ATL: IRMA - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
meriland29
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 770
Joined: Thu Aug 03, 2017 11:05 am

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3861 Postby meriland29 » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:27 am

Aric Dunn wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:My prediction is that the Euro will still be out to sea, but a bit further west and closer to the coast.


ill just be difficult and say it goes into the gulf.. :P



Oh god, please no, not again... :sprinkler:
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
xtyphooncyclonex
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3888
Age: 24
Joined: Sat Dec 08, 2012 9:07 am
Location: Cebu City
Contact:
Contact xtyphooncyclonex

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3862 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:29 am

144 shift to the southwest.
Last edited by xtyphooncyclonex on Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:29 am, edited 1 time in total.
1 likes   
REMINDER: My opinions that I, or any other NON Pro-Met in this forum, are unofficial. Please do not take my opinions as an official forecast and warning. I am NOT a meteorologist. Following my forecasts blindly may lead to false alarm, danger and risk if official forecasts from agencies are ignored.
Top
WeatherEmperor
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4806
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:54 pm
Location: South Florida

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3863 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:29 am

Image


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
meriland29
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 770
Joined: Thu Aug 03, 2017 11:05 am

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3864 Postby meriland29 » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:29 am

reminiscent of CMC
0 likes   
Top
AxaltaRacing24
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1774
Age: 25
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:14 am
Location: Jupiter, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3865 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:29 am

Going for the gap AGAIN?
Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9628
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: Gulf of Gavin Newsom

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3866 Postby Steve » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:30 am

ECMWF coming in slightly farther SW than the 12Z run. I don't know if it will matter in the end. Obviously toggle previous run/next run.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=300
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10281
Age: 48
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3867 Postby SFLcane » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:30 am

SFL i see you...
0 likes   
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 43
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3868 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:30 am

WeatherEmperor wrote:Image


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk


this point in the 12z it was already turned and moving north.. never even made into the bahamas.
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
WHYB630
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 80
Joined: Sat Oct 01, 2016 2:19 am

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3869 Postby WHYB630 » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:31 am

next frame will show how strong the ridge will be, and determine she could hit the land or not.

Image
1 likes   
Top
txwatcher91
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1498
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2005 2:29 pm

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3870 Postby txwatcher91 » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:31 am

meriland29 wrote:reminiscent of CMC


Much different at the 500 level. Trough is much faster to lift out on the cmc. It’s actuwlly very close to the GFS now and I’d expect a close call for FL with a turn to the north towards NC or SC.
0 likes   
Top
WHYB630
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 80
Joined: Sat Oct 01, 2016 2:19 am

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3871 Postby WHYB630 » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:32 am

very similar with GFS @144
(but GFS's ridge is a bit stronger...i think)

Image
Image
Last edited by WHYB630 on Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:33 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4258
Age: 50
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3872 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:33 am

Let's see if it hits the brakes like the GFS did. My guess is that it will when the trough lifts out and the steering collapses for a short time.
0 likes   
Fourth Generation Florida Native

Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
Top
User avatar
ConvergenceZone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5239
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 1:40 am
Location: Northern California

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3873 Postby ConvergenceZone » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:33 am

Hmmm. So is it going to thread the needle out to sea again?
0 likes   
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 43
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3874 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:34 am

very weak trough no closed low over canada.. this is a SE us hit florida to nc ..
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
WeatherEmperor
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4806
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:54 pm
Location: South Florida

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3875 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:36 am

Image

Oh boy....


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4258
Age: 50
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3876 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:37 am

Well that will keep the media hopping here in South Florida...

Image
0 likes   
Fourth Generation Florida Native

Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
Top
AutoPenalti
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4091
Age: 29
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3877 Postby AutoPenalti » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:37 am

WeatherEmperor wrote:Image

Oh boy....


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk


Still heading WNW, look at the orientation.
2 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Top
User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10281
Age: 48
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3878 Postby SFLcane » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:37 am

Nearing SFL now... :eek:
0 likes   
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 43
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3879 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:37 am

yep right back to a florida landfall.. there is no missing it unless it stalls and goes straight north.. still many days out..
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
AxaltaRacing24
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1774
Age: 25
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:14 am
Location: Jupiter, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3880 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:37 am

Image
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2017”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 15 guests