ATL: IRMA - Models
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
If these models verify what should south Florida expect especially palm beach country south. The trend shows more of a Florida impact. Reminds me of hurricane Joaquin that turned sway just before Florida but destroyed the Bahamas as a monster cat 4/5.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
48hr Euro very similar if only just the tiniest bit faster. Most notable: Aric's BOC system appears more developed
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
HMON run complete...What are you doing with that intensity HMON??? Put down the Walter White crystal blue and walk away...


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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Gust speeds ECMWF 12z - time steps coming in constantly, other parameters via menu. For zoom out (-), for zoom in click, for Pan click into edges. Time zone/units with gear icon Top right.
https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/546-w-263-n/gusts-3h-mph/20170904-0900z.html
https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/546-w-263-n/gusts-3h-mph/20170904-0900z.html
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Ha this is nuts, 200 plus pages on a model thread of an Atlantic hurricane...never seen that before. Irma definately has our attention.
I'll just say this. Until it gets closer to the islands it's probably early to get mired down in windshield wiping. We all do this every storm...it's south, it's north, it's west. It's fun to watch but Miamia and western Bahamas aren't even in the 5 day cone yet so stuff will still change. I am still concerned about the prospect of it missing the trough and driving more west. But agreed Carolinas look bad right now. Just have many storms where consensus showed Carolinas 5 days out only for it to end up in the gulf or fish. So I'll be watching closely but probably not losing sleep until it gets to Antigua latitude.
Also, 880s mb pressure north of Miami, I don't buy. Period. I suppose it's not "impossible" but I am betting it's a large storm so pressure can get really low and winds not be as crazy. Either way a large 920 storm will be strong and cause tons of damage.
I'll just say this. Until it gets closer to the islands it's probably early to get mired down in windshield wiping. We all do this every storm...it's south, it's north, it's west. It's fun to watch but Miamia and western Bahamas aren't even in the 5 day cone yet so stuff will still change. I am still concerned about the prospect of it missing the trough and driving more west. But agreed Carolinas look bad right now. Just have many storms where consensus showed Carolinas 5 days out only for it to end up in the gulf or fish. So I'll be watching closely but probably not losing sleep until it gets to Antigua latitude.
Also, 880s mb pressure north of Miami, I don't buy. Period. I suppose it's not "impossible" but I am betting it's a large storm so pressure can get really low and winds not be as crazy. Either way a large 920 storm will be strong and cause tons of damage.
Last edited by PTPatrick on Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:13 pm, edited 4 times in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
sma10 wrote:48hr Euro very similar if only just the tiniest bit faster. Most notable: Aric's BOC system appears more developed
I'm not seeing anything in the BOC?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Wonderful I'm in Beaufort, SC just south of Charleston this is beginning to give me a Matthew type of feeling for SAV north to VA. Any body with some MET knowledge wanna shoot some stats on probabilities for SC coast with current model trends
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Once I see the REDS and GREENS Converge on a Base Velocity. ... I'm There!!
This is NOT an Official Forecast....Just my Opinion. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
HIGHLIGHTS : '13 El Reno Tornado : 2013 Storm Chaser Tour, Joaquin; SC flood event, Matthew '16, Lowcountry Snow storm Jan '18
This is NOT an Official Forecast....Just my Opinion. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
HIGHLIGHTS : '13 El Reno Tornado : 2013 Storm Chaser Tour, Joaquin; SC flood event, Matthew '16, Lowcountry Snow storm Jan '18
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
PTPatrick wrote:Ha this is nuts, 180 plus pages on a model thread of an Atlantic hurricane...never seen that before.
I'll just say this. Until it gets closer to the islands it's probably early to get mired down in windshield wiping. We all do this every storm...it's south, it's north, it's west. It's fun to watch but Bahamas aren't even in the 5 day come yet so stuff will still change. I am still concerned about the prospect of it missing the trough and driving more west. But agreed Carolinas look bad right now. Just have many storms where consensus showed Carolinas 5 days out only for it to end up in the gulf or fish. So I'll be watching closely but probably not losing sleep until it gets to Antigua latitude.
Very reasonable thinking - I agree.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
EURO slightly south again.. looks like it might go over PR or very very close
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Alyono wrote:EC steamrolls the Leeward and Virgin Islands
Yep, slight south shift. Not good...

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
More of a SC/NC border thing, not further south. Modles have it going through middle of NC at 196 hrs. Too far out but the trend is between SC and NC. Would say both bc the storm will be about the size of both states so wont matter where it hits. The effects are going to be far reaching
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
12Z ECMWF perhaps a tad NE of 0Z but still a very, very close flyby of the islands. One wobble S and some of those folks are going to have a rough time. ECMWF simrad: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/60 ... 0300z.html other parameters via menu, click map to zoom in, click near edge to pan. (-) zooms ya out if you want
enjoy!

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
gatorcane wrote:Alyono wrote:EC steamrolls the Leeward and Virgin Islands
Yep, slight south shift. Not good...
Critical forecast now for Virgin Islands and probably Puerto Rico as well. They've entered into the 72 hr landfall window as foretold by this Euro run. Speculative phase for them is basically over. Time to complete preparations for a major hurricane strike.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
tarheelprogrammer wrote:
They are also a lot more tightly packed than the 06z GEFS members were. Basically NC to Florida like most have been saying on here. It is trending away from the NE. Please trend back east models, please.
New to the board and not an expert, but after seeing the devastation and loss of life and property these monster storms cause, it's not appropriate for anybody to urge or "root" for it to hit anywhere other than out to sea. I'm from the NE and I don't want it to hit here, but you won't see me going on the board and pleading for a more SW course.
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