ATL: IRMA - Models
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
I could be wrong but isn't that rainfall rate in Millimeters and not Inches?
100mm = 3.94"
100mm = 3.94"
1 likes
-
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 114
- Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2005 2:25 pm
- Location: Daytona Beach, Florida
- Contact:
Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Steve wrote:I could be wrong but isn't that rainfall rate in Millimeters and not Inches?
100mm = 3.94"
I sure hope so or we are gonna get 15 to 20inches of rain lol
1 likes
Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Digital-TC-Chaser wrote:
Precip rate along the SE coast,There will be horrific flooding if this plot verifies
A terrible plot that doesn't show units.
It looks like it's showing the 24 hour precip in millimeters.

3 likes
-
- Category 2
- Posts: 597
- Joined: Mon Jun 25, 2012 8:09 am
- Location: Fort Lauderdale, Florida
Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
RL3AO wrote:Digital-TC-Chaser wrote:
Precip rate along the SE coast,There will be horrific flooding if this plot verifies
A terrible plot that doesn't show units.
It looks like it's showing the 24 hour precip in millimeters.
Maybe i am just getting this confused but is it not thiesable to get 5 "of rain in 24hr period i mean Houston areas achieved 45/50 " in 5 days
0 likes
Once I see the REDS and GREENS Converge on a Base Velocity. ... I'm There!!
This is NOT an Official Forecast....Just my Opinion. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
HIGHLIGHTS : '13 El Reno Tornado : 2013 Storm Chaser Tour, Joaquin; SC flood event, Matthew '16, Lowcountry Snow storm Jan '18
This is NOT an Official Forecast....Just my Opinion. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
HIGHLIGHTS : '13 El Reno Tornado : 2013 Storm Chaser Tour, Joaquin; SC flood event, Matthew '16, Lowcountry Snow storm Jan '18
Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
18Z HWRF at 111 hours is located at 21.35N 72W
It's about 1/2 degree farther west than 12Z and heading WNW. It only goes out to 126.
Oh wait, 117 is out: 21.6N 72.9W
Definitely WNW. Pressure 918 on the blowup high resolution output:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 318&fh=117
NAVGEM finishes .3 degrees farther west than the 12Z run at 144 hours.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=300
It's about 1/2 degree farther west than 12Z and heading WNW. It only goes out to 126.
Oh wait, 117 is out: 21.6N 72.9W
Definitely WNW. Pressure 918 on the blowup high resolution output:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 318&fh=117
NAVGEM finishes .3 degrees farther west than the 12Z run at 144 hours.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=300
Last edited by Steve on Sun Sep 03, 2017 6:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Kohlecane wrote:RL3AO wrote:Digital-TC-Chaser wrote:
Precip rate along the SE coast,There will be horrific flooding if this plot verifies
A terrible plot that doesn't show units.
It looks like it's showing the 24 hour precip in millimeters.
Maybe i am just getting this confused but is it not thiesable to get 5 "of rain in 24hr period i mean Houston areas achieved 45/50 " in 5 days
Never mind i misread carry on ..sry lol
1 likes
Once I see the REDS and GREENS Converge on a Base Velocity. ... I'm There!!
This is NOT an Official Forecast....Just my Opinion. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
HIGHLIGHTS : '13 El Reno Tornado : 2013 Storm Chaser Tour, Joaquin; SC flood event, Matthew '16, Lowcountry Snow storm Jan '18
This is NOT an Official Forecast....Just my Opinion. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
HIGHLIGHTS : '13 El Reno Tornado : 2013 Storm Chaser Tour, Joaquin; SC flood event, Matthew '16, Lowcountry Snow storm Jan '18
Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Kohlecane wrote:Maybe i am just getting this confused but is it not thiesable to get 5 "of rain in 24hr period i mean Houston areas achieved 45/50 " in 5 days
Very feasible. I think some people thought it was showing storm totals in inches and not 24 hour totals in millimeters.
1 likes
- gatorcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 23692
- Age: 47
- Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
- Location: Boca Raton, FL
Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
18Z NAVGEM shifts slightly west but still offshore SE Florida as it moves north:


Last edited by gatorcane on Sun Sep 03, 2017 6:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
- meriland29
- Category 2
- Posts: 770
- Joined: Thu Aug 03, 2017 11:05 am
Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
I have a question regarding GFS and there intensity forecasts. Goes GFS tend to 'way' over or under do the intensity forecast of hurricanes (historically)?
1 likes
Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

Tracks tightened up on the 018z run,the 06 was a dogs breakfast.

Consensus
0 likes
Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
gatorcane wrote:18Z NAVGEM shifts slightly west but still offshore SE Florida as it moves north:
I've got it coming in WNW but gradually bending to NW. This would imply a Florida hit around Cocoa or so if it verified. Tough place to hit from the SE or ESE. Speed it up since it's not all filled in yet.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=200
0 likes
- Happy Pelican
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 119
- Joined: Tue Sep 29, 2015 11:12 pm
- Location: Pelican Island, Jersey Shore
Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
meriland29 wrote:I have a question regarding GFS and there intensity forecasts. Goes GFS tend to 'way' over or under do the intensity forecast of hurricanes (historically)?
I believe the GFS usually over intensifies storms and even more so since it was upgraded.
1 likes
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 2777
- Joined: Fri Aug 29, 2003 10:52 am
- Location: Biloxi Beach, Ms
- Contact:
Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
HWRF H126 still WNW hits the southern tip of Crooked Island 921 pressure
0 likes
- gatorcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 23692
- Age: 47
- Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
- Location: Boca Raton, FL
Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Yet another SW shift by the HWRF and stronger than 12Z. I feel like I am reliving Matthew watching the models shift west little by little each run



1 likes
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 316
- Age: 56
- Joined: Sun Sep 05, 2004 5:09 pm
- Location: NYC (formerly Homestead, FL)
Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Steve wrote:18Z NAVGEM is out to 72 hours and might be .1 or .2 degrees farther west and maybe a hair more concentric in presentation.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0318&fh=72
HWRF is also basically an update of 12Z at 105 hours which is how far it is out so far. Also a more circular eye and a few millibars stronger than 12z.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=300
what a bad angle for the Bahamas; looks like nearly every island gets some serious weather
1 likes
Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Gulf Coast: Opal '95 Georges '98 / So Fla: Katrina '05 Wilma '05 Irma '17
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Gulf Coast: Opal '95 Georges '98 / So Fla: Katrina '05 Wilma '05 Irma '17
Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
RL3AO wrote:Kohlecane wrote:Maybe i am just getting this confused but is it not thiesable to get 5 "of rain in 24hr period i mean Houston areas achieved 45/50 " in 5 days
Very feasible. I think some people thought it was showing storm totals in inches and not 24 hour totals in millimeters.
5mm of rain over 24hrs =light rain the plot does not show mm.
0 likes
Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Last edited by Steve on Sun Sep 03, 2017 7:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 25 guests