ATL: IRMA - Models

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Aric Dunn
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3901 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:44 am

central to florida to SC landfall on this one.. that ridge will stop it easily.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3902 Postby fci » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:44 am

Bocadude85 wrote:
AxaltaRacing24 wrote:
Steve wrote:
That's actually the spread of the ensembles and not the storm stretching out. NAVGEM out to 160 hours (in spurts). Looks like a landfall around Palm Beach County. Coming in at 950 so strong Cat 3 there. I don't know if I buy the run, but it makes enough sense.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=200

Now we've got the JMA, CMC, and NAV trying to kill me. Nice lol


It's good to be in the crosshairs this far out


Truthfully, it is never good to be in the crosshairs.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3903 Postby WHYB630 » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:44 am

again, no ridge vs have ridge @192hrs

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3904 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:45 am

Stronger ridge, no where to go but landfall
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3905 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:45 am

fci wrote:
Bocadude85 wrote:
AxaltaRacing24 wrote:Now we've got the JMA, CMC, and NAV trying to kill me. Nice lol


It's good to be in the crosshairs this far out


Truthfully, it is never good to be in the crosshairs.

At least this isn't 72 hrs out like Matthew.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3906 Postby txwatcher91 » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:45 am

As expected this turned north, very similar track to Floyd. I’m still convinced we see a similar track I don’t think this will landfall in Florida but with it being such a large storm and passing very close to the coast, it wouldn’t take much to change that. Even so, tropical storm force winds would be felt all up and down the coast with a near miss due to the large wind field.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3907 Postby Steve » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:45 am

Aric Dunn wrote:nice jump north.. no more though.. look at that ridge..


Agreed. Physically impossible with the setup. That would have to come in around South or North Carolina. The high building in from Canada will not let it out. FYI, this is inside of 8 days so if there are things that are going to take anybody a while to accomplish, I'd get on it soon.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=500
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3908 Postby Langinbang187 » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:46 am

AutoPenalti wrote:
Langinbang187 wrote:Finally getting picked up by the trough.

No, it's riding up the ridge.


I mean it literally caught the trough and was directed into Carolina but okay.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3909 Postby AtlanticWind » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:46 am

Big shift to the west over the 12z run though,these trends are worrisome
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3910 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:47 am

AtlanticWind wrote:Big shift to the west over the 12z run though,these trends are worrisome

Every model every day man...
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3911 Postby Steve » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:48 am

Langinbang187 wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:
Langinbang187 wrote:Finally getting picked up by the trough.

No, it's riding up the ridge.


I mean it literally caught the trough and was directed into Carolina but okay.


No. It pulls out. Landfall between 192 and 216.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... =0&ypos=98
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3912 Postby boca » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:49 am

Do the west shifts continue or does it level off because of the time frame?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3913 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:49 am

This ain't getting out
Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3914 Postby storm4u » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:49 am

Actually a tad east at 192


AtlanticWind wrote:Big shift to the west over the 12z run though,these trends are worrisome
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3915 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:49 am

Got some GEPS Ensembles for everyone

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3916 Postby txwatcher91 » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:50 am

Langinbang187 wrote:The Euro has been absolutely embarrassing with Irma thus far. This is the "king" god ...what an embarrassment.


Not really, it has done excellent in the 5 day range and is what the NHC is heavily relying on. If you’re talking about more than 5 days out, well all models will struggle at that range, especially with a complex setup like this.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3917 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:50 am

Langinbang187 wrote:The Euro has been absolutely embarrassing with Irma thus far. This is the "king" god ...what an embarrassment.

It hasn't been as bad as you think. Simple differences in the pattern result in major shifts far out. But it has stuck with that islands track for a long time.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3918 Postby AutoPenalti » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:50 am

Langinbang187 wrote:The Euro has been absolutely embarrassing with Irma thus far. This is the "king" god ...what an embarrassment.

Are you kidding me? This is a forecast that is 7-8 days out.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3919 Postby WHYB630 » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:50 am

heading NC with 920mb :double:
Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3920 Postby stormreader » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:50 am

AxaltaRacing24 wrote:Turns N
Image


This is not out to sea! Definitely in that "Irma window" I've been talking about between Cape Fear NC and the North Coast of Cuba. And, runs are trending south. I know it must seem unusual to have considered a S Fl landfall or even a Fl Straits passage as very possible, but it is looking more likely now. For now, I will stay with that same window, Cape Fear NC to the north coast of Cuba. I think that window will proved correct. But in the next day or so, I will refine that forecast, and make it more specific.
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