ATL: IRMA - Models

[Aric Dunn]

central to florida to SC landfall on this one.. that ridge will stop it easily.

[fci]

That's actually the spread of the ensembles and not the storm stretching out. NAVGEM out to 160 hours (in spurts). Looks like a landfall around Palm Beach County. Coming in at 950 so strong Cat 3 there. I don't know if I buy the run, but it makes enough sense.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=200

Now we've got the JMA, CMC, and NAV trying to kill me. Nice lol

It's good to be in the crosshairs this far out

Truthfully, it is never good to be in the crosshairs.

[WHYB630]

again, no ridge vs have ridge @192hrs

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Stronger ridge, no where to go but landfall

[AxaltaRacing24]

Now we've got the JMA, CMC, and NAV trying to kill me. Nice lol

It's good to be in the crosshairs this far out

Truthfully, it is never good to be in the crosshairs.

At least this isn't 72 hrs out like Matthew.

[txwatcher91]

As expected this turned north, very similar track to Floyd. I’m still convinced we see a similar track I don’t think this will landfall in Florida but with it being such a large storm and passing very close to the coast, it wouldn’t take much to change that. Even so, tropical storm force winds would be felt all up and down the coast with a near miss due to the large wind field.

[Steve]

nice jump north.. no more though.. look at that ridge..

Agreed. Physically impossible with the setup. That would have to come in around South or North Carolina. The high building in from Canada will not let it out. FYI, this is inside of 8 days so if there are things that are going to take anybody a while to accomplish, I'd get on it soon.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=500

[Langinbang187]

Finally getting picked up by the trough.

No, it's riding up the ridge.

I mean it literally caught the trough and was directed into Carolina but okay.

[AtlanticWind]

Big shift to the west over the 12z run though,these trends are worrisome

[AxaltaRacing24]

Big shift to the west over the 12z run though,these trends are worrisome

Every model every day man...

[Steve]

Finally getting picked up by the trough.

No, it's riding up the ridge.

I mean it literally caught the trough and was directed into Carolina but okay.

No. It pulls out. Landfall between 192 and 216.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... =0&ypos=98

[boca]

Do the west shifts continue or does it level off because of the time frame?

[AxaltaRacing24]

This ain't getting out

[storm4u]

Actually a tad east at 192

Big shift to the west over the 12z run though,these trends are worrisome

[SouthFLTropics]

Got some GEPS Ensembles for everyone

[txwatcher91]

The Euro has been absolutely embarrassing with Irma thus far. This is the "king" god ...what an embarrassment.

Not really, it has done excellent in the 5 day range and is what the NHC is heavily relying on. If you’re talking about more than 5 days out, well all models will struggle at that range, especially with a complex setup like this.

[AxaltaRacing24]

The Euro has been absolutely embarrassing with Irma thus far. This is the "king" god ...what an embarrassment.

It hasn't been as bad as you think. Simple differences in the pattern result in major shifts far out. But it has stuck with that islands track for a long time.

[AutoPenalti]

The Euro has been absolutely embarrassing with Irma thus far. This is the "king" god ...what an embarrassment.

Are you kidding me? This is a forecast that is 7-8 days out.

[WHYB630]

heading NC with 920mb

[stormreader]

Turns N

This is not out to sea! Definitely in that "Irma window" I've been talking about between Cape Fear NC and the North Coast of Cuba. And, runs are trending south. I know it must seem unusual to have considered a S Fl landfall or even a Fl Straits passage as very possible, but it is looking more likely now. For now, I will stay with that same window, Cape Fear NC to the north coast of Cuba. I think that window will proved correct. But in the next day or so, I will refine that forecast, and make it more specific.