ATL: IRMA - Models

[AxaltaRacing24]

Actually a tad east at 192

Big shift to the west over the 12z run though,these trends are worrisome

You're comparing the 00z from yesterday. This is a HUGE difference from the OTS track 12 hrs ago.

[meriland29]

wow...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Actually a tad east at 192

Big shift to the west over the 12z run though,these trends are worrisome

But the thing is, 12z showed Irma go OTS whereas 00z shows a NC/SC landfall.

[Steve]

Actually a tad east at 192

Big shift to the west over the 12z run though,these trends are worrisome

It didn't matter though because we have at least partial landfall at 216 hours roughly in the same place the GFS has it. Everything else is farther south. GFS & Euro have Wilmington/Jacksonville at least close. I need to go crash, but I'm going to wait for 240 hours. Recall GFS brings it in, goes north then hooks west. We won't know what EC does much after landfall because they only show 10 days.

[stormreader]

Stronger ridge, no where to go but landfall

Of course. Once we saw just how close this would come to Fl, (a couple of days ago), was there any real outlook that could actually bring this out to sea?? I think not.

[storm4u]

Ugh just saw that lol

Actually a tad east at 192

Big shift to the west over the 12z run though,these trends are worrisome

You're comparing the 00z from yesterday. This is a HUGE difference from the OTS track 12 hrs ago.

[ConvergenceZone]

Well, goodnight everyone. We'll do it all again tomorrow

[stormreader]

Actually a tad east at 192

Big shift to the west over the 12z run though,these trends are worrisome

But the thing is, 12z showed Irma go OTS whereas 00z shows a NC/SC landfall.

Not going out to sea.

[WHYB630]

although the landfall location looks similar, the speed and upper patterns are very different between EC and GFS

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

I don't see a turn yet on the high-res ECMWF, very close call though:

lol there is nothing but ridging building in.. gulf maybe ?

That track in the run would surely cave in the canes core structure.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

240 inland.... Virginia

[SouthFLTropics]

Jacksonville/New Bern/Morehead City Landfall

[Bocadude85]

A 100 mile shift would bring Irma ashore in Florida...not a lot of room for error in a 7 day forecast..

[txwatcher91]

Two notes and then I’m off for the night.

1. Euro and GFS are nearly identical at hour 144 with trough and ridge placement/orientation. This is a big deal because that’s not far out and getting within range where we will see much smaller changes. The fact they’re so close now at this range tells me the pattern is being resolved gradually and chances for an East Coast hit are very high, imo.
2. Most likely track is, IMO, Floyd as the synoptic setup at days 5-6 favors a storm that comes close to FL but then gets lifted north into the weakness. Florida will be very close but I believe they’ll be spared a landfall. NC may not be as fortunate.

[birddogsc]

Jacksonville/New Bern/Morehead City Landfall

On through the tidewater...

[WeatherLovingDoc]

Oh my! Virginia just like the GFS yesterday (slightly more north if I recall it well enough).

[USTropics]

The Euro has been absolutely embarrassing with Irma thus far. This is the "king" god ...what an embarrassment.

Not really, it has done excellent in the 5 day range and is what the NHC is heavily relying on. If you’re talking about more than 5 days out, well all models will struggle at that range, especially with a complex setup like this.

This was expected in the long range, model verification is lower when we have this type of setup aloft. Typhoon Sanvu has started to transition to extra-tropical, and will begin to influence the baroclinicity of the mid-latitude jet stream. I give the operational runs just slightly more weight then their ensemble members. Past 120 hours, it's all about trends and where we start to see clusters.

[Steve]

240 inland.... Virginia

ECMWF Fades NE and weakens rapidly after landfall. It's in its own camp for that solution. So EC with the Cat 4 hit next Monday if it stands. Night y'all.

[Aric Dunn]

Again like I mentioned once this wsw motion started.. I knew the models would start to swing more westerly.. now just watch if this drops even a little south of forecast it will cause a slow down resulting in the ridge building and more westerly. the Florida straights and gulf are still not out of the woods.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Either a Donna or a Floyd.... unless the ridge's rebuilds earlier