is a great outlet ... hence why I "....." everything.. that me thinking.. :)
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3798 Postby Bocadude85 » Sun Sep 03, 2017 12:21 am

Barbuda gets hammered in the 0z HWRF run.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3799 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sun Sep 03, 2017 12:22 am

By a miracle it missed St. Martin and Anguilla. Regardless they are getting slammed with the southern core of the storm.

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3800 Postby Steve » Sun Sep 03, 2017 12:23 am

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=500

HWRF still showing some pink on the simulated IR. Looks like it will show again that it will be a solid Cat 4 for a while if so.
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