ATL: IRMA - Models

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Steve
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4641 Postby Steve » Sun Sep 03, 2017 6:40 pm

I could be wrong but isn't that rainfall rate in Millimeters and not Inches?

100mm = 3.94"
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4642 Postby Frank P » Sun Sep 03, 2017 6:42 pm

H111 passes just a hair south to T&C Islands.. pressure 915
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4643 Postby Stangfriik » Sun Sep 03, 2017 6:43 pm

Steve wrote:I could be wrong but isn't that rainfall rate in Millimeters and not Inches?

100mm = 3.94"


I sure hope so or we are gonna get 15 to 20inches of rain lol
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4644 Postby RL3AO » Sun Sep 03, 2017 6:44 pm

Digital-TC-Chaser wrote:Image
Precip rate along the SE coast,There will be horrific flooding if this plot verifies


A terrible plot that doesn't show units.

It looks like it's showing the 24 hour precip in millimeters.

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4645 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Sun Sep 03, 2017 6:46 pm

No comment.

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4646 Postby Kohlecane » Sun Sep 03, 2017 6:48 pm

RL3AO wrote:
Digital-TC-Chaser wrote:Image
Precip rate along the SE coast,There will be horrific flooding if this plot verifies


A terrible plot that doesn't show units.

It looks like it's showing the 24 hour precip in millimeters.

Image

Maybe i am just getting this confused but is it not thiesable to get 5 "of rain in 24hr period i mean Houston areas achieved 45/50 " in 5 days
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4647 Postby Steve » Sun Sep 03, 2017 6:48 pm

18Z HWRF at 111 hours is located at 21.35N 72W

It's about 1/2 degree farther west than 12Z and heading WNW. It only goes out to 126.

Oh wait, 117 is out: 21.6N 72.9W

Definitely WNW. Pressure 918 on the blowup high resolution output:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 318&fh=117

NAVGEM finishes .3 degrees farther west than the 12Z run at 144 hours.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=300
Last edited by Steve on Sun Sep 03, 2017 6:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4648 Postby SFLcane » Sun Sep 03, 2017 6:49 pm

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4649 Postby Kohlecane » Sun Sep 03, 2017 6:49 pm

Kohlecane wrote:
RL3AO wrote:
Digital-TC-Chaser wrote:Image
Precip rate along the SE coast,There will be horrific flooding if this plot verifies


A terrible plot that doesn't show units.

It looks like it's showing the 24 hour precip in millimeters.

Image

Maybe i am just getting this confused but is it not thiesable to get 5 "of rain in 24hr period i mean Houston areas achieved 45/50 " in 5 days

Never mind i misread carry on ..sry lol
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This is NOT an Official Forecast....Just my Opinion. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4650 Postby RL3AO » Sun Sep 03, 2017 6:49 pm

Kohlecane wrote:Maybe i am just getting this confused but is it not thiesable to get 5 "of rain in 24hr period i mean Houston areas achieved 45/50 " in 5 days


Very feasible. I think some people thought it was showing storm totals in inches and not 24 hour totals in millimeters.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4651 Postby gatorcane » Sun Sep 03, 2017 6:50 pm

18Z NAVGEM shifts slightly west but still offshore SE Florida as it moves north:

Image
Last edited by gatorcane on Sun Sep 03, 2017 6:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4652 Postby meriland29 » Sun Sep 03, 2017 6:50 pm

I have a question regarding GFS and there intensity forecasts. Goes GFS tend to 'way' over or under do the intensity forecast of hurricanes (historically)?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4653 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sun Sep 03, 2017 6:52 pm

Image
Tracks tightened up on the 018z run,the 06 was a dogs breakfast.

Image
Consensus
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4654 Postby Steve » Sun Sep 03, 2017 6:54 pm

gatorcane wrote:18Z NAVGEM shifts slightly west but still offshore SE Florida as it moves north:

Image


I've got it coming in WNW but gradually bending to NW. This would imply a Florida hit around Cocoa or so if it verified. Tough place to hit from the SE or ESE. Speed it up since it's not all filled in yet.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=200
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4655 Postby Happy Pelican » Sun Sep 03, 2017 6:57 pm

meriland29 wrote:I have a question regarding GFS and there intensity forecasts. Goes GFS tend to 'way' over or under do the intensity forecast of hurricanes (historically)?



I believe the GFS usually over intensifies storms and even more so since it was upgraded.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4656 Postby Frank P » Sun Sep 03, 2017 6:58 pm

HWRF H126 still WNW hits the southern tip of Crooked Island 921 pressure
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4657 Postby gatorcane » Sun Sep 03, 2017 6:58 pm

Yet another SW shift by the HWRF and stronger than 12Z. I feel like I am reliving Matthew watching the models shift west little by little each run :double:

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4658 Postby SootyTern » Sun Sep 03, 2017 6:58 pm

Steve wrote:18Z NAVGEM is out to 72 hours and might be .1 or .2 degrees farther west and maybe a hair more concentric in presentation.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0318&fh=72

HWRF is also basically an update of 12Z at 105 hours which is how far it is out so far. Also a more circular eye and a few millibars stronger than 12z.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=300


what a bad angle for the Bahamas; looks like nearly every island gets some serious weather
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4659 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sun Sep 03, 2017 6:59 pm

RL3AO wrote:
Kohlecane wrote:Maybe i am just getting this confused but is it not thiesable to get 5 "of rain in 24hr period i mean Houston areas achieved 45/50 " in 5 days


Very feasible. I think some people thought it was showing storm totals in inches and not 24 hour totals in millimeters.


5mm of rain over 24hrs =light rain the plot does not show mm.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4660 Postby Steve » Sun Sep 03, 2017 7:02 pm

Last edited by Steve on Sun Sep 03, 2017 7:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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