ATL: IRMA - Models

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meriland29
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3861 Postby meriland29 » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:27 am

Aric Dunn wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:My prediction is that the Euro will still be out to sea, but a bit further west and closer to the coast.


ill just be difficult and say it goes into the gulf.. :P



Oh god, please no, not again... :sprinkler:
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3862 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:29 am

144 shift to the southwest.
Last edited by xtyphooncyclonex on Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:29 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3863 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:29 am

Image


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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3864 Postby meriland29 » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:29 am

reminiscent of CMC
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3865 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:29 am

Going for the gap AGAIN?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3866 Postby Steve » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:30 am

ECMWF coming in slightly farther SW than the 12Z run. I don't know if it will matter in the end. Obviously toggle previous run/next run.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=300
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3867 Postby SFLcane » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:30 am

SFL i see you...
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3868 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:30 am

WeatherEmperor wrote:Image


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this point in the 12z it was already turned and moving north.. never even made into the bahamas.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3869 Postby WHYB630 » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:31 am

next frame will show how strong the ridge will be, and determine she could hit the land or not.

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3870 Postby txwatcher91 » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:31 am

meriland29 wrote:reminiscent of CMC


Much different at the 500 level. Trough is much faster to lift out on the cmc. It’s actuwlly very close to the GFS now and I’d expect a close call for FL with a turn to the north towards NC or SC.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3871 Postby WHYB630 » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:32 am

very similar with GFS @144
(but GFS's ridge is a bit stronger...i think)

Image
Image
Last edited by WHYB630 on Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:33 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3872 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:33 am

Let's see if it hits the brakes like the GFS did. My guess is that it will when the trough lifts out and the steering collapses for a short time.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3873 Postby ConvergenceZone » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:33 am

Hmmm. So is it going to thread the needle out to sea again?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3874 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:34 am

very weak trough no closed low over canada.. this is a SE us hit florida to nc ..
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3875 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:36 am

Image

Oh boy....


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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3876 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:37 am

Well that will keep the media hopping here in South Florida...

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3877 Postby AutoPenalti » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:37 am

WeatherEmperor wrote:Image

Oh boy....


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk


Still heading WNW, look at the orientation.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3878 Postby SFLcane » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:37 am

Nearing SFL now... :eek:
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3879 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:37 am

yep right back to a florida landfall.. there is no missing it unless it stalls and goes straight north.. still many days out..
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3880 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:37 am

Image
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