ATL: IRMA - Models

[adam0983]

If these models verify what should south Florida expect especially palm beach country south. The trend shows more of a Florida impact. Reminds me of hurricane Joaquin that turned sway just before Florida but destroyed the Bahamas as a monster cat 4/5.

[SouthFLTropics]

48 Hours

[sma10]

48hr Euro very similar if only just the tiniest bit faster. Most notable: Aric's BOC system appears more developed

[SouthFLTropics]

HMON run complete...What are you doing with that intensity HMON??? Put down the Walter White crystal blue and walk away...

[Maineman]

Gust speeds ECMWF 12z - time steps coming in constantly, other parameters via menu. For zoom out (-), for zoom in click, for Pan click into edges. Time zone/units with gear icon Top right.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/546-w-263-n/gusts-3h-mph/20170904-0900z.html

[PTPatrick]

Ha this is nuts, 200 plus pages on a model thread of an Atlantic hurricane...never seen that before. Irma definately has our attention.

I'll just say this. Until it gets closer to the islands it's probably early to get mired down in windshield wiping. We all do this every storm...it's south, it's north, it's west. It's fun to watch but Miamia and western Bahamas aren't even in the 5 day cone yet so stuff will still change. I am still concerned about the prospect of it missing the trough and driving more west. But agreed Carolinas look bad right now. Just have many storms where consensus showed Carolinas 5 days out only for it to end up in the gulf or fish. So I'll be watching closely but probably not losing sleep until it gets to Antigua latitude.

Also, 880s mb pressure north of Miami, I don't buy. Period. I suppose it's not "impossible" but I am betting it's a large storm so pressure can get really low and winds not be as crazy. Either way a large 920 storm will be strong and cause tons of damage.

[otowntiger]

48hr Euro very similar if only just the tiniest bit faster. Most notable: Aric's BOC system appears more developed

I'm not seeing anything in the BOC?

[Kohlecane]

Wonderful I'm in Beaufort, SC just south of Charleston this is beginning to give me a Matthew type of feeling for SAV north to VA. Any body with some MET knowledge wanna shoot some stats on probabilities for SC coast with current model trends

[CrazyTropics]

12 z out

[Alyono]

EC steamrolls the Leeward and Virgin Islands

[otowntiger]

Ha this is nuts, 180 plus pages on a model thread of an Atlantic hurricane...never seen that before.

I'll just say this. Until it gets closer to the islands it's probably early to get mired down in windshield wiping. We all do this every storm...it's south, it's north, it's west. It's fun to watch but Bahamas aren't even in the 5 day come yet so stuff will still change. I am still concerned about the prospect of it missing the trough and driving more west. But agreed Carolinas look bad right now. Just have many storms where consensus showed Carolinas 5 days out only for it to end up in the gulf or fish. So I'll be watching closely but probably not losing sleep until it gets to Antigua latitude.

Very reasonable thinking - I agree.

[Aric Dunn]

EURO slightly south again.. looks like it might go over PR or very very close

[gatorcane]

EC steamrolls the Leeward and Virgin Islands

Yep, slight south shift. Not good...

[SouthFLTropics]

Looks to be a big shift west in the GEPS Ensembles from 00z... TREND

[CrazyTropics]

More of a SC/NC border thing, not further south. Modles have it going through middle of NC at 196 hrs. Too far out but the trend is between SC and NC. Would say both bc the storm will be about the size of both states so wont matter where it hits. The effects are going to be far reaching

[Frank P]

you can see the GOM image off to the left, off the MX coast

[SouthFLTropics]

72 Hours

[forecasterjack]

12Z ECMWF perhaps a tad NE of 0Z but still a very, very close flyby of the islands. One wobble S and some of those folks are going to have a rough time. ECMWF simrad: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/60 ... 0300z.html other parameters via menu, click map to zoom in, click near edge to pan. (-) zooms ya out if you want enjoy!

[stormreader]

EC steamrolls the Leeward and Virgin Islands

Yep, slight south shift. Not good...

Critical forecast now for Virgin Islands and probably Puerto Rico as well. They've entered into the 72 hr landfall window as foretold by this Euro run. Speculative phase for them is basically over. Time to complete preparations for a major hurricane strike.

[JWWS]

12z GEFS Ensembles are spread out even more to cover potential Eastern Gulf/Florida panhandle solutions to Mid-Atlantic solutions.

They are also a lot more tightly packed than the 06z GEFS members were. Basically NC to Florida like most have been saying on here. It is trending away from the NE. Please trend back east models, please.

New to the board and not an expert, but after seeing the devastation and loss of life and property these monster storms cause, it's not appropriate for anybody to urge or "root" for it to hit anywhere other than out to sea. I'm from the NE and I don't want it to hit here, but you won't see me going on the board and pleading for a more SW course.