ATL: IRMA - Models

[meriland29]

It is interesting cause, the 00z almost seems like total 'refresh' of the models. I have found that the 00z's tend to start, and end trends, it is scary that is continuing this trend in tremendous way, the westward shifts are very worrisome.

[AxaltaRacing24]

The plan was not to stay up for the ERUO tonight this morning or what ever time it is, but I am still here so lets see what it does.

I am in the exact same predicament. It's impossible to go to bed when the 00z int is right in your face.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

[Steve]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... s=0&ypos=0

GEFS 00z comes in a hair south of GFS Operational. SC/NC.

HWRF ends up at 126 hours located at 21.8N 71.8W at 933mb.

[MWatkins]

The tend early in the new model cycle is not encouraging. GFS, CMC and UKMET are all SW of their 5-7 day positions vs. previous runs.

Small differences in storm size and the steering pattern will continue to evolve as we get into next week. Almost pointless to look at the deterministic results of where/when/if it hits in the long range, but if these shifts continue, the threat to some place in the SE US goes up.

Our approach is follow the plan, make a bunch of ice, make sure the generator works, then watch and wait.

Mike

miss your posts MIKE !!!

Been reading yours for years, Aric! It seems hard to convey that agreement is not = to confidence.

[meriland29]

Euro is read to roll. Think this one will really highlight what the trough and ridge is expected to do.

[AxaltaRacing24]

00z int

[AxaltaRacing24]

24 hrs out

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2017090300&fh=-66&xpos=0&ypos=0

GEFS 00z comes in a hair south of GFS Operational. SC/NC.

Yeah and looks a weakening storm.

[TheDreamTraveler]

I'm really interested to see if the Euro tries to go with an OTS solution again like its 12z run or if it goes back to making a landfall on the coast...or worse, striking the islands along the way and then hitting somewhere on the east coast :<

[wxmann_91]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2017090300&fh=-66&xpos=0&ypos=0

GEFS 00z comes in a hair south of GFS Operational. SC/NC.

Yeah and looks a weakening storm.

Probably just the spread increasing amongst the ensemble members (so that the averaged isobars become more diffuse).

[Steve]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2017090300&fh=-66&xpos=0&ypos=0

GEFS 00z comes in a hair south of GFS Operational. SC/NC.

Yeah and looks a weakening storm.

That's actually the spread of the ensembles and not the storm stretching out. NAVGEM out to 162 hours (in spurts). Looks like a landfall around Palm Beach County. Coming in at 950 so strong Cat 3 there. I don't know if I buy the run, but it makes enough sense.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=200

[AxaltaRacing24]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2017090300&fh=-66&xpos=0&ypos=0

GEFS 00z comes in a hair south of GFS Operational. SC/NC.

Yeah and looks a weakening storm.

That's actually the spread of the ensembles and not the storm stretching out. NAVGEM out to 160 hours (in spurts). Looks like a landfall around Palm Beach County. Coming in at 950 so strong Cat 3 there. I don't know if I buy the run, but it makes enough sense.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=200

Now we've got the JMA, CMC, and NAV trying to kill me. Nice lol

[AxaltaRacing24]

949mb and that's on the Nav!

[Steve]

Yeah and looks a weakening storm.

That's actually the spread of the ensembles and not the storm stretching out. NAVGEM out to 160 hours (in spurts). Looks like a landfall around Palm Beach County. Coming in at 950 so strong Cat 3 there. I don't know if I buy the run, but it makes enough sense.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=200

Now we've got the JMA, CMC, and NAV trying to kill me. Nice lol

Haha. It does. Landfall in 7.25 days from the run so now a little under 7 days until impact per NAVGEM.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=200

[PTrackerLA]

Add me to the staying up for the Euro when I need to catch up on sleep but won't crew Everything has been west tonight and that's concerning. What a change from 2 weeks ago right? It's surreal.

[Bocadude85]

Yeah and looks a weakening storm.

That's actually the spread of the ensembles and not the storm stretching out. NAVGEM out to 160 hours (in spurts). Looks like a landfall around Palm Beach County. Coming in at 950 so strong Cat 3 there. I don't know if I buy the run, but it makes enough sense.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=200

Now we've got the JMA, CMC, and NAV trying to kill me. Nice lol

It's good to be in the crosshairs this far out

[ConvergenceZone]

My prediction is that the Euro will still be out to sea, but a bit further west and closer to the coast.

[meriland29]

[AxaltaRacing24]

South shift from the last 00z